USS Abraham Lincoln, May 19, 2019

Since 1990, the U.S. has always maintained a presence in and around the Persian/Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. The UK also traditionally has a presence in the Gulf. Exactly what is there now?

In Iraq: 6,700+ U.S. and allied troops and supporting civilians

1. Around 5,000 U.S. troops, primarily involved in training.
   1. As of 2017 the Pentagon has stopped providing the number of troops that are being deployed in Iraq citing security concerns.
   2. There are also probably U.S. civilians
2. UK has 400 UK troops in non-combat roles and 1,000 civilians
   “supporting counter-daesh operations.”
3. Germany has 160 soldiers
4. Netherlands had 169 military and civilian staff
5. Australia withdrew in 2018.

Kuwait:

1. 10,000 troops in Kuwait (under CENTCOM?)

Bahrain:

1. UK has a Type 23 frigate based there
2. UK has four minesweepers based there.
3. UK has a floating base.

Oman:

1. Some British troops
2. In March 2019, they performed a joint exercise with the Omani armed forces that included 5,500 British troops.

The Fifth Fleet:

1. According to the USNI Fleet Tracker , they currently have 21 ships.
   1. This includes the USS Abraham Lincoln and the Kearserge (see below).
2. 10,000 troops in Qatar (command assumed to be Fifth Fleet)
3. 1,000+ Marines aboard the Kearsarge
4. There are probably a number of submarines in the area.

Sending to the Gulf as of new reports of 10 May and after:

1. Carrier Strike Group 12
   1. USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72)
      1. 65-70 aircraft (Carrier Air Wing 7)
   2. USS Leyte Gulf (CG-55)
   3. Destroyer Squadron 2 with:
      1. USS Bainbridge (DDG-96)
      2. USS Mason (DDG-87)
      3. USS Nitze (DDG-94)
   4. sometimes submarines
   5. support vessels
   6. Passed through the Suez Canal on May 9.
      1. operating of the coast of Oman 16 May
2. Amphibious Squadron 6
   1. USS Kearsarge (LHD-3)
   2. 22nd MEU (Marine Expeditionary Unit)
      1. A battalion+ of Marines
   3. USS Arlington (LPD-24)
   4. USS Fort McHenry (LSD-43)
   5. Off the coast of UAE near entrance to Gulf on 16 May
3.  One squadron of B-52s
   1. At Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar
      1. Pictures of them landing on May 9
   2. Others elsewhere in “southwest asia” (Al Dhafra Air Base in UAE?)
   3. Maybe 12-24 aircraft
   4. Aircraft from the 20th Bomb Squadron, Barksdale AFB, Louisiana
4. One Patriot Missile Battalion
   1. Originally a Patriot battery in the reports of 10 May.
   2. Appears to include forces that were already in the Gulf who extended their deployment.
   3. Maybe 16 launchers of 4 missiles
5. Two U.S. destroyers entered the Persian Gulf on May 16
   1. USS McFaul (DDG-74)
   2. USS Gonzalez (DDG-66)
6. Added to the deployed on 24 May
   1. One fighter squadron
   2. Reconnaissance and surveillance aircraft
   3. around 900 troops while another 600 are retained in the Gulf.

This listing was quickly cobbled together from open sources. It should not be quoted without verification.

Max Boot, author of Savage Wars of Peace, among other books, wrote the following op-ed for the Washington Post:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/05/20/war-with-iran-would-be-mother-all-quagmires/?utm_term=.53a658dfb57d

One reason we are posting this is that he linked a line in his article to our blog post:

Force Ratios and Counterinsurgency

But this is a op-ed worth reading. There are few points of significance here:

1. “Instead, what I see is the mother of all quagmires: a conflict that would make the Iraq War — which I now deeply regret supporting — seem like a “cakewalk” by comparison.”
2. “Air attacks are usually decisive only when combines with ground attacks.:”
3. “Unfortunately, the United States lacks a realistic ground option in Iran…”
4. “Iran could employ a combination of antiship cruise missiles, drones, submarines, small boats and mines to “swarm” U.S. naval ships in the confined waters of the Persian Gulf.”
5. “In response, the United States would do…what?

I do note that Iran could probably also shut down the flow of oil from the Persian/Arabian Gulf for a while. This will certainly affect oil markets worldwide. Still, there is no question that the Saudi Arabia (with the other Gulf States) and/or the United States could establish air superiority over the Gulf. In the long run, that will work to our advantage. There will be a cost to this.

Saudi Arabia has the third largest defense budget in the world. A lot of that has gone to aircraft. Their air force currently consists of 844 aircraft and 81,000 personnel. Combat aircraft include:

61 F-15Cs

87 F-15E

53 Typhoons

81 Tornado

Lots of support aircraft. See Royal Saudi Air Force

Everyone else’s air force is notably smaller, except for the UAE.

