Coronavirus in the DC area – weekly update 43

Colorized picture from California, 1918. Source: reddit

The number of cases and deaths from coronavirus has declined nationally. This is weekly update number 43 on the coronavirus in the DC area. Decided to maintain my very current and relevant picture.

This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 16,058 new cases. Last week it was 18,934 new cases. Twelve weeks ago there were only 4,256 new cases. We are still at least six months way from having a vaccine available for everyone.

Almost all of Europe is still struggling with controlling the spread of the disease. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, is still struggling with 11K new cases reported for yesterday.  It remains high in the UK (20K yesterday) although much better. Yesterday they reported for France (22K), Spain (36K), Germany (9K) and Russia (18K). The U.S., which has never gotten the virus under control, had 147K new cases yesterday. This is improvement. This is in contrast to places like China (139 cases), Japan (3,861), South Korea (554), Taiwan (1), Vietnam (2), Singapore (14), Australia (6) and New Zealand (5). 

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 cases thirty weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 4:22 PM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….34,403……35,865…..895
Arlington, VA……………..237,521..…..10,860……11,414…..197
Alexandria VA……………160,530………8,810…….9,236…..102
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.……54,918……58,092…..762
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.….……243……….285………6
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574..….……373………..413…….10
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850….…17,236……19,508…..173

Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011…….32,237……34,314…..295
Manassas…………………..41,641..…….3,458.,…….3,608…….33
Manassas Park………….…17,307….…..1,041…..….1,062………8
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960….…..6,887……..7,586……45
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144……..1,310……..1,468…….14
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……55,203……57,685…1,292
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……63,994……66,535…1,213
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…290,973…..307,041…5,045

 

This is a 6% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 1.64%. This last week, there were 178 new fatalities reported out of 16,058 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 1.11%. The population known to have been infected is 5.72% or one confirmed case for every 17 people. The actual rate of infection has been higher, perhaps as much as 4 times higher.

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Most of them were emptied out due to Thanksgiving and the upcoming Christmas holidays. Most of these universities are back in session except for UVA.

Harrisonburg, VA (pop. 54K) is reporting 5,223 cases (5,080 last week) and 59 deaths (up 11 these last two weeks!), while Rockingham County (pop. 81K), where the town resides, is reporting 5,434 cases (5,097 last week) and 69 deaths (up 15 these last two weeks!). This is where James Madison University is located.

Charlottesville, VA (pop. 47K) has 2,681 cases (2,586 last week) and 38 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA (pop. 109K), where the town resides, has 3,789 cases (3,575 last week) and 35 deaths. This is where UVA is located. UVA had good covid tracker website: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. This is definitely worth looking at, as you can see how they were able to bring the virus under control with a student body of 25,000.  

Lynchburg (pop. 82K), the home of Liberty University, has 6,003 cases (5,514 last week) cases and 68 deaths (8 deaths this week).

Further south, Montgomery County, VA (pop. 99K) has 6,188 cases (5,894 last week) and 61 deaths (up 13 these last two weeks!). This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 4,707 cases yesterday. Last week it was 4,526. For a long time, it pretty much ran 1,000 cases a day, neither going up or going down.

Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has 1,629 cases (1,523 last week) and 6 deaths. With summer over, not sure why this continues to grow. It is growing a lot faster than during the summer.

This entry was posted in Coronavirus by Christopher A. Lawrence. Bookmark the permalink.

About Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience. ... Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation. ... His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024). ... Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

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