Monthly Archives: March 2020

Coronavirus Mortality Rates update 12

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Well, the coronavirus is now the lead story of every news service. There are a lot of real experts now on TV talking about this. Not sure how much longer I will continue these coronavirus updates. But, since my last post the number of cases is up dramatically, sadly so are the number of deaths, and of significance, so is the mortality rate. In countries that previously had low mortality rates, like Germany, they have now risen to above 1%.

China continues to report very few new cases. On 11 March they reported 80.9K cases. Twenty days later they are at 82.3K cases. So it is only growing by around 70 cases a day. The Wednesday before last it was 81,102, last Tuesday it was 81,588 now it is 82,276. This is 1,174 new reported cases in thirteen days or 90 cases a day. This is not quite contained. The same story with S. Korea (and North Korea has no cases?). If one relaxes some of the restrictions for the sake of getting the economy working again, what happens? I understand that Hong Kong has had this experience.

 

Country……….Cases……Deaths……Rate

World Wide……803,650….39,033….…4.86%

United States….164,785……2,777+..….1.69%

Italy………..……101,739….11,591…….11.39%

Spain………..…..94,417……8,189….…..8.67%

China.……………82,276……3,290+.…….3.89%

Germany…….…..67,051….….682………1.02%

France……………45,209…..3,024……….6.69%

Iran…………….…44,605…..2,898……….6.50%

United Kingdom…22,465…..1,411…….…6.28%

Switzerland………16,176…….373………..2.31%

Belgium….………..12,775…….705…….….5.52%

Netherlands.……..12,662….1,039………..8.21%

Turkey…………….10,827……168……..…1.55%

Austria…………..…9,974…….128………..1.28%

S. Korea……….….9,786…….162………..1.65%

Canada………….…7,448……..84….……1.13%

Portugal.…..………..7,443……160…….….2.15%

Israel…….…………..4,831……..17…….…0.35%

Brazil………………..4,681…….167….……3.57%

Norway………….…4,599..…….36…….…0.78%

Australia……………4,559..…….12….……0.26%

Sweden…..…………4,435…….180……….0.83%

Czech Rep…………3,002………25…….…0.83%

Denmark..….………2,994………90………3.01%

Ireland………………2,910………54.………1.86%

Malaysia….…..……2,766…..….43…….…1.55%

Chile..……………….2,449……..…8….……0.33%

Russia…….…….…2,337….…..17……….0.73%

Romania……………2,245…..….72…….…3.21%

Poland………………2,215…..….32…..….1.44%

Philippines…….……2,084………88………4.22%

Luxembourg.……….1,988….…..22………1.11%

Ecuador.….…………1,966………62………2.87%

Japan………….……1,953…..….56.….…..2.87%

Pakistan……….……1,865….….25….…….1.34%

Thailand.…..………..1,651….….10.…….…0.61%

Saudi Arabia……..…1,563………10………0.64%

Indonesia….…………1,528…….136……….8.90%

Finland….……….…..1,418……..17………1.20%

South Africa….…..…1,326…….…3……….0.23%

India…………………..1,251………32.……….2.56%

Greece..….……….….1,212….….46…….…3.806%

Iceland…………..……1,135…….…2…….…0.18%

Mexico……………..…1,094……..28…….…2.56%

Panama……………….1,075….….27………2.51%

 

Forty-four countries around the world with over a thousand reported cases. Last week it was 26 countries, the week before that it was 16 countries. A few other entities of interest to this author that have less than a thousand cases so far:

 

Argentina…..……..……966……….25….……2.59%

Peru…..………………….950……….24….……2.53%

Singapore…..……..……926……..…3…….…0.32%

Dominican Rep..…….…901….……42….……4.66%

Slovenia……………….…802.………15………1.87%

Colombia…………….….798.………14……….1.75%

Serbia…………………….785.………16…….…2.04%

Hong Kong….……………714……..…4….……0.56%

Egypt…………..…………656……….41……….6.25%

New Zealand…………….647……..…1…….…0.15%

Iraq…..……………….…..630..……..46…..……7.30%

Algeria………..…..………584………35………..5.99%

Morocco………..………..574………33………..5.75%

Bahrain……….….………567……..…4………..0.71%

Ukraine…………………..549……….13……..…2.37%

Hungary………………….492.………16…….….3.25%

Lebanon……..………..…463..……..12…..…….2.59%

Bosnia………………..….411.……….12…….….2.92%

Andorra………………….370.…….…..8….…….2.16%

Tunisia……………….…..362.………10….…….2.76%

Taiwan………………..…322…………5………..1.55%

Burkina Faso……………246.…..…..12…….….4.88%

Albania……………….….243.……….13…….….5.35%

San Marino…………..…230………..25……….10.87%

Vietnam….…………..…207……….…0…….….0%

Afghanistan…………..…174….……..4…….….2.30%

Palestine…..…………….117…………1….…….0.95%

North Korea..…………..0……..…..…0…..….…0%

Syria……….……..……..0……..……..0…..….…0%

Yemen…………….……..0……..……..0….…..…0%

Libya……….…………….0………..…..0….…..…0%

Diamond Princess….712……………11……..….1.54%

 

Part of my concern is the spread of the disease across the Middle East and Central Asia. There are a number of countries in the region still at war, including Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq and Yemen. How does one contain a virus in a country at war? Do they then serve as a vector for the rest of the countries in the region?

