Coronavirus – One year later

On 27 January 2020 I made my first post on the Coronavirus. It was appropriately titled: Plague? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The above photo was the one I used for that post a year ago. A few quotes from that post:

“This is tragic but the worse may yet to come. The human toll is going to tragically get worse. The virus apparently can spread before symptoms show. One wonder how bad it is going to be before it is contained.”

and:

“There could also be a significant economic cost”

and:

“Don’t want to be alarmist, but this does concern me. We have not had a major world-wide “plague” since the Spanish flu epidemic of 1918-1920.”

and:

“The Coronavirus will hopefully be contained soon like SARS was, but the scenarios are frightening if it is not.”

I ended up doing a lot of other posts about the Coronavirus over this last year. In part, as a historian I am kind of aware of the significance impact various plagues have had over time. While we have not had a lot of experiences with such problems in the last hundred years, there is no lack of exposure to them in history. I could argue that if people had really properly studied their history and applied lessons from it, less people would have died. On the other hand, I am not sure I want to make that argument in a briefing to DOD on the value of historical analysis. 

U.S. versus China (GDP) – update 1

Dredging up our old posts. This one is from 13 November 2018.

U.S. versus China (GDP) | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

As of 2017, U.S. GDP was $19.391 trillion according to the World Bank. The Chinese economy was $12.238 trillion. This was 63% of the U.S. economy.

Now?

Using the World Bank figures for 2019 it is 21.428 trillion for the United States. The Chinese economy is $14.343 trillion. This is 67% of the U.S. economy and these figures pre-date the Covid crisis.

IMF has estimated 2020 figures. I have no idea how relevant or meaningful they area. For the US. it is $%20.807 trillion while for China it is 14.861 trillion. This is 71% of the U.S. economy. Don’t know how much of the Coronavirus issues affected these 2020 IMF figures. China started dealing with Coronavirus in January 2020 while it only became an issue in the United States in March of 2020. China has since brought it under control and are seeing about 200 cases a day. The United States has failed to bring it under control and are looking at something like 180,000 new cases each day. As such, I would expect that China GDP is growing faster than the United States and this will probably also be the case for 2021.

 

P.S.: The U.S. GDP declined 3.5% in 2020. See: https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/28/economy/us-fourth-quarter-gdp/index.html

Coronavirus in the DC area – weekly update 43

Colorized picture from California, 1918. Source: reddit

The number of cases and deaths from coronavirus has declined nationally. This is weekly update number 43 on the coronavirus in the DC area. Decided to maintain my very current and relevant picture.

This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 16,058 new cases. Last week it was 18,934 new cases. Twelve weeks ago there were only 4,256 new cases. We are still at least six months way from having a vaccine available for everyone.

Almost all of Europe is still struggling with controlling the spread of the disease. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, is still struggling with 11K new cases reported for yesterday.  It remains high in the UK (20K yesterday) although much better. Yesterday they reported for France (22K), Spain (36K), Germany (9K) and Russia (18K). The U.S., which has never gotten the virus under control, had 147K new cases yesterday. This is improvement. This is in contrast to places like China (139 cases), Japan (3,861), South Korea (554), Taiwan (1), Vietnam (2), Singapore (14), Australia (6) and New Zealand (5). 

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 cases thirty weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 4:22 PM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….34,403……35,865…..895
Arlington, VA……………..237,521..…..10,860……11,414…..197
Alexandria VA……………160,530………8,810…….9,236…..102
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.……54,918……58,092…..762
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.….……243……….285………6
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574..….……373………..413…….10
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850….…17,236……19,508…..173

Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011…….32,237……34,314…..295
Manassas…………………..41,641..…….3,458.,…….3,608…….33
Manassas Park………….…17,307….…..1,041…..….1,062………8
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960….…..6,887……..7,586……45
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144……..1,310……..1,468…….14
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……55,203……57,685…1,292
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……63,994……66,535…1,213
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…290,973…..307,041…5,045

 

This is a 6% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 1.64%. This last week, there were 178 new fatalities reported out of 16,058 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 1.11%. The population known to have been infected is 5.72% or one confirmed case for every 17 people. The actual rate of infection has been higher, perhaps as much as 4 times higher.

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Most of them were emptied out due to Thanksgiving and the upcoming Christmas holidays. Most of these universities are back in session except for UVA.

Harrisonburg, VA (pop. 54K) is reporting 5,223 cases (5,080 last week) and 59 deaths (up 11 these last two weeks!), while Rockingham County (pop. 81K), where the town resides, is reporting 5,434 cases (5,097 last week) and 69 deaths (up 15 these last two weeks!). This is where James Madison University is located.

