Monthly Archives: August 2020

Continued Protests in Belarus

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Well, we are now in the third week of protests in Belarus and they do not seem to be abating. They had over 100,000 protesting in Minsk yesterday, and there are regularly protests in other towns.

In a previous post, I had spelled out a number of possible outcomes.

Events in Belarus

The first was that Lukashenko manages to remain in power (implying by his own means and his own forces). I have no particular expertise or knowledge of Belarus or the situation, but these protests do seem 1) sizable, 2) widespread and 3) have continued for a while. Added to that, it seems like his police tried to crack down on them heavily at first, and that seemed to just increase the size and virulence of the protests. It appears that the police have backed off now, to some extent. He clearly has decided he will not/can not use more force, like using snipers on the crowds like Yanukovich did in Ukraine during the successful Euromaidan protests in 2013-2014.

I am leaning towards concluding that Lukashenko is not going to be able to just ride this one out as it. I am thinking that the first option I gave: which is that “Lukashenko manages to remain in power” is increasingly less likely. At this point I think the three most likely options are:

  1. Lukashenko is overthrown and replaced by a democratic government (I am always somewhat of an optimist).
  2. Russian intervenes
    1. To prop up Lukashenko, possibly in exchange for signing a treaty that surrenders some or much of their sovereignty (Putin has already publicly discussed sending forces to Belarus)
    2. Russian annexes Belarus.
  3. Lukashenko forms a combined government with the opposition so as to head off Russian intervention (Lukashenko is now discussing a referendum on constitutional reforms).

Watching this with great interest. This has the distinct possibility of becoming a map-changing event.

Coronavirus in the DC area – update 21

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Latest weekly update of this coronavirus post. This week it has increased by 3,044 new cases. Last week week there were 3,568 new cases. So things are slowly improving. In contrast, Italy, the epicenter of the European outbreak, is reporting 876 new cases yesterday. They are dealing with some new outbreaks.

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 eight weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 7:28:08 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week……Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445……..13,354……13,684………..604
Arlington, VA……………..237,521………3,293………3,415……….138
Alexandria VA……………160,530………3,165………3,309…………61
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795……..17,230……17,784………..547
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772…………..63…………66………..…7
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.…………103…….…106…………..7
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..………5,580…..…5,769……….115
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011..…….10,034.…..10,470………183
Manassas…………………..41,641……….1,729….…1,769…………23
Manassas Park………….…17,307..…………542……….554……….…7
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960………..1,543….…1,612………..10
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144.….……..431………..455…………4
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……..19,180……19,599……..815
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……..24,949……25,648……..780
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425……101,196….104,240…..3,301

This is a 3% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 3.17%, which is high. The population known to have been infected is 1.94% or one confirmed case for every 51 people.

Also, of interest to me is Albemarle County, VA with 975 confirmed cases (921 last week) and 16 deaths and Charlottesville, VA which has 592 confirmed cases (566 last week) and 17 deaths. Further south, Montgomery County, VA has 392 cases this week (337 last week) and 3 deaths. These two areas are the home of UVA (Charlottesville) and Virginia Tech (Blacksburg), two large universities located in a more rural environment. UVA delayed the movement of students into the dorms from 19 August until 5-8 September. On the other hand, VT and most other Virginia universities are opening up last week and are housing students. We shall see if there is a difference. Virginia itself is not doing well, running around a thousand new cases a day right now.

Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has had 233 cases (216 last week) and 2 deaths.

Coronavirus and Government Turnover

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Some countries have done a better job than others in addressing and dealing with the coronavirus. This is reflected in the number of cases per capita and the number of deaths per capita, if the statistics by country are reliable and reported in the same manner. Dealing with the coronavirus also has a huge economic impact. I am not sure people have fully evaluated the economic impact of this disease which appears like it is going to be an issue until at least the end of 2021.

Needless to say, a government that has not done a good job of containing the coronavirus is going to be hit twice, once from criticism of how it dealt with the virus and a second time from the economic impact of having to deal with it over an extended time. This is magnified if they have to again shut down because of a failure to control the first wave, or a resurgent first wave, and fail to address a second wave. The ideal situation is that the virus is identified, brought under control and then kept under control. This is the case with Italy, even though it was initially the worse hit of the European countries. The cases by day for Italy are below:

As can be seen, even Italy is dealing with a resurgence in cases, although a lot less than some other countries.