Data is from Johns Hopkins CSSE 3/24/20 as of 10:01.43 AM EST. The data page is no longer showing count of less then 3 deaths in their tabulation, but shows it on their map. It makes it harder to count all the deaths in the United States as they are reported by country. The United States now has over 3,000 deaths. It is here: Johns Hopkins CSSE

 

A few more observations:

  1. It does appear that at best the mortality rate is around 1% if: 1) there is good health care and 2) there is good reporting.
    1. The 1% figure appears to be borne out by the reporting from South Korea and the more contained environment of the cruise ships.
      1. Still the South Korean mortality rate continues to grow to now 1.65%. I gather they have tested more than 300,000 people.
      2. The Diamond Princess deaths are at 11, for a 1.54% mortality rate. Is the mortality rate for an older population hovering around 2%?
    2. There are now few European countries that are reporting a rate of less than 1%. In most cases, it would appear that the mortality rate is going to increase over time. This has happened with German, Switzerland, Austria, Norway and Ireland. Last week they were all around 0.50%, now they are all over 1%.
      1. Germany is at  1.02%. Switzerland is at 2.31%, Austria is at 1.28%,  Norway is at 0.78% and Ireland is at 1.86%.
      2. It appears that these numbers will continue to go up as more data comes in and unfortunately, more people become seriously ill.
    3. The actual mortality rate is a big issue if one is going to do any estimate of potential impact (population * percent infected * mortality rate and modified by improvements in care and developments of vaccines). I have been thinking about post about this at some point…but…
      1. Do I do an estimate based upon a rate of 0.5%, 1%, 1.5% or 2%? Makes a big difference.
  2. Needless to say, countries will high mortality rate obviously have a lot more cases than they are reporting. If mortality really is around 1% or less, then it appears there are already over a million cases in Italy and over a half-million cases in Spain.
    1. Now it could be that the natural mortality rate in Italy will be higher than what we are seeing for S. Korea. This will be explored in a future post.
  3. San Marino has a population of 33,562. With 230 cases, this makes it the “most infected” country in the world with 0.69% infected. San Marino also has a very high mortality rate at around 11%. They may well have over 7% of the country infected.
    1. The Holy See (Vatican City) is second with 6 cases in around 1,000 people (0.60%)
    2. Andorra with a population of 76,177 and 370 cases I gather is now third at 0.48%. Is Andorra a snapshot of the future of Spain like San Marino looks like a snapshot of the future of Italy?
    3. Italy with 60,317,546 people and 101,739 cases is fourth (0.17%), maybe (I haven’t checked every country).
      1. If they really have over a million cases then we are looking at almost 2% infected.
  4. I still suspect 44 U.S. passengers from the Diamond Princess are being double counted in CSSE database. They are now listed as a subset of the Diamond Princess button, but I suspect they are still being counted in the U.S. totals.
    1. Also, Hong Kong’s 714 cases are also counted under China. I just choose to separate out Hong Kong because there is/was a political protest movement of some significance going on there.

 

There is now a single line on this graph, which represents the entire world. The “Total Recovered” is reported at 172,869 out of 809,608 cases and 39,545 deaths (as of 11.11.10 AM).

Coronavirus Mortality Rates update 11

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Well, this situation is now devastating and depressing. The coronavirus is now spreading across the world rapidly and does not appear to be under control in many countries. The curve has turned upwards sharply since early March. More than one national leader needs to be held responsible for their failure to properly and quickly respond to this. There was warning.

China continues to report very few new cases. On 11 March they had 80.9K cases. Fourteen days later they are at 81.6K cases. So it is only growing by around 50 cases a day. Last Wednesday morning it was 81,102, and it is now 81,588. This is 486 cases in six days or 81 cases a day. This is not quite contained. The same story with S. Korea (and North Korea has no cases?). If one relaxes some of the restrictions for the sake of getting the economy working again, what happens? I understand that Hong Kong has had this experience.

 

Country……….Cases……Deaths……Rate

World Wide……395,647….17,241….…4.40%

China.……………81,588……3,269……..4.01%

Italy………………63,927……6,077……..9.51%

United States……46,485……….551…….1.19%

Spain……………..39,673……2,696….…6.80%

Germany…………31,260….…..132…….0.42%

Iran………….……24,811……1,934……..7.79%

France……………20,149………860…….4.27%

Switzerland…….…9,117…….….43…….0.47%

S. Korea…….…….9,037………120……..1.33%

United Kingdom.…6,733………335…..…4.98%

Netherlands.………5,578.….….276……..4.95%

Austria………….…4,876..……….25………0.51%

Belgium….….….…4,269………122…..….2.86%

Norway……………2,715..……….12………0.44%

Portugal.…..………2,362….…….29……….1.23%

Sweden…..….……2,272…………36……….1.58%

Canada………….…2,088……..…24….…..1.15%

Australia……………2,044..…………8….…..0.39%

Brazil………………1,965…….…..34………1.73%

Denmark..….……..1,703……..….32………1.88%

Israel…….…………1,656…………..2………0.12%

Malaysia….…..……1,624…………15…..…0.92%

Turkey…………..…1,529…..….…37…..…2.42%

Czech Rep……..…1,289………..…2…..…0.16%

Japan………………1,140..……….42.……..3.68%

Ireland………..……1,125……….…6.………0.53%

 

Twenty-six countries around the world with over a thousand cases. Below is a list of some of the rest. Almost all of them will probably be over a thousand cases soon. These figures are heavily influenced by the degree of testing.

 

Country……….…Cases……Deaths……Rate

Ecuador.….……….…981……..…18………1.83%

Chile..……………..…922………….2….…..0.22%

Pakistan……….…….918……….…7….…..0.76%

Luxembourg.…….….875………..…8………0.91%

Thailand.…..…………827……….…4………0.48%

Poland………………..799……….…9…..….1.12%

Finland….……….…..792……….…1………0.12%

Saudi Arabia…………767…………..1………0.13%

Romania………….…762………..…8………1.04%

Greece..….……….….695……….…6………0.86%

Indonesia….……..….686…..……55……….8.02%

Iceland…………..…..648……….…2…….…0.31%

Singapore…..……….558…………2….……0.36%

South Africa…..…..…554……….…4……….0.72%

Philippines…….…….552………..35….……6.34%

India……………….…519…………10.…..…..1.93%

Qatar..………….…….501..……..…0………..0%

Russia…….…………495……….…1…….….0.20%

Slovenia….…………..480……….…4….……0.83%

Peru………………..…395……..…..5………..1.27%

Bahrain……….………390……….…3………..0.77%

Hong Kong….…….…386……….…4…..……1.04%

Estonia…..…….…..…369……….…0…..……0%

Mexico……………..…367……….…4…..……1.09%

Egypt…………..……..366……..….19……..….5.19%

 