Country…..Personnel…..Aircraft…..F-16C…..F-16D….F-18C…Mirage 2000….Rafale…..F16 E/F

Iraq………….5,000…………….289……………27………..9

Kuwait………5,000…………………………………………………….27

Qatar………………………………………………………………………………….30………………..1

Bahrain……..1,500……………129……………17

UAE…………………………………573………………………………………………67……………….30………….78

Oman……………………………………………….18…………………………………………………….9 Typhoon

……………………………………………….Other

……………..Su-25………AH-64……..Ground Attack

Iraq………….21…………………………..18

Kuwait………………………16

Qatar………………………….1…………..6

Bahrain……………………..22

UAE……………………………………………6

Oman……………………………………….10

Between these seven nations, this is something like 595 air superiority and multi-role modern aircraft, plus another 100 or more ground attack aircraft. Certainly enough to patrol the Persian/Arabian Gulf, which is about the size of the state of Wyoming.

On the north side of the Gulf is Iran. It has an air force of 37,000 (2011 estimate) consisting of:

MiG-29:……………20

F-7………………….17 (a Chinese MiG-21)

F-5E………………..25

F-4 Phantom II…….47

F-14…………………24

Mirage F1……………9

Su-22……………….10

Su-24……………….23

So, 142 air superiority and multi-role Iranian jets compared to 595 controlled by the seven Arab states lining the Gulf. In most cases, the Arab nations have better quality aircraft…and 33 Ground Attack aircraft vice 100+. No question who will be able to establish air superiority if there is a hot war.

Small boats of Iran during Tanker War (1980s)

A number of states in the Persian/Arabian Gulf have navies. These include frigates and other significant warships. It also includes submarines in the case of Iran.

Saudi Arabia has 7 frigates, 4 corvettes, 9 patrol boats and 3 minesweepers (needed for the Gulf). This is not an insignificant force (See: Royal Saudi Navy).

The United Arab Emirates have 9 corvettes and 9 fast attack craft and other larger patrol vessels (See:  United Arab Emirates Navy)

Little Bahrain (which is majority Shiite, even though the royal family is Sunni) has 1 frigate and 6 patrol craft of note (See: Royal Bahrain Naval Force).

Iraq has 2 corvettes and 6 patrol vessels of note (See: Iraqi Navy)

Oman has 5 corvettes and 12 patrol vessels (See:  Royal Navy of Oman).

Kuwait has 10 Fast Patrol Boats (See:  Kuwait Naval Force)

The outcast Qatar has 7 Fast attack craft (See:  Qatari Emiri Navy)

These seven nations have an interest in either keeping the Persian/Arabian Gulf open or at least remaining neutral in such a conflict. Still, it appears they could muster together 8 frigates, up to 20 corvettes and up to 59 larger patrol craft. There are also a lot of smaller patrol craft which I have not listed.

And then there is Iran, one of only three nations in the world with a Shiite majority (the other two being Iraq and Bahrain). It has the largest navy in the area with around 18,000 personnel (2011 estimate). They have 3 large submarines (2325 tons), 4 smaller submarines (350 to 1200 tons), 27 really small submarines (90 to 120 tons) and 5 mini-subs (10 tons) They have 1 destroyer planned (7,500 tons), 6 frigates (1,500 to 2,000 tons), 3 corvettes (580 to 1,135 tons), 32 fast attack craft (205 to 447 tons), 97 coastal patrol boats (up to 148 tons), 83 smaller patrol boats (14 to 82 tons), 14 hovercraft, 3 submersible boats, 74 fast attack craft, 200+ miscellaneous small craft, 3 mine layers, 2 mine countermeasure ships, 26 landing craft,  and 28 support ships. (See: Islamic Republic of Iran Navy). This is a lot of little ships and some significant big ships. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps also maintains a large number of small craft (See: Navy of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps). Some/most are counted above.

Anyhow, it is clear that the Iranian Navy is probably capable of shutting down traffic in the Gulf and this probably cannot be halted by the other Gulf navies. And then there are the air forces (subject of a post tomorrow).

Source: SIPRI

A modern military costs money, especially if one is developing a capable air force and navy. This are big ticket items. Let of us for a moment look at what is being spent by states bordering the Persian/Arabian Gulf, as this seems to be the flashpoint “de jure.”

Saudi Arabia is the big spender there with 67.6 billion spend on defense in 2018 (source: SIPRI 2019 fact sheet). This actually makes it the third largest defense budget in the world, ahead of India, France, Russia, UK, Germany, etc. It spends 8.8% of its GDP on defense.

Some other Gulf states are also spending heavily. Oman spends 12.1% of its GDP on defense, although its GDP is small. Bahrain spends 4.1% of its GDP on defense. In comparison the U.S. spends 3.2% of its GDP on defense, China 1.9%, Russia 4.3%, Iraq 3.9%, Ukraine 3.4%, France 2.3%, UK 1.8% and Germany 1.2%.

In contrast, Iran spends 13.2 billion (or 19.6 billion in 2019 according to IISS). This is 3.1% to 4.6% of Iran’s GDP. This is around 20% to 30% of what Saudi Arabia spends and around 2% to 3% of what the U.S. spends.