Monthly Archives: December 2020

Coronavirus in the DC area – weekly update 39

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Colorized picture from California, 1918. Source: reddit

Weekly update number 39 on the coronavirus in the DC area. Decided to maintain my very current and relevant picture.

This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 16,418 new cases. This is worse, but the statistics may be distorted because of the holidays. Last week it improved to be at 12,087 cases, as the week before there were 15,323 new cases. Eight weeks ago there were only 4,256 new cases. We are still at least six months way from having a vaccine available for everyone.

Almost all of Europe is still struggling with controlling the spread of the disease. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, is still struggling with 11K new cases reported for yesterday.  It remains high in the UK (53K yesterday, it was 19K two weeks ago), France (11K), Spain (14K), Germany (19K) and Russia (27K). The U.S., which has never gotten the virus under control, had 202K new cases yesterday, slightly down from 216K new cases three Tuesdays ago. This is in contrast to places like China (77 cases), Japan (3,629), South Korea (1,048), Taiwan (2), Vietnam (3), Singapore (13), Australia (32) and New Zealand (7 on 12/28). 

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 cases twenty-six weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 9:22 PM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….26,900……28,758……..780
Arlington, VA……………..237,521………8,121……..8,786…….181
Alexandria VA……………160,530.…..…6,782……..7,231…..….87
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795…….40,483……43,434…….679
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772………..157……..…174……….6
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.………..281……….304………10
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..……12,925……13,996……158
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011….….23,041……25,247……256
Manassas…………………..41,641….……2,708……..2,867…….30
Manassas Park………….…17,307…………869……….926………8
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……….4,578…….5,099…….24
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144.………..941……..1,021……..9
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……..42,551…..45,791..1,120
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……..51,006….54,127…1,079
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425……221,343…237,761..4,427

This is a 7% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 1.86%. This last week, there were 174 new fatalities reported out of 16,418 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 1.06%. This increased mortality rate is almost certainly driven by people who got ill several weeks ago, so in sense, the figures are now catching up from the lower mortality rates over the last few weeks. The population known to have been infected is 4.43% or one confirmed case for every 23 people. The actual rate of infection has been higher, perhaps as much as 4 times higher.

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Most of them were emptied out due to Thanksgiving and the upcoming Christmas holidays. Many of the students are now home until mid-to-late January.

Harrisonburg, VA is reporting 4,343 cases (4,098 last week) and 44 deaths, while Rockingham County, where the town resides, is reporting 3,842 cases (3,386 last week) and 47 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located.

Charlottesville, VA has 2,182 confirmed cases (2,089 last week) and 34 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA, where the town resides, has 2,756 confirmed cases (2,509 last week) and 31 deaths. This is where UVA is located. UVA had a covid tracker which is worth looking at: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. This is definitely worth looking at, as you can see how they were able to bring the virus under control with a student body of 25,000. Apparently college students are more responsible than many adults. 

Further south, Montgomery County, VA has 5,138 cases this week (4,853 last week) and 38 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Keep in mind all these increases in this towns is occurring while the universities are not in session. It is currently growing faster than it was when they were, reinforcing my point that college students appear to be more responsible than many adults.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 4,122 cases yesterday. Last week it was 3,591. For a long time, it pretty much ran 1,000 cases a day, neither going up or going down.

Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has 996 cases (888 last week) and 5 deaths. With summer over, not sure why this continues to grow. It is growing a lot faster than during the summer.

More Force Ratio Posts

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The last two posts I made on force ratios was drawn from my book War by Numbers. There are additional posts I did early last year on the subject based upon my in-process follow-on book More War by Numbers. They are summarized here:

Summation of Human Factors and Force Ratio posts | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

I have been fairly diligent about making sure the “categories” that are listed on the right hand column of the blog are maintained. Therefore, clicking on Force Ratio will lead you to all 29 Force Ratio related posts on this blog. There are 1,129 posts on this blog (as of this post).