A few other entities of interest to this author that have less than 366 cases so far:

 

Iraq…..……………..316..…………27…..…..8.54%

Lebanon……..….…304..……..……4…..…..1.32%

Algeria………..…….230…….……17………..7.39%

Taiwan………………215…………….2………..0.93%

San Marino…………187………….21……….11.23%

Hungary…………….187.………..…9…….….4.81%

New Zealand………155……………0……..…0%

Vietnam….…………123………….…0…….….0%

Ukraine………………97.…….….…3…………3.09%

Azerbaijan..……..…..87………….…1…….….1.15%

Afghanistan…………42….…………1…….….2.38%

Palestine…..………..26?……….….0….…….0%

North Korea..………..0……..…..…0…..….…0%

Syria……….…..……..0……..……..0…..….…0%

Yemen……….………..0……..……..0….…..…0%

Libya……….………….0………..…..0….…..…0%

 

Diamond Princess…712………11……..….1.54%

 

Part of my concern is the spread of the disease across the Middle East and Central Asia. There are a number of countries in the region still at war, including Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq and Yemen. How does one contain a virus in a country at war? Do they then serve as a vector for the rest of the countries in the region?

Data is from Johns Hopkins CSSE 3/24/20 as of 9:54.39 AM EST. It is here: Johns Hopkins CSSE

 

A few more observations:

  1. It does appear that at best the mortality rate is around 1% if: 1) there is good health care and 2) there is good reporting.
    1. The 1% figure appears to be borne out by the reporting from South Korea and the more contained environment of the cruise ships.
      1. Still the South Korean mortality rates stands at 1.33%. I gather they have tested more than 300,000 people.
      2. The Diamond Princess deaths have now gone up to 11, for a 1.54% mortality rate. Is the mortality rate for an older population hovering around 2%?
    2. There are a few European countries with a reported rate of around 0.50%.
      1. Germany is at  0.42%
      2. Switzerland, Austria, Norway and Ireland are also in this range.
      3. Is this the best case scenario….or will these numbers continue to go up as more data comes in and unfortunately, more people become more ill. The German numbers do keep going up.
    3. The actual mortality rate is a big issue if one is going to do any estimate of potential impact (population * percent infected * mortality rate and modified by improvements in care and developments of vaccines). I have been thinking about post about this at some point…but…
      1. Do I do an estimate based upon a rate of 0.5%, 1%, 1.5% or 2%? Makes a big difference.
  2. Needless to say, countries will high mortality rate obviously have a lot more cases than they are reporting. If mortality really is around 1% or less, then it appears there are already over 600,000 cases in Italy, over 250,000 cases in Spain, and maybe over 200,000 cases in Iran.
    1. Now it could be that the natural mortality rate in Italy will be higher than what we are seeing for S. Korea. This will be explored in a future post.
  3. San Marino has a population of 33,562. With 187 cases, this makes it the “most infected” country in the world with 0.56% infected. San Marino also has a very high mortality rate at over 11%. They may well have almost 6% of the country infected.
    1. Italy with 60,317,546 people and 63,927 cases is third (0.11%)
      1. If they really have over 600,000 cases then we are looking at almost 1%.
    2. The Holy See (Vatican City) is second with 1 case in around 1,000 people (0.10%)
  4. I still suspect 44 U.S. passengers from the Diamond Princess are being double counted in CSSE database. They are now listed as a subset of the Diamond Princess button, but I suspect they are still being counted in the U.S. totals.
    1. Also, Hong Kong’s 386 cases are also counted under China. I just choose to separate out Hong Kong because there is a political protest movement of some significance going on there.
  5. Palestine was reported weeks ago to have 26 cases. Now the CSSE database does not report on Palestine. Not sure where those 26 cases went to. Are they reported under Israel?

 

There is now a single line on this graph, which represents the entire world. The “Total Recovered” is reported at 103,317 out of 395,647 cases (and 17,241 deaths).

The Three TMCI Reports

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The Military Conflict Institute (TMCI) decided after a decade of existence that maybe the best use of their time was to write some papers and reports. So this they did over the years, all volunteer (unfunded) work done by some of the “graybeards” of the operations research and combat analysis community.

These three reports are provided here and will be available for as long as this blog exists:

First is called Anatomy of a Combat Model and was written in May 1995 by Lawrence J. Low. It was “prepared as part of a long-term contribution to the field.” It is 81 pages.:

Anatomy of a Combat Model (TMCI)

The second paper was from 1997 and is called A Concise Theory of Combat. It was written by Edmund L. DuBois, Wayne P. Hughes, Jr., and Lawrence J. Low “…in collaboration with The Military Conflict Institute.” It is 172 pages.

A Concise Theory of Combat (TMCI)

The third paper was from 2013 and is called A Philosophy of War Its primary authors were Frank Benedict, Rosser Bobbitt, Ted DuBois, Chuck Hawkins, John Honig, Wayne Hughes, John McIver, Roger Mickelson, Clayton Newell, Itzhak Ravid, Russ Vane, Gene Visco and Greg Wilcox. It is 245 pages.

A Philosophy of War (TMCI)

I would also argue that the books Understanding War and Attrition by Trevor Dupuy and my books America’s Modern Wars and War by Numbers are also very much in line with the original mission of TMCI , which Trevor Dupuy co-founded.

Coronavirus Mortality Rates update 10

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Well, situation keeps getting worse, and in a lot of different places in the world. The number of cases outside of China is growing rapidly and does not appear to be slowing down. China continues to report very few new cases. On 11 March they had 80.9K cases. Ten day later they are at 81.3K cases. So it is only growing by less than 40 cases a day. Still. Wednesday morning it was 81,102, and it is now 81,250. This is 148 cases in two days. This is not quite contained. If one relaxes some of the restrictions for the sake of getting the economy working again, what happens?