Charlottesville, VA (pop. 47K) has 2,681 cases (2,586 last week) and 38 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA (pop. 109K), where the town resides, has 3,789 cases (3,575 last week) and 35 deaths. This is where UVA is located. UVA had good covid tracker website: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. This is definitely worth looking at, as you can see how they were able to bring the virus under control with a student body of 25,000.  

Lynchburg (pop. 82K), the home of Liberty University, has 6,003 cases (5,514 last week) cases and 68 deaths (8 deaths this week).

Further south, Montgomery County, VA (pop. 99K) has 6,188 cases (5,894 last week) and 61 deaths (up 13 these last two weeks!). This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 4,707 cases yesterday. Last week it was 4,526. For a long time, it pretty much ran 1,000 cases a day, neither going up or going down.

Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has 1,629 cases (1,523 last week) and 6 deaths. With summer over, not sure why this continues to grow. It is growing a lot faster than during the summer.

The Meaning of the Morning Reports – 12 July 1943

This is the follow-up post to “Morning Reports LSSAH”: Morning Reports LSSAH – 12 July 1943 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The original plan on 12 July was for the Fifth Guards Tank Army to launch it attacks from in front of Prokhorovka at 1000 AM (Moscow time). At the last minute, the Voronezh Front command moved the time up of the attack to 0830. Both the Fifth Guards Tank Army and the Fifth Guards Army stated that they attacked at 0830. The Fifth Guards Army was to the northwest of the Fifth Guards Tank Army and was engaged with Totenkopf SS Division in addition to other German units. The Fifth Guards Tank Army was primarily engaged with the Adolf Hitler SS Division (LSSAH), although it was partly engaged with its neighbor on the left, Totenkopf, and its neighbor on the right, the Das Reich SS Division.

Berlin time is one hour ahead of Moscow time, so a 0830 attack (Moscow time) occurred at 0730 (Berlin time). Added to that, the times listed are the times the reports were sent or filed, not when they occurred. In some cases, they report the time the event occurred. So for example, at 0740 Totenkopf reports an event at 0630 and another event at 0705. The same occurs at 0822 (event was at 0745), at 0825 (event was at 0740),  at 0955 (event was at 0930), and so on.

So at 0500 (Berlin time) they report hearing “tank noises.”

At 0600 they received a regimental strength attack along the line of Prochorowka-Petrowka. See map below. 

I have no idea what generated this report. This attack is at least a hour-and half before the Soviets claim they attacked. If could be a small recon in force not otherwise reported, a false report and a confused time. 

At 0630 Totenkopf is being infiltrated and fired on (at 0630 or 0740?) and under a very heavy infantry attack at 0705.  Again the 0630 and 0705 Berlin times do not match with the Fifth Guards Army 0830 Moscow time start time.

At 0822 Totenkopf, which can see most of the XVIII Tank Corps attack positions, reports “two enemy regiments and about 40 tanks from the northeast, observed entering Michailowka and hills to the southeast at 0745.” This is clearly the XVIII Tank Corps attack. The report almost perfectly matches with a 0830 Moscow time. Assuming it takes a few minutes from when the orders are given to everything gets moving, spotting this movement at 0745 Berlin time pretty much confirms that the XVIII Tank Corps attack started at 0830 Moscow time. Rotmistrov was at his command post at height 252.4 (it is on the map on the road between Prokhorovka and Voroshilov Sovkhoz). Marshal Vasilevkii, the Stavka representative, was there with him. The XXIX Tank Corps was supposed to start its attack at the same time. From height 252.4, Rotmistrov could see most of the XXIX Tank Corps and parts of the XVIII Tank Corps. So, I am guessing that the XXIX Tank Corps attack also started at 0830.

Just for reference, the Germans held height 252.2 and Oktyabrskii Sovkhoz opposite the XXIX Tank Corps.

Now, I gather one could put together an argument of a later attack by the XXIX Tank Corps from the 1000 hours report from LSSAH that says “Enemy attacks on all fronts (At 0915 hours, 40 tanks from Jamki against Swch. Stalinsk, 35 tanks from Prochorowka along the road to the southwest, 40 tanks from Petrowka against Swch. Iktjabrskiy, and the heaviest artillery support. But… I don’t think this report really does indicate that the XXIX Tank Corps attack started at 1000 Moscow time.

Anyhow, I still don’t see a strong reason to overrule multiple reports by both the Fifth Guards Tank Army and the Fifth Guards Army that they initiated the attack at 0830 Moscow time. It does seem that these German records report spotting the XVIII Tank Corps attack at 0745 Berlin time, which would be 15 minutes after the Soviets said they attacked.