 

 

More Combat Results Tables from War by Numbers

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Now, the purpose of War by Numbers was not to create Combat Results Tables (CRT) for wargames. Its real purpose was to test the theoretical ideas of Clausewitz, and more particularly, Trevor N. Dupuy to actual real-world data. Not as case studies, but as statistical compilations that would show what the norms are. Unfortunately, military history is often the study of exceptions, or exceptional events, and what is often lost to the casual reader it what the norms are. Properly developed statistical database will clearly show what the norms are and how frequent or infrequent these exceptions are. People tend to remember the exceptional cases, they tend to forget the norms, if they even knew what they were to start with.

Chapters 3, 4 and 5 of War by Numbers is primarily focused on measuring human factors (which some people in the U.S. DOD analytical community seem to think are unmeasurable, even though we are measuring them). As part of that effort I ended up assemble a set of force ratios tables based upon theater and nationality. The first of these, on page 10, was in my previous blog post. Here are a few others, from page 11 of War by Numbers.

Germans attacking Soviets (Battles of Kharkov and Kursk), 1943

 

Force Ratio                          Result                                    Percent Failure   Number of cases

0.63 to 1.06-to-1.00             Attack usually succeeds      20%                        5

1.18 to 1.87-to-1.00             Attack usually succeeds        6%                      17

1.91-to-1.00 and higher      Attacker Advances                 0%                       21

 

Soviets attacking Germans (Battles of Kharkov and Kursk), 1943

 

Force Ratio                          Result                                    Percent Failure   Number of cases

0.40 to 1.05-to-1                  Attack usually fails                70%                      10

1.20 to 1.65-to-1.00             Attack often fails                    50%                      11

1.91 to 2.89-to-1.00             Attack sometimes fails          44%                       9

 

 

 

Pacific Theater of Operations (PTO) Data, U.S. attacking Japanese, 1945

 

Force Ratio                          Result                                    Percent Failure   Number of cases

1.40 to 2.89-to-1.00             Attack succeeds                        0%                     20

2.92 to 3.89-to-1.00             Attack usually succeeds        21%                      14

4.35-to-1.00 and higher       Attack usually succeeds          4%                     26

 

Force Ratios and CRTs

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Page 10 for War by Numbers includes the following table:

European Theater of Operations (ETO) Data, 1944

 

Force Ratio                          Result                        Percent Failure  Number of cases

0.55 to 1.01-to-1.00             Attack Fails                         100%                       5

1.15 to 1.88-to-1.00             Attack usually succeeds      21%                       48

1.95 to 2.56-to-1.00             Attack usually succeeds      10%                       21

2.71-to-1.00 and higher       Attacker Advances                 0%                       42

 

Many commercial wargames have something called a CRT or Combat Results Table. It is based upon force ratios. For example, this was one of the earliest CRTs used on Avalon Hill Games in the 1960s.

As can been seen from this Combat Results Table, at 1-to-1 the chances of an attack winning is one-in-three. At 2-to-1 odds the chances of the attacker winning is either the same as the defender winning or is a two-thirds chance of winning. At 3-to-1 odds, the attacker will always win.

Now the variable factor is the exchange result, which is defined that the defender removed everyone and the attacker removes as much as the defender. This usually results in an attacker win, if the attack has the right “spare change.” If the attacker was attacking with a single 7 strength unit against a 3 strength defender and they roll and exchange, then both units are eliminated.  

Compare that to the table from my book based upon 116 division-level engagements from the European Theater of Operations (1944-145).

Needless to say, some elements of my book War by Numbers are of interest to the commercial wargaming community. 

Coronavirus in the DC area – weekly update 38

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Colorized picture from California, 1918. Source: reddit

Weekly update number 38 on the coronavirus in the DC area. Decided to update my picture to something very current.

This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 12,087 new cases. While this is still very high, it is an improvement. Last week there were 15,323 new cases, the week before that 15,790 new cases, the week before that there were 10,892 new cases and seven weeks ago there were only 4,256 new cases. We are still at least six months way from having a vaccine available for everyone.

Almost all of Europe is still struggling with controlling the spread of the disease. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, is still struggling with 13K new cases reported for yesterday.  It remains high in the UK (37K yesterday, was 19K a week ago), France (12K), Spain (11K) and Russia (28K). It is still growing in Germany (36K). The U.S., which has never gotten the virus under control, had 195K new cases yesterday, slightly down from 216K new cases two Tuesdays ago. This is in contrast to places like China (78 cases), Japan (2,658), South Korea (1,090), Taiwan (4), Vietnam (6), Singapore (29), Australia (18) and New Zealand (7). 