 

Country……….Cases……Deaths……Rate

World Wide……246,276….10,038….…4.08%

China.……………81,250……3,247……..4.00%

Italy………………41,035……3,405……..8.30%

Iran………….……18,407……1,284……..6.98%

Spain……………..18,077………833…..…4.61%

Germany………..16,290….….…44….….0.27%

United States……14,250….…..205….….1.44%

France……………10,891………371….….3.41%

S. Korea…….…….8,652….……94….….1.09%

Switzerland…….…4,164….…….43….….1.03%

United Kingdom.…3,297……….144…..…4.37%

Netherlands.………2,468.……….76……….3.08%

Austria………….…2,203..……..…6…..….0.27%

Norway……………1,802..…..……7………0.39%

Belgium….….….…1,795……..…21……….1.17%

Sweden…..….……1,439……..…11…..…..0.76%

Denmark..….……..1,225……….…6……….0.49%

 

Sixteen countries around the world with over a thousand cases. Below is a list of some of the rest. They are mostly European but countries from all over the world are joining the list. Not sure how much more extensive testing influences these figures.

 

Country……..…Cases……Deaths……Rate

Japan………………943..……….33.……..3.50%

Malaysia….…..……900……….…2………0.22%

Canada……..………872…………12….…..1.38%

Portugal.…..….……785……….…4……….0.51%

Czech Rep…………694……….…0…..…..0%

Australia……………681..…..….…6….…..0.88%

Israel…….…….……677…………..0….…..0%

Brazil………………..621………..…6………0.97%

Ireland……………….557……….…3.………0.54%

Greece..….……..….464………..…6………1.29%

Qatar..………..…….460..……….…0…..…..0%

Pakistan……….……454………..…2…..…..0%

Finland….…………..400……….…0….……0%

Turkey……………….359…..….….4….……1.11%

Poland………….……355…………5……….1.41%

Singapore…..……….345…………0….……0%

Chile..……………..…342………….2………..0.58%

Luxembourg.….…….335…..…..…4…….…1.19%

Iceland…………..…..330……….…1….……0.30%

Slovenia….……..…..319………..…1….……0.31%

Indonesia….….…….311…………25……….8.04%

Bahrain………………278…….……1………..0.36%

Romania……………277………..…0…….….0%

Saudi Arabia…….…274…………..0…..……0%

Thailand.…..……….272………..…1…………0.37%

Estonia…..…………267……..……0…………0%

Ecuador.….…..……260……………3……..….1.15%

Egypt………………..256……..….…7….,,,.….2.73%

Hong Kong….…..…256……..….…4…..……1.56%

Peru…………………234…….…..…1……..….0.43%

Philippines………….217…………..17…………7.83%

Russia…….……..…199……………1…….….0.50%

India……………….…194….……..…4.…..…..2.06%

Iraq…..……………..192..…..….…13………..6.77%

Lebanon……..….…157..……..……3….……1.91%

South Africa……..…150……..…..…4……….2.67%

Kuwait……….……..148..…..………0…..…..0%

San Marino…………144…….…….14….……9.72%

UAE……………..….140……..…..…0……….0%

Panama……..…..…137…..….…….1…..…..0.73%

Taiwan…………..…135…..….…….2…..…..1.48%

 

A few other entities of interest to this author that have less than 135 cases so far:

 

Mexico…….….……118………..…1….……0.85%

Algeria…….….……..90……………9………10.00%

Vietnam….……….…85….…..……0……….0%

Azerbaijan..……..…..44…….…..…1……….2.27%

New Zealand………..39……………0…….…0%

Ukraine……………….26.………..…3….….11.54%

Palestine…..…..……26?………….0……….0%

Afghanistan…….……22….……..…0……….0%

North Korea..…………0…….…..…0…….…0%

Syria……….…………..0…….……..0…….…0%

Yemen……….….……..0…………..0……..…0%

Libya……….……….…..0…………..0……..…0%

 

Diamond Princess….712…………7……..….0.98%

 

Part of my concern is the spread of the disease across the Middle East and Central Asia. There are a number of countries in the region still at war, including Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq. How does one contain a virus in a country at war? Do they then serve as a vector for the rest of the countries in the region?

Data is from Johns Hopkins CSSE 3/18/20 as of 9:43.03 AM EST. It was only updated twice while I was writing this. It is here: Johns Hopkins CSSE

 

A few more observations:

  1. It does appear that at best the mortality rate is around 1% if: 1) there is good health care and 2) there is good reporting. That appears to be borne out by the reporting from South Korea and the more contained environment of the cruise ships.
    1. The S. Korean mortality rate is now above 1%. They have tested more than 240,000 of their people. This is about a good and complete reporting as we are going to see in the real world. It is getting harder to make the argument that the mortality rate is much less than 1%, even assuming a large number of cases were not reported.
    2. Most other countries with a reported rate of less than 1% I suspect have just recently gotten a number of new cases and these figures will be unfortunately changing over time (for example Germany).
    3. See the comment to update 9. The poster I gather is making the argument that the actual mortality rate is well less than 1%, based upon the example of Germany. This bears watching.
    4. Of course, what is the actual mortality rate is a big issue if one is going to do any estimate of potential impact (population * percent infected * mortality rate and modified by improvements in care and developments of vaccines). I have been thinking about post about this at some point…but…
  2. If mortality really is around 1% or less, then it appears there are already over 340,000 in cases Italy and over 120,000 cases in Iran.
    1. Now it could be that the natural mortality rate in Italy will be higher than what we are seeing for S. Korea. This will be explored in a future post.
  3. San Marino has a population of 33,562. With 144 cases, this makes it the “most infected” country in the world with 0.43% infected.
    1. The Holy See (Vatican City) is second with 1 case in around 1,000 people (0.10%)
    2. Italy with 60,317,546 people and 41,035 cases is third (0.068%)
      1. If they really have over 340,000 cases then we are looking at almost 0.6%, a figure similar to San Marino (which makes sense).
  4. I still suspect 44 U.S. passengers from the Diamond Princess are being double counted in CSSE database. They are now listed as a subset of the Diamond Princess button, but I suspect they are still being counted in the U.S. totals.
    1. Also, Hong Kong’s 256 cases are also counted under China. I just choose to separate out Hong Kong because there is a political protest movement of some significance going on there.
  5. Palestine was reported last week to have 26 cases. Now the CSSE database does not report on Palestine. Not sure where those 26 cases went to. Are they reported under Israel?