Morning Reports LSSAH – 12 July 1943

Seems like I never quite get away from the Battle of Kursk and move onto other work. As a result of piece I was working on, I ended up checking back in my files. This material below is quoted (translated) from a narrative of events kept by the SS Panzer Corps (file T313, R368). For 12 July 1943 they report:

0500 hours: Morning reports
LSSAH: Contact with Totenkopf established. Numerous tank noises along our front. Heavy enemy air activity.
Das Reich: Night passed quietly. Regiment Deutschland is ready to follow the right wing of LSSAH’s attack.
Totenkopf: Strong artillery and small arms harassing fire, heavy enemy air activity.

0600 hours: Enemy attack in regimental strength along the line Prochorowka-Petrowka drive off on LSSAH’s front.

0740 hours from Totenkopf:
0630 hours slow infiltration of the flank positions at the barracks (west of Klljutschki). Very heavy artillery and salvo-gun fire. Advance to the northeast still not specified.

0740 hours from Totenkopf:
0705, very heavy infantry [attack?] 3 km east of Petrowka.

0822 hours from Totenkopf:
Two enemy regiments and about 40 tanks from the northeast, observed entering Michailowka and hills to the southeast at 0745.

0825 hours from Totenkopf:
0740 hours, an enemy battalion attacking into the Psel area from the north.

0900 hours from Totenkopf:
Last elements crossed over into the bridgehead at 0900. Using the panzer battalion that crossed over yesterday, began advancing against the barracks at 0400 hours. Barracks captured by 0715.

0910 hours from VIII Air corps:
Two Stuka groups have been dispatched against the enemy group moving southwest from Petrowka.

0955 hours from Totenkopf:
Enemy attacking west from Michailowka with tank support.
At 0930 hours our armored group jumped off from Hill 226.6 to the northeast.

1000 hours from LSSAH:
Enemy attacks on all fronts (At 0915 hours, 40 tanks from Jamki against Swch. Stalinsk, 35 tanks from Prochorowka along the road to the southwest, 40 tanks from Petrowka against Swch. Oktjabrskij, and the heaviest artillery support).

1110 hours from Totenkopf:
Enemy attack in regimental strength out of Wassiljewka to the southwest. Additional attacks south of Wesselyj and Ilinskij.

Aerial reconnaissance reports the advance of additional enemy forces, predominantly infantry, in the area south of Oboojan.

1115 hours from Totenkopf:
We will attempt to cross the Psel at Michailowka and move in behind the enemy that is south of the river.

1130 hours from LSSAH:
Localized enemy breakthrough at Hill 252.2

1145 hours from Das Reich:
Enemy attack against Kalinin and west of Storoshewoje. After repelling this attack, we plan to counterattack to seize Storoshewoje.

1315 hours from LSSAH:
[Enemy] breakthrough taken care of, all infantry attacks driven off.

Just for reference: The LSSAH is the Adolf Hitler SS Panzer Grenadier Division. It was located to the southwest of Prokhorovka. The Das Reich is the Das Reich SS Panzer Grenadier Division which was located to the south (right flank) of LSSAH. Totenkopf is the Totenkopf SS Panzer Grenadier Division which was located to the north (left flank) of LSSAH and was across the Psel River. The Russian names above are as transliterated into German (vice English).

German records were reported in “Berlin time” while Soviet records were reported in “Moscow time.” It is my understanding that at this time of the year in July 1943, Berlin time was one hour behind Moscow time.

Now, I ended up looking this back up because there is an author (Toeppel) who claims that the Soviet attack that their records state occurred at 0830 (Moscow time) actually occurred at 1000. I have in the past been dismissive of this claim, but wanted to make sure I properly examined it. I will address this in more detail in a post tomorrow morning.

Protests in Russa

People attend a rally in support of jailed Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny in Moscow, Russia January 23, 2021. REUTERS/Yuri Belyat

Well, large protests in Belarus have disappeared but they are still doing a number of smaller protests. This weekend the Belarus police detained/arrested around 100 protestors. Meanwhile protests have exploded in Russia. On Saturday, they started in the far east in the Siberian cities of Vladivostok and Kharbarovsk and erupted across dozens of cities across Russia (90 cities according to one count). They culminated in large protests in Moscow and St. Petersburg. The Russian government claimed 4,000 protestors in Moscow, but it looked like a lot more than that in the videos I have seen  One estimate was 15,000 gathered in and around Pushkin Square in the center of Moscow (picture of protestors in Pushkin Square is shown above). The police have detained/arrested over 3,300 according to one independent Russian source (OVD-Info). 