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 cases twenty-five weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 9:22 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….25,602…..26,900……..744
Arlington, VA……………..237,521………7,594……8,121……..169
Alexandria VA……………160,530.…..…6,367……6,782……….84
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795…….37,693…..40,483……..660
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772………..146……….157……..…6
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.………..250………281……….10
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..……12,193..…12,925…….154
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011….….21,678..…23,041…….247
Manassas…………………..41,641….……2,612…….2,708……..29
Manassas Park………….…17,307…………836…..…869………..8
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……….4,207……4,578……..23
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144.………..860………941…..….8
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……..40,500….42,551…1,069
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……..48,718….51,006…1,042
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…….209,256..221,343..4,253

This is a 6% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 1.92%. Last week, there were 139 new fatalities reported out of 12,087 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 1.15%. This increased mortality rate is almost certainly driven by people who got ill several weeks ago, so in sense, the figures are now catching up from the lower mortality rates over the last few weeks. The population known to have been infected is 4.13% or one confirmed case for every 24 people. The actual rate of infection has been higher, perhaps as much as 4 times higher.

One notes a difference in the statistics between Washington DC and Fairfax County. Washington DC has 1 case per 26 people while it has 1 death per 944 people. Fairfax Country has 1 case per 28 people while it has 1 death per 1,744 people. I suspect the primary (but not the only) driver of these differing statistics is that DC is under-reporting the number of people infected.

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Most of them were emptied out due to Thanksgiving and the upcoming Christmas holidays. Many of the students are now home until mid-to-late January.

Harrisonburg, VA is reporting 4,098 cases (3,905 last week) and 40 deaths, while Rockingham County, where the town resides, is reporting 3,386 cases (3,035 last week) and 38 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located.

Charlottesville, VA has 2,089 confirmed cases (2,036 last week) and 34 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA, where the town resides, has 2,509 confirmed cases (2,351 last week) and 29 deaths. This is where UVA is located. UVA had a covid tracker which is worth looking at: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. This is definitely worth looking at, as you can see how they were able to bring the virus under control with a student body of 25,000. Apparently college students are more responsible than many adults. 

Further south, Montgomery County, VA has 4,853 cases this week (4,565 last week) and 32 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Keep in mind all these increases in this towns is occurring while the universities are not in session. It is currently growing faster than it was when they were, reinforcing my point that college students appear to be more responsible than many adults.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 3,591 cases yesterday. Last week it was 3,160 and the week before 3,860 cases. For a long time, it pretty much ran 1,000 cases a day, neither going up or going down.

Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has 888 cases (812 last week) and 5 deaths. With summer over, not sure why this continues to grow. It is growing a lot faster than during the summer.

Excess Mortality

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The decision as to whether someone is ruled to have died of the coronavirus or other natural causes is sometimes a judgment call. I have discussed before that Belgium records almost as many deaths as Germany does, yet has reported less cases then Germany has. Many people have attributed these differences to how they choose to report cases, with Germany being very strict in their reporting of when some passes away from Coronavirus. Just to give some comparative statistics (as of 722 AM):

Country…..Population….Cases…….Deaths

Germany………83.12…….1,541,775…..27,156

France…………67.15…….2,535,781…..61,019

UK……………..66.80…….2,079,678…..67,718

Italy…………….59.39…….1,964,054…..69,214

Spain…………..47.33…….1,819,249…..49,260

Netherlands…..17.54……….711,540…..10,606

Belgium……….11.55……….626,911…..18,697

Czechia……….10.71………..635,414….10,562

Austria………….8.94………..342,226……5,540

 

Population is estimates for 2020 and is in the the millions.

So, for example Germany has one death for every 57 reported cases, Belgium has one death for every 34 reported cases, whereas the UK has one death for every 31 reported cases. Of course, this is also influenced by the extent of testing. Measured to total population, Germany has one death for every 3,061 people while Belgium has one death for every 618 people (and UK has one death for every 986 people).