 

On the graph at the top of this post, the new top line is the number of coronavirus cases in “other locations” (meaning outside of mainland China). The original top line is the number of coronavirus cases in Mainland China (People’s Republic of China). The next line is the “Total Recovered” which is reported at 86,036 out of 246,276 cases (and 10,038 deaths). It has now just passed the Mainland China line.

Coronavirus Mortality Rates update 9

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Sadly, there is plenty still to blog about with the coronavirus. The picture is changing enough from day-to-day that these updates are getting more frequent. At this point multiple countries have been shut down. They are now starting to shut down cities in the U.S. Yesterday Steven Mnuchin, our treasury secretary, was talking about possibly 20% unemployment. This thing is going to have a big impact and it is affecting everything (including national security issues and future defense spending). I will be blogging about this for a while.

China continues to report very few new cases. For the last eight days they have consistently reported 80.9K to 81K cases. So it is only growing by a few dozen cases a day. Friday it was 80,945, Saturday it was 80,976, and as of Sunday night it was 81,020 and this morning (Wed) it is 81,102. This is 157 new cases in the last four or five days or less than 40 cases a day. So, almost under control, but not quite. If one relaxes some of the restrictions for the sake of getting the economy working again, what happens?

 

Country……….Cases……Deaths……Rate

World Wide……204,255….8,243…..…4.04%

China.……………81,102….3,237…..…3.99%

Italy………………31,506….2,503…..….7.94%

Iran………….…..17,361…..1,135…..….6.54%

Spain……….…..13,910..……623………4.48%

Germany………..10,082………26…..….0.26%

S. Korea…….……8,413………84…..….1.00%

France…………….7,696……..148…..….1.92%

United States…….6,510…….114…..….1.83%

Switzerland………2,700……….27…..….1.00%

Netherlands.……..2,056.…..….58.….….2.15%

United Kingdom…1,961……….71………3.62%

Norway……………1,527..….……6………0.39%

Belgium….…….…1,486………14…..…..0.94%

Austria……………1,471..…….…3……….0.20%

Sweden…..………1,212…………8….…..0.66%

Denmark..………..1,091…………4…..….0.37%

 

Sixteen countries around the world with over a thousand cases. Below is a list of some of the rest. They are mostly European but countries from all over the world are joining the list. Not sure how much more extensive testing influences these figures.

 

Country……..…Cases……Deaths……Rate

Japan………………889..……….29.……..3.26%

Malaysia….…..……790…………2………0.25%

Canada……..……..598………….8….…..1.34%

Australia……………568..….….…6….…..1.06%

Czech Rep…………464……….…0….…..0%

Portugal.…..….……448……….…2……….0.45%

Qatar..……………….442..……..…0….…..0%

Israel…….…….……427…………..0….…..0%

Greece..….……..….387……….…5………1.29%

Brazil……………….350…..…..…2………0.57%

Finland….…………..336……….…0………0%

Singapore…..………313…………0………0%

Ireland……………..292……….…2.……..0.68%

Slovenia….………..275…..…..…1………0.36%

Estonia…..…………258…………0………0%

Bahrain………….…256…………1….…..0.39%

Pakistan………….…256…………0…..…..0%

Poland………….…..251…………5……….1.99%

Iceland………….…..250…..….…1….……0.40%

Romania……………246…………0……….0%

Chile..………………238………….2…..….0.84%

Indonesia….……….227………..19……….8.37%

Thailand.…..……….212…………1………0.47%

Luxembourg.….…..203…..…..…2………0.99%

Philippines…….…..202………..19….…..9.41%

Egypt………………196……….…6…..….3.06%

Hong Kong……..…181……….…4………2.21%

Saudi Arabia………171…………..0………0%

Iraq…..……………..164..…….…12…..….7.32%

India…….….………152………..…3.……..1.97%

Russia…….…….…147………..…0……….0%

Kuwait……….…….142..…………0…..…..0%

Lebanon……..….…133..…………3….……2.26%

San Marino…………119………….11….…..9.24%

Peru………….………117………..…4……….3.42%

South Africa…..……116………..…4……….3.45%

UAE……………..….113………..…0…..….0%

Ecuador.….…..……111………..…2……….1.80%

Taiwan…………..…100…..……….1…..…..1.00%

Turkey…………….….98…..……….1….……1.02%

Slovakia…………..….97………..…1….……1.03%

Mexico…….….………93………..…0….……0%

 

A few other entities of interest to this author that have less than 98 cases so far:

 

Vietnam….……….…68…………0……..…..0%

Azerbaijan..….………28……..…1………….3.57%

Palestine…..…………26?……….0………….0%

Afghanistan….………22……..…0………….0%

New Zealand…….….20……..…0…………0%

Ukraine…………..…..14.…….…2…….….14.29%

North Korea..…………0……..…0…….……0%

Syria……….…………..0………..0…….……0%

Diamond Princess……712……..7………….0.98%

 

Part of my concern is the spread of the disease across the Middle East and Central Asia. There are a number of countries in the region still at war, including Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq. How does one contain a virus in a country at war? Do they then serve as a vector for the rest of the countries in the region?