We have seen continued protests in Kharborovsk that have been going on since July  2020, but this is a nation-wide explosion. Not sure how to evaluate it or measure its impact. We have seen several governments overthrown in Eastern Europe: Euromaiden (Ukraine: 2013-2014),  the Orange Revolution (Ukraine: 2004-2005) and the Rose Revolution (Georgia: 2003). Is this serious enough to threaten Putin’s hold on power? I have no way of evaluating that at the moment. I did think that Lukashenko, President of Belarus, was close to being removed, and that may well be the case yet, especially if the protests in Belarus get rejuvenated.

By the way, the Aleksei Navalny video that is partly responsible stirring up these protests is here: Дворец для Путина. История самой большой взятки – YouTube

It is two hours, in Russian with English subtitles and I heard it is worth watching, is well researched and makes a fairly convincing case. It has 84.6 86.4 93.3 million views so far.

Old Questions

We have over a thousand posts on this blog. Always interesting to go back and look a few of these older ones.

We had one blog post that simply asked on 9 November, 2016, after Donald Trump had been elected: What was going to be his foreign policy/national security policy. The old post is here: Questions | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The answers are:

1D (Afghanistan: Decrease U.S. effort)

2B (Iraq: Decrease U.S. effort)

3B (Syria: Decrease U.S. effort)

4C (Ukraine: Keep the same)

5C (Russia: Try to tone it down)

6D (NATO: Force our NATO allies to contribute more)

7B (Georgia: Continue working with them: Partnership for Peace)

8A (Iran: Cancel current deal and try to renegotiate)

9A (Yemen: Keep the same (remain disengaged))

10? (War on Terror)

11A (Defense Budget: Increase defense budget)

12? (East Asia)

13A (Trade: TTP cancelled)

14D (Oil and Climate Change: Interest and funding for clean energy declined)

 

It was followed-up on by this post on 14 December 2016: Questions II | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

U.S. Party in Power and the Defense Budget

The U.S. Defense budget goes up and down. This is sometimes related to external threats. It is often more closely correlated with which party is in power.

Below is the chart of who held the House, Senate and Presidency since 1855.

Below is a graph of the U.S. Defense budget as a percent of GDP from 1792 to 2016. We are not going to discuss this graph, I just added it because I think it is a real cool graphic:

On the other hand, this chart is worth examining further, as it is the U.S. Defense budget in constant 2009 dollars from 1900-2018.

Just picking up the graph from 1972 (after the Vietnam War) one can see (I do recommend copying and blowing up this graphic) that defense spending was flat from 1972-19799 and then started increasing in 1980 under Carter (Democrat) and continued increasing under Reagan (Republican). That increase flattened off and then budget declined after 1989 under Bush (Republican). That budget decline put an end to Trevor Dupuy’s HERO and DMSI organizations, and he reformed in 1992 as The Dupuy Institute. There was a budget increase in 1991, courtesy of the Gulf War and then it continued to decline until 1996 under Clinton (Democrat), where the budget again leveled off. Starting around 2001 under Bush Jr (Republican), the budget again continue to grow, peaking in 2011 and then declining under Obama (Democrat) and leveling off in 2015. It was as a result of that decline that The Dupuy Institute ended up de-staffing, something that we have never recovered from. In 2018 under Trump (Republican) the budget again started to increase (although TDI has not benefited from this increase).

So, the pattern is that the budget does indeed decline or remain flat under Democrats and usually rises under Republicans. There are exceptions to that (1980-1981, 1990-1993, 2000-2001, 2010-2011). But if the pattern holds true, then one is probably safe to assume that it will again decline over the next couple of years down to a lower level. The pattern is that these declines level off at a lower level that is often about 80% or so of the previous budget high. We see that in 1972-1979, 1996-2001 and to a much lesser extent in 2013-2017.

Coronavirus in the DC area – weekly update 42

Colorized picture from California, 1918. Source: reddit

Inauguration of a new president today in D.C. Meanwhile the number of cases and deaths from coronavirus continue to rise nationally, although the rate of has declined. This is weekly update number 42 on the coronavirus in the DC area. Decided to maintain my very current and relevant picture.

This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 18,934 new cases. Last week it was 17,973 new cases. Eleven weeks ago there were only 4,256 new cases. We are still at least six months way from having a vaccine available for everyone.

Almost all of Europe is still struggling with controlling the spread of the disease. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, is still struggling with 10K new cases reported for yesterday.  It remains high in the UK (33K yesterday), France (24K), Spain (34K), Germany (12K) and Russia (21K). The U.S., which has never gotten the virus under control, had 177K new cases yesterday. This is a downward trend. This is in contrast to places like China (159 cases), Japan (5,284), South Korea (403), Taiwan (6), Vietnam (1), Singapore (30), Australia (9) and New Zealand (5). 