The leadership of a country that fails to contain the virus is going to obviously come under considerable criticism and of course, they also have to deal with a declining economy in the process. Usually, in democratic countries, a declining economy means that the government gets voted out. In non-democratic countries, the situation is a little more complex, but often dictatorships are challenged when the economy declines. While I don’t have the current economic statistics for Belarus at hand, I do have their current reported coronavirus statistics. For a country of 9.4 million people, they have a reported 70,645 cases and 646 deaths. This is an infection rate of 0.75 percent or one case per 133 people and a death rate of 0.007 percent or one case per 14,551 people. This is assuming these report numbers are correct. It does report a death rate of those infected of less than 1%, which makes one suspicious that the number of deaths is being underreported.

The graph of daily cases looks like this:

If this is true, then it looks like they have brought the virus under control. This was done without any requirements nationwide for isolation or wearing mask. There is considerable suspicion that these statistics are not correct.

Just for comparison, the United States has an infection rate of 1.75 percent or one case per 57 people and a death rate of 0.05 percent or one case per 1,852 people.

So, just to compare the countries in the area:

……………………..Percent infected…………..Percent killed

Belarus……………0.75………………………….0.007

Russia……………..0.65………………………….0.01

Ukraine……………0.26…………………………..0.006

.

Poland…………….0.16…………………………..0.005

Lithuania………….0.10…………………………..0.003

Latvia………………0.07…………………………..0.002

.

United States……..1.75………………………….0.05

 

Now there are reasons not to entirely trust the numbers coming out of Russia. There may also be reasons not to trust the numbers coming out of Belarus, especially as Lukashenko has not be supportive of the efforts to control and contain the virus. It is clear that the virus is a bigger problem for Belarus (and Russia) than it is for some of their neighbors, even if their reported statistics are not as bad as the United States.

Therefore, if the virus is still a major problem in Belarus (which I gather it is) and the economy is in trouble because of it (which I assume it is), then these are two issues that Lukashenko must deal with that are potentially crippling to his chances of staying in power. He may not be the only leader in danger of being ousted because of their failures to address the virus.

 

P.S. Data is from 6:28:02 PM on 24 August 2020 drawn from Johns Hopkins CSSE

The Situation with Belarus

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Image taken from Independent.co.uk at:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/belarus-protest-minsk-lukashenko-a9684436.html

 

The protests have been going on in Belarus for two weeks now. On Sunday, they had something like 200,000 protesters in the street. Still, one can be too hasty in reaching a conclusion. For example, the Euromaidan protests in Ukraine in 2013-14 lasted for three months (21 November 2013 – 23 February 2014) and that was against a security force that killed over 100 from gunfire, primarily using snipers. The earlier, bloodless Orange Revolution in Ukraine lasted two months (22 November 2004 – 23 January 2005). The Rose Revolution in Georgia last three weeks (3 – 23 November 2003). These last two a very similar to what is occurring in Belarus, as they were over a disputed election result. In all three cases, the country’s leadership was overthrown.

On the other hand, all large demonstrations do not succeed. We have the Syrian Civil War, which started as protests against the government of Assad in March 2011. We have the protests in Tiananmen Square which dragged on for seven weeks (15 April – 4 June 1989) before the protests were run over and broken up. The Chinese Communist Party is still in power. This was at a cost of 300 to 3,000 killed, depending on who you wish to believe.

But, it does appear that this one may drag on for a few more weeks.

Let’s compare the landlocked Belarus to its neighbors:

.………………………………………………………..Per Capita………….Per Capita
…………………Population…………..GDP………….GDP.……………..GDP (PPP)
Belarus………….9.4 million…………63 billion……….$6,744…………….$21,223
Russia………..146.8 million……..1,657 billion……..$11,205…………….$30,819
Ukraine…………41.7 million……….162 billion……….$3,881…………….$10,310

 

Poland………….38.4 million……….607 billion……….$17,369…………..$35,651
Lithuania…………2.8 million………..56 billion……….$20,355…………..$38,751

Latvia……………..1.9 million………..37 billion………$19,105…………..$32,986

 

United States…328.2 million……22,321 billion…….$67,426…………..$67,426

 

These economic estimates do not take into account the effects of Coronavirus and the subsequent shutdowns. For example, the figures for the United States are from IMF, October 2019, which pre-dates the virus.