Data is from Johns Hopkins CSSE 3/18/20 as of 9:33.12 AM EST. It was updated thrice while I was writing this. It is here: Johns Hopkins CSSE

 

A few more observations:

  1. It does appear that at best the mortality rate is around 1% if: 1) there is good health care and 2) there is good reporting. That appears to be borne out by the reporting from South Korea and the more contained environment of the cruise ships.
    1. The S. Korean mortality rate is now at 1%. They have tested more than 240,000 of their people. This is about a good and complete reporting as we are going to see in the real world. It is getting harder to make the argument that the mortality rate is much less than 1%, even assuming a large number of cases were not reported.
    2. Most other countries with a reported rate of less than 1% I suspect have just recently gotten a number of new cases and these figures will be unfortunately changing over time (for example Germany).
  2. If mortality really is around 1% or less, then it appears there are already over 250,000 in cases Italy and over 100,000 cases in Iran.
    1. Now it could be that the natural mortality rate in Italy will be higher than what we are seeing for S. Korea. This will be explored in a future post.
  3. San Marino has a population of 33,562. With 119 cases, this makes it the “most infected” country in the world with 0.35% infected.
    1. The Holy See (Vatican City) is second with 1 case in around 1,000 people (0.10%)
    2. Italy with 60,317,546 people and 31,506 cases is third (0.052%)
      1. If they really have over 250,000 cases then we are looking at over 0.4%, a figure similar to San Marino (which makes sense).
    3. Iran is now fourth with population of 83,183,741 and 17,361 cases. This is 0.021% infected. If they have over 100,000 cases then this is 0.12% infected.
    4. South Korea with 51,709,098 people and 8,413 cases is now fifth (0.016%)
  4. I still suspect 44 U.S. passengers from the Diamond Princess are being double counted in CSSE database. They are now listed as a subset of the Diamond Princess button, but I suspect they are still being counted in the U.S. totals.
    1. Also, Hong Kong’s 181 cases are also counted under China. I just choose to separate out Hong Kong because there is a political protest movement of some significance going on there.
  5. Palestine was reported last Wednesday to have 26 cases. Now the CSSE database does not report on Palestine. Not sure where those 26 cases went to. Are they reported under Israel?

 

On the graph at the top of this post, the new top line is the number of coronavirus cases in “other locations” (meaning outside of mainland China). The original top line is the number of coronavirus cases in Mainland China (People’s Republic of China). The next line is the “Total Recovered” which is reported at 82,107 out of 204,255 cases (and 8,243 deaths). It has now just passed the Mainland China line.

Two ARL Reports

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We do have the two reports prepared by Dr. Alexander Kott of the Army Research Laboratory (ARL) here. One is already been linked to before and is available on-line. The other has not been released yet:

Initial Data Sets for Explorations in Long-Range Forecasting of Military Technologies (May 2019): ARL-SR-0417

An Extended Data Set for Explorations in Long-Range Forecasting of Military Technologies (Jan 2020): ARL-SR-0423

See:

Technological Advancement Lessons from History?

 

What about the Coronavirus and Russia?

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There are only 93 cases of the coronavirus reported for Russia (and no deaths). They have been reporting a lot less than that for a while, and 8 are reported as recovered. This is in a country of almost 147 million people.

The Russian case count from my previous posts:

17 March: 93

16 March: 63

14 March: 47

13 March: 34

11 March: 20

 

Muscovites do travel. I have known a number of them that have traveled to Italy (27K+ cases and counting), Germany (7K+ cases) and many other parts of Western Europe. But there are only 93 cases in Russia. Neighboring Finland has 294 cases (population 5.5 million), neighboring Estonia has 225 (population 1.3 million). Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, Moldavia, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia, all former members of the Soviet Union, are each reporting between 18 and 52 cases. Only Ukraine is not reporting a lot of cases, only 7. Some of the “stans” are reporting cases, Kazakstan with 27, Uzbekistan with 10, although the other three “stans” are not reporting anything. Russia’s neighbors to the east included Mongolia, China and North Korea. China’s most northeastern province, Heilongjiang, is reporting 482 cases. So why does Russia have so few?

According to an article written on 13 March 2020, Russia had tested as of 12 March 76,963 cases. This is a particularly industrious effort and only three counties had done better (image is above). The article is here: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing

So, either: 1) Russia has been very good (even outstanding) at early testing, quarantining and controlling the virus, or 2) it has just managed by luck to have so far avoided Russia, or 3) the Russian figures are grossly underreported.

Coronavirus Mortality Rates update 8

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Well, it was not my intention for this to become a coronavirus blog….but hard to ignore and it is affecting our lives. The number of cases around the world have expanded noticeably since my blog post two days ago. There are now more reported cases outside of China than inside China.

China continues to report very few new cases. For the last five days they have consistently reported 80.9K to 81K cases. So it is only growing by a couple of dozen cases a day. Friday it was 80,945, Saturday it was 80,976, and as of Sunday night it was 81,020. This is 75 cases in the last three days or 25 cases a day. Right now, the there are more new reported cases in South Korea than there are in China. Does this mean that they can return to a more normal life in a couple of weeks?

 

Country……….Cases……Deaths……Rate

World Wide……169,387….6,513…..…3.85%

China.……………81,020….3,213…..…3.97%

Italy………………24,747….1,809…..….7.31%

Iran………….…..13,938……..724…..….5.19%

S. Korea…….……8,162………75…..….0.92%

Spain……….….…7,844..……292………3.72%

Germany…….……5,813………13…..….0.22%

France………….…5,437….…127…..….2.34%

United States…….3,774………69…..….1.83%

Switzerland………2,200….…..14…..….0.64%

Denmark..……….1,739…………2…..….0.12%

United Kingdom…1,395……….35………2.51%

Norway……….….1,256..………3………0.24%

Netherlands.….…1,136.…..….20.….….1.76%

Sweden…..………1,032……..…3….…..0.29%

 

Fourteen countries around the world with over a thousand cases. Below is a list of some of the rest. They are mostly European. Not sure how much more extensive testing influences these figures.