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 cases twenty-nine weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 11:22 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….32,600…..34,403……863
Arlington, VA……………..237,521..…..10,277..…10,860……189
Alexandria VA……………160,530………8,307……8,810……..96
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.……50,705…..54,918……733
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.….……210………243……….6
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574..….…..342………373……..10
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850….…15,711…..17,236……170
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011…….28,987…..32,237……278
Manassas…………………..41,641..…….3,184……3,458.,……30
Manassas Park………….…17,307….…..1,004……1,041..,..….8
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960….……6,192……6,887…….35
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144……..1,180…….1,310…….13
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……52,368…..55,203…1,245
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308…..60,972……63,994…1,191
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…272,039…290,973….4,867

This is a 7% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 1.67%. This last week, there were 156 new fatalities reported out of 18,934 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 0.82%. The population known to have been infected is 5.42% or one confirmed case for every 18 people. The actual rate of infection has been higher, perhaps as much as 4 times higher.

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Most of them were emptied out due to Thanksgiving and the upcoming Christmas holidays. Most of these universities are back in session except for UVA.

Harrisonburg, VA (pop. 54K) is reporting 5,080 cases (4,888 last week) and 55 deaths (up 7 this last week!), while Rockingham County (pop. 81K), where the town resides, is reporting 5,097 cases (4,737 last week) and 63 deaths (up 9 this last week!). This is where James Madison University is located.

Charlottesville, VA (pop. 47K) has 2,586 cases (2,482 last week) and 35 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA (pop. 109K), where the town resides, has 3,575  cases (3,366 last week) and 34 deaths. This is where UVA is located. UVA had a covid tracker which is worth looking at: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. This is definitely worth looking at, as you can see how they were able to bring the virus under control with a student body of 25,000.  

Lynchburg (pop. 82K), the home of Liberty University, has 5,514 cases (5,040 last week) cases and 60 deaths.

Further south, Montgomery County, VA (pop. 99K) has 5,894 cases (5,691 last week) and 54 deaths (up 6 this last week!). This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 4,526 cases yesterday. Last week it was 4,561. For a long time, it pretty much ran 1,000 cases a day, neither going up or going down.

Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has 1,523 cases (1,346 last week) and 6 deaths. With summer over, not sure why this continues to grow. It is growing a lot faster than during the summer.

Censoring Remarks?

We usually don’t place any restrictions on incoming remarks. So far, this has not been an issue except for one remark a while back that looked suspicious. Our commentators on this blog have always been very respectful. We received another comment the other day that seemed odd. It referenced a paper on Kursk by an author I was not familiar with. A quick glance at the paper clearly showed that this was a bizarre piece not worthy of further attention. So, do I post the remark and let each person make their decision on the referenced paper, or do I decide that this should get no more attention and not post the remark?

Let me quote the third paragraph from the paper which will show why I really don’t want to bring any attention to it:

“To support his enunciation, Kellerhoff quotes only one source – an obscure British historian Ben Wheatley, who allegedly found some obscure aerial photographs in American archives 75 years after the war. And those photographs, allegedly made by the Luftwaffe planes, are Kellerhoff’s only argument for what he called the “disastrous defeat of the Red Army at Prokhorovka.”

Now, I have not read the referenced article by Kellerhoff, but I am familiar with Dr. Wheatley’s work and have blogged about it before. I also went into those same photo files over a decade ago and there is a 32-page aerial photo section in my big Kursk book. He did not reference my work in his paper. I found out about these aerial photo files from John Sloan, a retired Sovietologist who runs the Xenophon Group (link is in our sidebar). So, these files are certainly not “allegedly found” and “allegedly made by Luftwaffe planes.” They are also not that “obscure” (nor is Dr. Wheatley). A couple of Italian Advanced Squad Leader module designers are currently developing their game map sheets from these Luftwaffe aerial photos. See: http://advancingfire.com/

The rest of the article is filled with similar crap. It was bad enough that if I posted it, then I would be obligated to immediately respond to it.  A point-by-point refutation of a ten-page paper would take a while. It sometimes takes more time to refute bad “research” then it takes for the author to make their claims. I do have better and more important, things to do with my time right now. Therefore, I decided not publish the remark and give the referenced article any visibility.

It does appear that the comment is from Russia or a Russian although they use a Chinese appearing name. We will, with some judiciousness, not publish remarks that are obviously deceptive, propaganda-like and based upon poor data. The one other such remark that we did not publish was similar.