Now the United States (population: 330.85 million) has 18,032,824 reported cases and 319,466 reported deaths. This comes out to one death for every 56 reported cases or one death for every 1,036 people. 

I did notice an article published yesterday by AP about the estimated number of deaths in the United States for 2020: https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-deaths-2020-top-3-223015097.html

Highlights:

  1. Around 3.2 million Americans have died of all causes in 2020.
    1. There were 2,854,838 deaths in 2019.
    2. Deaths usually rise by 20,000 to 50,00 each year.
  2. Excess deaths for 2020 is around 400,000 more than 2019.
  3. These are preliminary figures.
  4. This is an increase is total deaths by 15% from 2019 to 2020.
  5. The increase from 1917 to 1918 (Spanish Flu) was 46%.

So, it does appear that the U.S. excess death totals are in line with the reported number of cases recorded as died of Coronavirus.

Disputed Elections – week 19

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The protests in Belarus continue to shrink. They report thousands of protestors in scattered locations this week, and over 100 arrested/detained (or 146 according to “Vesna”). This is the lowest arrest figure that I have seen in a while. I assume this is because there are less protestors, as opposed to the police becoming “kinder, gentler.”

A couple of personal stories:

  1. Jewish female Belarussian WWII sniper arrested: https://www.jta.org/2020/12/16/global/this-holocaust-survivor-in-belarus-was-fined-for-flying-a-symbolic-protest-flag-shes-not-backing-down
  2. Miss Belarus 2008 released: https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/miss-belarus-2008-released-after-42-days-in-prison-for-anti-government-protests/ar-BB1c6ITc?%25253Bpfr=1%253Fc
  3. The IIHF (Hockey) championships banned in Russia but not Belarus: https://tass.com/sport/1236889

 

P.S. The picture of the detained protestor is from previous months, I just happen to like it (“Beauty and the Beast”). She was identified over twitter (@A_Sannikov) as Natalia Petukhova. The arresting officer has not been identified. Picture came from @svirsky1 via @XSovietNews.

Staff Reference Guide

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The U.S. Army Staff Reference Guide, Volume I: Unclassified Resources, December 2020, ATP 5-0.2-1 has been released.

Link to it is here: https://armypubs.army.mil/epubs/DR_pubs/DR_a/ARN31193-ATP_5-0.2-1-000-WEB-1.pdf

There are ten references to “Dupuy” in the guide, which I believe is a first. I do not recall any previous Army manual referencing Trevor Dupuy’s work, even though I have seen his work in a manual or two without reference. It is nice that they have properly acknowledged his work.

The references are on:

  1. Page xi: “Acknowledgements”: four references, two for Colonel Trevor N. Dupuy and two to his son Arnold C. Dupuy,. Ph.D.
  2. Page 220: Table D-6. Division opposed rates of advance (km/day). I will have more comments about this table later.
  3. Page 285. Paragraph G-162, Casualty Estimates: Two references. I will probably have a blog post about this later.
  4. Page 402. References: Three references. I will probably have a blog post about this later also.

The two Trevor N. Dupuy books referenced in the Staff Reference Guide are the still out of print Numbers, Predictions & War (1979) and Attrition: Forecasting Battle Casualties and Equipment Losses in Modern War (1995). We still have 40 or so copies of Attrition for sale. See http://www.dupuyinstitute.org/booksfs.htm

 

Coronavirus in the DC area – update 37

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Weekly update number 37 on the coronavirus in the DC area. This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 15,323 new cases. Last week there were 15,790 new cases, the week before there were 10,892 new cases and six weeks ago there were only 4,256 new cases. This has slide out of control and we are still at least six months way from having a vaccine available for everyone.

Almost all of Europe is still struggling with controlling the spread of the disease. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, is still struggling with 15K new cases reported for yesterday.  It remains high in the UK (19K yesterday), France (12K), Spain (10K) and Russia (26K). It is still growing in Germany (34K, up from 29K last week). The U.S., which has never gotten the virus under control, had 198K new cases yesterday, slightly down from 216K new cases last Tuesday. This is in contrast to places like China (110 cases), Japan (1,672), South Korea (1,078), Taiwan (2), Vietnam (3), Singapore (16), Australia (12) and New Zealand (4). 