 

Country……..…Cases……Deaths……Rate

Belgium….…….….886…………4…..…..0.45%

Austria……………..860..…..……1……….0.12%

Japan………………839..…….…22.………2.62%

Malaysia….…..……428…………0……….0%

Qatar..………….….401..……..…0…..…..0%

Canada……..……..339…………1…..…..0.29%

Greece..….….…….331……….…4…..…..1.21%

Australia……………297..….….…3…..…..1.01%

Czech Rep……..…293…….……0…..…..0%

Israel…….…….…..251………….0…..…..0%

Portugal.…..….……245…..…..…0……….0%

Finland….…..……..244……….…0…..…..0%

Singapore…..……..226……….…0…..…..0%

Slovenia….………..219…..…..…1…..…..0.46%

Bahrain………….…214……….…0…..…..0%

Brazil……………….200…..………0……….0%

Iceland……………..180…..………0……….0%

Estonia…..…………171…….……0………..0%

Hong Kong…………149……..……4………2.11%

Philippines…….…..140………….12…..…..8.57%

Romania……………139…….……0…..…..0%

Ireland………………129………..…2.…..….1.55%

Egypt………….……126…….……2……….1.59%

Poland………………125…….……3……….2.40%

Iraq…..……….……..124..…….…10……….8.06%

Saudi Arabia……….118……………0………0%

Indonesia….………..117………..…5……….4.27%

Thailand.…..……….114………..…1……….0.88%

India…….….…..……113………..…2.………1.77%

Kuwait……….……….112..…………0….…….0%

San Marino….………109……………7………..6.42%

Lebanon………….…..99..……….…3………..3.03%

UAE…………….……..98………..…0………..0%

 

A few other entities of interest to this author that have less than 98 cases so far:

 

Russia…….…………..63…..….……0…..……..0%

Taiwan………..…..….59…..……..…1….……..1.69%

Vietnam….……..….…56…..….……0…….…..0%

Pakistan………………53…..….……0…..……..0%

Mexico…….….……….43……………0…..……..0%

Palestine…..…….……26?…………..0…..……..0%

Azerbaijan..….…….…23……….……1…..……..4.35%

Afghanistan….…….…16……….……0…..……..0%

New Zealand…………..8………….…0………….0%

Ukraine…………….……3..….…….…1………….33.33%

North Korea..……..…..0…..….….…0……….…..0%

Syria……….……….…..0…..….….…0………..…..0%

Diamond Princess..…696……..…….7…………..1.01%

 

Part of my concern is the spread of the disease across the Middle East and Central Asia. There are a number of countries in the region still at war, including Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq. How does one contain a virus in a country at war? Do they then serve as a vector for the rest of the countries in the region?

Data is from Johns Hopkins CSSE 3/15/20 as of 11:33.33 PM EST. It is here: Johns Hopkins CSSE

 

A few more observations:

  1. It does appear that the mortality rate is around or below 1% if: 1) there is good health care and 2) there is good reporting. That appears to be borne out by the reporting from South Korea and the more contained environment of the cruise ships.
    1. The S. Korean mortality rate has continued to increase over the last few days and is nearing 1%
    2. Most other countries with a reported rate of less than 1% I suspect have just recently gotten a number of new cases and these figures will be unfortunately changing over time (for example Germany).
  2. If mortality really is around 1% or less, then it appears there are already over 180,000 in cases Italy and over 70,000 cases in Iran.
  3. San Marino has a population of 33,562. With 109 cases, this makes it the “most infected” country in the world with 0.32% infected.
    1. The Holy See (Vatican City) is second with 1 case in around 1,000 people (0.10%)
    2. Italy with 60,317,546 people and 24,747 cases is third (0.04%)
      1. If they really have over 180,000 cases then we are looking at around 0.3%, a figure similar to San Marino (which makes sense).
    3. Iran is now fourth with population of 83,183,741 and 13,938 cases. This is 0.017% infected. If they have over 70,000 cases then this is 0.084% infected.
    4. South Korea with 51,709,098 people and 8,162 cases is now fifth (0.016%)
  4. I still suspect 44 U.S. passengers from the Diamond Princess are being double counted in CSSE database. They are now listed as a subset of the Diamond Princess button, but I suspect they are still being counted in the U.S. totals.
    1. Also, Hong Kong’s 149 cases are also counted under China. I just choose to separate out Hong Kong because there is a political protest movement of some significance going on there.
  5. Palestine was reported on Wednesday to have 26 cases. Now the CSSE database does not report on Palestine. Not sure where those 26 cases went to. Are they reported under Israel?

On the graph at the top of this post, the original top line is the number of coronavirus cases in Mainland China (People’s Republic of China). The next line is the “Total Recovered” which is reported at 77,257 out of 169,387 cases (and 6,513 deaths). The new top line is the number of coronavirus cases in “other locations” (meaning outside of mainland China).

Coronavirus Mortality Rates update 7

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Could not update my post yesterday on the subject because the CSSE database was struggling to keep up with all the new reports. There has been an explosion of cases in Europe, although that may be due to better testing.

The coronavirus is now affecting my life, with my son’s school closed down until April 10, my wife’s business trip to Europe next week was cancelled, the NHL has cancelled all their games and the Australian Grand Prix has been cancelled. Now what? I guess I will do another blog post….about the virus.

China continues to report very few cases. For the last four days they have consistently reported 80.9K to 81K cases. So it is only growing by a couple of dozen cases a day. Yesterday it was 80,945, now it is 80,976, or 31 more cases. If the data is correct, then it appears that they have brought this under control even though they have had over 80,000 cases. So, it does appear possible to do. The virus is now expanding faster in several other countries in the world and the number of cases outside of China will soon exceed the number of cases inside of China.

Country…….…Cases……Deaths……Rate

World Wide……149,293….5,609…..…3.76%

China.………..…80,976…..3,189…..…3.94%

Italy…………..…17,660…..1,266…..….7.17%

Iran……………..12,729…..…611…..….4.80%

S. Korea…………8,086………72…..….0.89%

Spain………….…6,023..……191………3.17%

Germany…………3,953……….8……….0.20%

France……………3,667………79……….2.15%

United States……2,177………47…..….2.16%

Switzerland………1,359………..8……….0.59%

United Kingdom…1,143……….21………1.84%

 

Ten countries around the world with over a thousand cases. Below is a list of some of the rest. They are mostly European. Not sure how much more extensive testing influences these figures.