Russia in the country to the east of Belarus, Ukraine is the country to south. Poland is the country to the west (and a member of NATO), and Lithuania and Latvia are the countries to the north (also members of NATO). Lithuania is where the opposing candidate, Svetlana Tsikhanouskaya is currently residing. According to the official election results, Lukashenko got 80% of the vote (4,661,075 votes) while Tsikhanouskaya received 10% (588,622).

Coronavirus in the DC area – update 20

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Latest weekly update of this coronavirus post. This week it has increased by 3,568 new cases. Last week week there were 3,963 new cases. In contrast, Italy, the epicenter of the European outbreak, is reporting 401 new cases yesterday.

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 seven weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 12:27:42 PM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week.…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445……..12,959……13,354……..600
Arlington, VA……………..237,521………3,118……..3,293……..135
Alexandria VA……………160,530………3,014…….3,165…….…61
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795……..16,642…..17,230……..538
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772…………..61…..……63…………6
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.………….92………103………….7
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..………5,372……5,580………115
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011..………9,605….10,034………179
Manassas…………………..41,641……….1,670……1,729………..23
Manassas Park………….…17,307..………..518………542…………7
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……….1,424……1,543……….10
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144.….…….414………431…………4
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567…….18,641…..19,180……..814
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308…….24,098..…24,949…….769
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…….97,628…101,196….3,268

This is a 4% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 3.23%, which is high. The population known to have been infected is 1.89% or one confirmed case for every 53 people.

Also, of interest to me is Albemarle County, VA with 921 confirmed cases (856 last week) and 16 deaths and Charlottesville, VA which has 566 confirmed cases (550 last week) and 14 deaths. Montgomery County, VA has 337 cases this week (312 last week) and 3 deaths. These two areas are the home of UVA (Charlottesville) and Virginia Tech (Blacksburg), two large universities located in a more rural environment. UVA announced last week that they were delaying the movement of students into the dorms from 19 August until 5-8 September. On the other hand, VT and most other Virginia universities are opening up this week. We shall see if there is a difference. Virginia itself is not doing well, running almost a thousand new cases a day right now.

Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has 216 cases (210 last week) and 2 deaths.

 

Events in Belarus

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It is not front-page news in the United States, but events in Belarus are getting interesting. There are now daily demonstrations, the demonstrations are wide-spread, and there are supporting strikes. This does look serious and there appears to be a real chance that the dictatorial rule Lukashenko could be overthrown. I have never done a systematic study of the phenomenon, but once the protests 1) reach a certain size, 2) reach a certain level of sustainability, 3) are broadly based across a country and 4) supported by strikes and business shutdowns…. then I suspect there is a high probability that the current government will be thrown out of power. With some research, I suspect one could come up with a probability of this occurring (much like we did with probability of winning or losing an insurgency: See: America’s Modern Wars).

Now, the Belarus situation is more complex, because Russia is in the neighborhood and has been working on trying develop some form of closer integration or unification with Belarus. So, as things there get more tenuous, one wonders if Russia will not be tempted to intervene. So far, their costs for intervening in many other locales had not been crippling. At this point, suspect we are looking at six or more possible outcomes:

1. Lukashenko manages to remain in power.
2. Lukashenko is replaced by someone in his entourage.
3. Lukashenko is overthrown and replaced by a democratic government.
4. Lukashenko is overthrown and replaced by a government that becomes an oligarchy or another dictatorship.

5. Russian intervenes.

6. Lukashenko forms a combined government with the opposition so as to head off Russian intervention.

 

Russian intervention could have several forms

1. To prop up Lukashenko, possibly in exchange for signing a treaty that surrenders some or much of their sovereignty.
2. To prop up a replacement for Lukashenko, also in exchange for signing a treaty that surrenders some or much of their sovereignty.
3. Russia annexes Belarus.

 

Would not be surprised to see dramatic developments there in the next few weeks.

Coronavirus in the DC area – update 19

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Latest weekly update of this coronavirus post. This week it has increased to 3,963 new cases. Last week week there were 3,672 new cases. It was 4,077 new cases two weeks ago. In contrast, Italy, the epicenter of the European outbreak, is reporting 412 new cases yesterday.