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 cases twenty-four weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 2:26 PM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….23,854…25,602..…..720
Arlington, VA……………..237,521………7,062…..7,594……166
Alexandria VA……………160,530.…..…5,950…..6,367……..82
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795…….34,996…37,693..….648
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772………..128……..146………6
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574.………..232…….250…..…10
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850..……11,270…12,193..….154
Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011….….20,080…21,678..….244
Manassas…………………..41,641….……2,440….2,612…..…29
Manassas Park………….…17,307…………776…….836…..….8
Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……….3,811…..4,207…….23
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144.………..795…….860……….8
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……..37,194…40,500..1,039
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……..45,345…48,718..1,007
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425……193,933..209,256..4,114

This is a 8% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 1.98%. Last week, there were 101 new fatalities reported out of 15,323 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 0.66%. The population known to have been infected is 3.90% or one confirmed case for every 26 people.

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Most of them were emptied out due to Thanksgiving and the upcoming Christmas holidays. Many of the students are now home until mid-to-late January.

Harrisonburg, VA is reporting 3,905 cases (3,680 last week) and 40 deaths, while Rockingham County, where the town resides, is reporting 3,035 cases (2,667 last week) and 38 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located.

Charlottesville, VA has 2,036 confirmed cases (1,958 last week) and 31 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA, where the town resides, has 2,351 confirmed cases (2,161 last week) and 28 deaths. This is where UVA is located. UVA had a covid tracker which is worth looking at: https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker. This is definitely worth looking at, as you can see how they were able to bring the virus under control with a student body of 25,000. Apparently college students are more responsible than many adults. 

Further south, Montgomery County, VA has 4,565 cases this week (4,260 last week) and 30 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Keep in mind all these increases in this towns is occurring while the universities are not in session. It is currently growing faster than it was when they were.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 3,160 cases yesterday. Last week it was 3,860 and the week before 2,228 cases. For a long time, it pretty much ran 1,000 cases a day, neither going up or going down.

Dare County, North Carolina, a beach area in the outer banks, has had 812 cases (744 last week) and 4 deaths. With summer over, not sure why this continues to grow. It is growing a lot faster than during the summer.

No Deal Brexit?

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This is a little out of our normal lanes of discussion, but I have watching Brexit for a while. In the end, economic power = military power, so the impact of this is worth examining. The UK is one of four of the ten largest economies in the world that are located in Europe (note that Russia is 11th, behind Canada). Here is a rough comparison between them:


……………………GDP……….Population…..Per Capita GDP……..PPP
Germany………3.8………….83.1……………..46,259…………………56,052
UK……………….2.8…………66.8………………42,300…………………48,710
France…………2.7………….67.2……………..40,494…………………49,435
Italy……………..2.0…………60.0………………33,190…………………44,197

Russia…………..1.7………146.7………………11,585…………………29,181

United States…21.4……..330.8……………..65,281…………………65,281

 

Spain……………1.4………….47.3……………..29,614…………………42,214

Netherlands….0.9………….17.5……………..52,448…………………59,687

Ukraine…………0.15……….41.7……………….3,659…………………13,341

 

These are 2019 World Bank data, which pre-dates the coronavirus. GDP is in trillions. Population is an estimate as of 2020. It is in millions. Per capita is the World Bank 2019 figures, so as to again dodge the coronavirus. It is in dollars.

So, to put in simple terms, UK and France are about the same population wise, GDP wise and in per capita GDP. Germany is a little larger and a little richer. Italy is a little smaller and a little poorer. This is a good group of candidates for a long-term comparison. 

Now, I happen to think that economically, Brexit is a bad idea. What I expect to see over time is a change in the UK GDP compared to other western European countries. But we probably won’t really know what the full impact will be until we have gotten through the coronavirus issues and economies and the rest of the world have re-adjusted back to a more normal existence. Meaning, it may be a few years before we appreciate and fully understand the impact of Brexit and its long term effects. So maybe revisit this post in 2022?