Country……..…Cases……Deaths……Rate

Norway………..….996..…………1………0.10%

Sweden…..……….944……..……2….…..0.21%

Denmark..…….…..836…..………0…..….0%

Netherlands.………804.………..10.….….1.24%

Japan………………725..……..…21.…..…2.90%

Belgium….…….….689……..……4…..…..0.58%

Austria……………..602..…………1……….0.17%

Qatar..………….….337..…………0…..…..0%

Australia……………250..……….…3…..…..1.20%

Finland….…..……..223……..……0…..…..0%

Bahrain………….…210……..……0…..…..0%

Singapore…..……..200……..……0…..…..0%

Canada……..…….198……………1…..…..0.51%

Malaysia….…..…..197……………0……….0%

Greece..….….……190……………1…..…..0.53%

Israel…….…….….164…………….0…..…..0%

Iceland……………156…..……..…0……….0%

Brazil………………151…..…..……0……….0%

Czech Rep……..…150……………0…..…..0%

Slovenia….……….141…..…..……0…..…..0%

Hong Kong…….….140…..,….……4………2.11%

Portugal.…..….…..112…..….……0……….0%

Estonia…..…………109……………0….…..0%

Romania……………102……………0…..…..0%

Iraq…..……….……101..……………9……….8.91%

Kuwait……….….…100..…….……0….…….0%

Philippines……..……98…..……..…8………..8.16%

Indonesia….……..…96…..……..…2………..2.08%

Lebanon………….…93..….…….…3………..3.23%

Egypt…………..……93……………2………..2.15%

Ireland………………90…..…..……1.……….1.11%

India…….….…..……87……….……2.…….…2.30%

Saudi Arabia……..….86…..….……0…………0%

UAE…………….….…85……………0….……..0%

Poland…………….….84……………2…….…..2.38%

Thailand.…..…………82………….…1……..…1.22%

San Marino….…..…..80…………….5…….…..6.25%

Vietnam….……..……53…..…..……0…….…..0%

Taiwan………..…..….53…..……..…1….……..1.89%

 

A few other entities of interest to this author that have less than 50 cases so far:

 

Russia…….…………..47…..….……0…..……..0%

Pakistan………………28…..….……0…..……..0%

Palestine…..…….……26?…………..0…..……..0%

Mexico…….….……….15……………0…..……..0%

Afghanistan….……..…11……………0…..……..0%

New Zealand……….…..5………….…0…………..0%

Ukraine…………..……..1…..…….…1………..100%

North Korea..…………..0…..…….…0…………..0%

Syria……….………..…..0…..…….…0…………..0%

Diamond Princess……696…….…….7…………..1.01%

 

Part of my concern is the spread of the disease across the Middle East and Central Asia. There are a number of countries in the region still at war, including Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq. How does one contain a virus in a country at war? Do they then serve as a vector for the rest of the countries in the region?

Data is from Johns Hopkins CSSE 3/14/20 as of 11:33.17 AM EST. It is here: Johns Hopkins CSSE

 

A few more observations:

  1. It does appear that the mortality rate is around or below 1% if: 1) there is good health care and 2) there is good reporting. That appears to be borne out by the reporting from South Korea and the more contained environment of the cruise ships.
    1. Still the S. Korean mortality rate has continued to increase over the last few days and is nearing 1%
    2. Most other countries with a reported rate of less than 1% I suspect have just recently gotten a number of new cases and these figures will be unfortunately changing over time (for example Germany).
  2. If mortality really is around 1% or less, then it appears there are already over 120,000 in cases Italy and over 60,000 cases in Iran.
  3. San Marino has a population of 33,562. With 80 cases, this makes it the “most infected” country in the world with 0.24% infected.
    1. The Holy See (Vatican City) is second with 1 case in around 1,000 people (0.10%)
    2. Italy with 60,317,546 people and 17,660 cases is third (0.029%)
      1. If they really have over 120,000 case then we are looking at around 0.2%, a figure similar to San Marino.
    3. South Korea with 51,709,098 people and 8,086 cases is fourth (0.016)
  4. I still suspect 44 U.S. passengers from the Diamond Princess are being double counted in CSSE database.
  5. Palestine was reported on Wednesday to have 26 cases. Now the CSSE database does not report on Palestine. Not sure where those 26 cases went to. Are they reported under Israel?

On the graph at the top of this post, the top line is the number of coronavirus cases in Mainland China (People’s Republic of China). The next line is the “Total Recovered” which is reported at 72,042 out of 149,293 cases (and 5,609 deaths). The bottom line is the number of coronavirus cases in “other locations” (meaning outside of mainland China). This bottom line is to aiming to cross the other two lines over the next couple of weeks.

The South Korean example

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Well, I don’t have an insight into China’s efforts, even though they are reporting very few new cases. On the other hand, we do have some statistics from South Korea.

  1. They have a population of 51,709,098.
  2. They have tested over 200,000 people
    1. And I gather are testing more that 10,000 a day
    2. This is considerably more than what the U.S. has done.
  3. They have more than 8,000 cases (8,086 as of noon 3/14/20).
  4. They have 72 deaths (as of noon on 3 /14/20)

So……

  1. They have tested over 0.39% of their population (they have tested less than 1% of their population)
  2. Of the tested population around 4% have coronavirus
  3. Of the population with the virus, 0.89% have died (less than 1%).

Now working backwards to the U.S. situation:

  1. We now have 47 deaths (as of noon).
  2. Does this mean that we have over 5,000 cases in the U.S.?
  3. Does this mean that we should be testing more than 1,250,00 people?
    1. I gather we are finally on the path to doing that…but not sure how long it will take.

As far as we know, North Korea has no cases. This is hard to believe as the border between North Korea and China is fairly porous and there are a significant number of North Koreans living and working in China. But, officially, there are no reported cases in North Korea.