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 six weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 3:17:24 PM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week.…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445……..12,443……12,959…….593
Arlington, VA……………..237,521……….2,997…….3,118……..135
Alexandria VA……………160,530……….2,872….…3,014………60
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795……..16,019……16,642…….529
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772……………59….……..61……….6
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.…………..82…….…..92………..7
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..………5,117……..5,372…….115
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011..………9,139……..9,605……176
Manassas…………………..41,641……….1,620……..1,670……..23
Manassas Park………….…17,307..………..505…….….518……….7
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……….1,300………1,424………9
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144.….…….380………..414……….4
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567…….17,976……18,641……806
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308…….23,156……24,098..…764
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…….93,665……97,628…3,234

This is a 4% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 3.31%, which is high. The population known to have been infected is 1.82% or one confirmed case for every 55 people.

Also, of interest to me is Albemarle County, VA with 856 confirmed cases (791 last week) and 16 deaths and Charlottesville, VA which has 550 confirmed cases (504 last week) and 15 deaths. Montgomery County, VA has 312 cases this week (291 last week) and 3 deaths. These two areas are the home of UVA (Charlottesville) and Virginia Tech (Blacksburg), two large universities located in a more rural environment. UVA announced last week that they were delaying the movement of students into the dorms from 19 August until  8 September. On the other hand, VT and many other Virginia universities are opening up on time (late August). We shall see if there is a difference.

Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has 210 cases (202 last week) and 2 deaths. The number of cases in all these areas is growing at a worrisome rate. Virginia itself is not doing well, running around a thousand new cases a day right now.

Below are the daily graphs for the District of Columbia, Virginia and Maryland:

Coronavirus in Australia vice the U.S.

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Still not done blogging about the coronavirus (sorry). Australia has kind of been one of the success stories, while the United States has not. Here is the daily counts of U.S. reported infections:

One will note after the initial sudden rise in cases (driven by the NE U.S.) there was a general decline and now the current explosion as the virus hits most of the rest of the country.

Australia is having a similar double peak, although neither peak is as large. Still, considering how successful Australia was at containing the virus, this is a warning of the nature of the problem that everyone faces.

Now, the is a real difference here in size. The United States has a population of 330 million, while Australia has a population of 25.64 million, less than a tenth of the U.S.. The United States has reported a total of 4,826,861 cases, which is 1.46% of the population, or one case every 68 people. Australia has reported a total of 19,863 cases, which is 0.08% of the population, or one case every 1,291 people. There are a reported 158,321 deaths for the United States, which is 0.05% of the population or one death for every 2,084 people. There are a reported 255 deaths in Australia, which is 0.001% of the population or one death for every 100,549 people. Needless to say, even though Australia is getting a second spike there is still a big difference between Australia and the U.S.

A couple of graphs from two countries, Canada and New Zealand, who are doing better than their larger neighbor.

 

Coronavirus in the DC area – update 18

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Latest weekly update of this coronavirus post. The number of cases has finally started to decrease again, after increasing over the last month. This week there were 3,672 new cases. It was 4,077 new cases last week. In contrast, Italy, the epicenter of the European outbreak, is reporting 190 cases yesterday.

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 five weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 11:37:27 PM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week.…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445……..11,999……12,443……587
Arlington, VA……………..237,521………2,857……..2,997……135
Alexandria VA……………160,530………2,759……..2,872….…60
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795……..15,570……16,019……530
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772………….54………….59………5
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.…………79…………..82………7
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..…….4,956………5,117……113
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011..….…8,724………9,139…..175
Manassas…………………..41,641……..1,586………1,620…….20
Manassas Park………….…17,307..………493…………505………7
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960………1,227……..1,300…..…8
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144.….……340………..380…..…3
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……17,305……17,976…..794
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……22,044……23,156……746
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425……89,993…….93,665…3,190

This is a 4% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 3.54%, which is high. The population known to have been infected is 1.75% or one confirmed case for every 57 people.

Also, of interest to me is Albemarle County, VA with 791 confirmed cases (724 last week) and 16 deaths, and Charlottesville, VA which has 504 confirmed cases (443 last week) and 13 deaths. Montgomery County, VA has 291 cases this week (260 last week) and 3 deaths. Of course, who knows what will happen when you bring in tens of thousands of students in the fall. These two areas are the home of UVA (Charlottesville) and Virginia Tech (Blacksburg), two large universities located in a more rural environment. UVA yesterday announced they were delaying the movement of students into the dorms from 19 August until  8 September.

Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has 202 cases (187 last week) and 2 deaths. The number of cases in all these areas is growing at a worrisome rate. Virginia itself is not doing well, running around a thousand new cases a day right now.

Below are the daily graphs for the District of Columbia, Virginia and Maryland: