Schedule for the Third Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 8-10 October 2024

This is the first provisional schedule for the third Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We currently have 25 presentations scheduled by 17 speakers and two group discussions planned. We are looking for more presentations. Each slot is an hour long, so plan for a 45-minute presentation and 15 minutes of discussion.

The conference is at 1934 Old Gallows Road, Suite 350, Vienna, VA 22182. This is basically across the street by Tysons Corner Shopping mall and the Marriot Hotel on Route 7. It is right off the Route 7 exit from 495 (the Beltway). It is at the corner of Route 7 (Leesburg Pike) and Old Gallows Road. It is in the building above the restaurant called Rangos. Parking is in the parking garage next door to it.

Conference description is here: The Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17-19 October 2023 in Tysons Corner, VA | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Costs, Hotels and Call for Presentations: Cost of the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17 -19 October 2023 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) and Hotels for the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17-19 October 2023 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) and Call for Presentations for the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17-19 October 2023 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org).

The cost of the conference is $150 for entire conference or $60 a day. This the same as the last two years. Please pay through PayPal (www.paypal.com) to SRichTDI@aol.com. The conference is priced to cover the costs of the conference facility. We are also set up to take credit card payments by phone. Call The Dupuy Institute during working hours at (703) 289-0007.

We are set up for virtual presentations and virtual attendees. We do record the presentations but most have not been published yet.

 

Schedule: Pike and Gallows Conference Center

Updated: revised 16 February 2024

 

Day 1: Analysis of Conventional Combat

0900 – 0930    Introductory remarks – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

0930 – 1030    Studying Combat: The “Base of Sand” Problem – Dr. Shawn R. Woodford

1030 – 1130    open

1130 – 1230    Redux: Quantifying Warfare – Alexandru Filip (Canadian Center for Strategic Studies)

1230 – 1400    Lunch

1400 – 1500    Temporal and Geographic Patterns of Fatal Casualty Rates in WWI and WWII – Sasho Todorov, esquire  

1500 – 1600    reserved (wargaming) – Doug Samuelson (InfoLogix)

1600 – 1700    open

1700 – 1800    Grinch in Ukraine – Carl Larson

 

Evening (1900):    Group Dinner – Rangos

 

Day 2: Analysis of Unconventional Warfare

0900 – 1000    Iraq, Data, Hypotheses and Afghanistan (old) – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1000 – 1100    Native American Wars and Conflicts, 1500-1900 – Dr. David Cuberes

1100 – 1200    The Gaza Death Numbers – Dr. Michael Spagat (Royal Holloway University)

1200 – 1300    Lunch

1300 – 1400   Close Combat Overmatch Weapons (SLAMMER) – Joe Follansbee (Col., USA, ret.)

1400 – 1500    open  

1500 – 1600    Reserved (Jennifer Schlacht, M.A.)

1600 – 1700    Group Discussion: The Next Middle East Wars

 

Evening (1900):    Group Dinner – BJs

 

Day 3: Other Analysis of Warfare

0900 – 1000   open 

1000 – 1100    Reserved (Dr. James Slaughter)

1100 – 1200   The Future of TDI and work of the conference – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1200 – 1300    Lunch

1300 – 1400   The Red Army’s Offensive Operations in Ukraine, 1943-44 – Dr. Richard Harrison

1400 – 1500    Critique of Western Wargames of NATO-WP Conflict – Walker Gargagliano

1500 – 1600    open

1600 – 1700    Group Discussion: Russo-Ukrainian War

 

Evening:    Happy hour – Rangos 

 

 

Schedule: Einstein Conference Room

 

Day 1: Poster and Book Room

Opened at 0800

 

Afternoon Day 1: Air Warfare Analysis

1400 – 1500    open

1500 – 1600    Temporal and Geographic Patterns of Fatal Casualty Rates in WWI and WWII (part 2 or overflow presentation) – Sasho Todorov, esquire 

1600 – 1700    open

 

Day 2: Analysis of Conventional Combat – mostly virtual

0900 – 1000    Designing Computer Based AI Wargaming Systems for Simulating and Investigating Historical Battles – Clinton Reilly (Computer Strategies, Australia) – virtual

1000 – 1100    Beaches by the Numbers – Dr. Julian Spencer-Churchill (Concordia University, Quebec) – virtual

1100 – 1200   Surveying and Quantifying Naval Warfare – Alexandru Filip

1200 – 1300    Lunch

1300 – 1400    Urban Warfare: Myths and Reality – Dr. James Storr (UK) – virtual

1400 – 1500    Urban Warfare (old) – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1500 – 1600    open

1600 – 1700    open

 

Day 3: Other Analysis of Warfare

0900 – 1000    Winfield Scott: Architect of American Joint Warfare (LtC. Nathan A. Jennings) – virtual ?

1000 – 1100    The Red Army’s Plans for a Preemptive Attack in 1941 – Dr. Richard Harrison

1100 – 1200    The Impact of Horses on Native Americans – Dr. David Cuberes

1200 – 1300    Lunch    

1300 – 1400   Mass Egress after an IED Explosion: Lessons Learned about Validation – Doug Samuelson (InfoLogix)

1400 – 1500    Political Science Pedagogy in Strategic Studies (A Contrast in Quantified History) – Dr. Julian Spencer-Churchill – virtual

1500 – 1600    open

1600 – 1700    open

 

The presentations from all three days of the first HAAC are here: Presentations from the first HAAC – all three days | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org).

Friday, October 11: Tour of a Civil War Battlefield – Antietam: bloodiest day of the U.S. Civil War (and in the Western Hemisphere?). –  we will arrange transport there and back ($20 charge for tour).

Call for Presentations for the Third HAAC

We are scheduling the Third HAAC in Tysons Corner, VA (just outside of DC) for 8-10 October 2024. Making a call for presentations at this time. Conference will be similar in structure to the previous conference: The Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17-19 October 2023 in Tysons Corner, VA | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) and The Schedule for the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17 – 19 October 2023 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org).

To offer to make a presentation, just email me at LawrenceTDI@aol.com. The process is informal and we will not be asking for abstracts or papers. We just want you there presenting, so try to make it as easy as possible. 

I will be posting up an initial schedule soon.

Also of interest is the HADSS (Historical Analysis for Defence and Security Symposium) in York, UK on 8-11 July: Weighing the Fog of War (wordpress.com). I will be there. 

 

The History of the DuWar Data Bases

The original databases of battles was developed by Trevor Dupuy and HERO (Historical Evaluation and Research Organization) back in the 1980s. They were published in a six volume work in 1983 as the HERO Land Warfare Data Base. This is back in the days when a data base did not have to be computerized (paper database – how quaint) and database was two words. It is report number 95 listed here: TDI – The Dupuy Institute Publications. Descriptive link is here: Analysis of Factors that have Influenced the Outcomes of Battles and Wars (dupuyinstitute.org). Of significance, there is a detailed description of each engagement in these paper reports. It was republished in 1984, 1985 and 1986 as report numbers 100, 103 and 111 here: TDI – The Dupuy Institute Publications. The final publication named the database as CHASE. 

This effort was funded by CAA and was before my time. I came to work for HERO in 1987. There was then some back and forth between CAA, where HERO and CAA got to fighting over details of the content. One analyst at CAA sent 16 engagements out for comment. I did analyze that effort, although that file is now buried on an old Word Perfect DOS-era disk. He had four outside independent historians each analyze four engagements. The end result is the comments made corrections/improvements to 25% of the engagements, the comments did really did not change anything in 25% of the engagements, and the comments actually, if implemented, would have added error the engagements in 50% of the cases. This is fairly typical of outside comments, with 1-out-of-3 or 1-out-of-4 being helpful, and half of them would degrade the product. At that point, the project came to a griding halt, with much animosity between the arguing parties.

Then both HERO and CAA decided to independently computerize their databases. HERO added about four new engagements to their database, maybe corrected a few others, and the programmed it in a flat file called Reflex. It was 603 engagements (working off memory here) and called the LWDB (Land Warfare Data Base). CAA decided to computerize its version of 598 or 599 engagements and it was called the CHASE database. This became the CBD-90 that some people are still using. Neither of these versions included the extensive battle narratives as databases at that time could not handle large text files.

The computerized Reflex version of the LWDB was later purchased by Oak Ridge National Laboratories and published in the book by Dr. Dean Harley. It is a better version than the CBD-90. I did review the CBD-90 over twenty years ago. In the original database, there were a series of factors that were coded as to what degree they influenced the battle. In the CBD-90 about one-third of those factors (or one-third of the engagements that had those factors) – they were blanked out or mis-coded. It was a simple coding error, that as far as I know has never been corrected. 

In the meantime, around 1995 I decided we needed to reorganize and reprogram the database. We had a new database created by Jay Karamales in Access. It included text files. We loaded the old Reflex engagements in the database and then Susan Rich and I proofed the entire database back to the paper copies. Susan Rich then entered in all the narratives into the database. So this was now a complete and proofed version of the 1986 paper database. 

I then broke the database up. One of the problems with the original database is that it has engagements from 1600 next to engagements from 1973 next to a series of day-long division-level engagements from WWII next to some six-month long army-level engagements from the Great War next to battalion-level actions. While there are definitely some historical trends across all these, in some cases, depending on what you are analyzing, it is comparing apples to oranges. So, I took at mostly one-day battles from 1600-1900 and put them in a separate database (243 engagements – the  BaDB. I took all the large army-level engagements (like Battle of Verdun, Battle of the Somme) and put them into a Large Action Data Base – LADB. Basically, moved them out of the way. They were later used in part to help create the CaDB (Campaign Data Base). I put the smaller battalion-sized engagements into a separate battalion-level data base (BLODB). They left us with a core of around 300 engagements in a division-level database, mostly of 1-day engagements. All this work was done outside and independent of any contracted effort and therefore became a Dupuy Institute proprietary product. As with any proprietary product, you have to protect it.

We then expanded all these databases. In the case of the division-level database (the DLEDB), we ended up doing a series of studies for CAA on Enemy Prisoner of War capture rates in 1998-2001. We coded the division-level engagements by outcome and then using that to analyze capture rates based upon the outcomes of the battle. This effort included getting counts of the number captured and the number of deserters in each engagement. This is reports E-1 to E-8 here:  TDI – The Dupuy Institute Publications. The data used (but not the complete listing of the engagement) was included in appendices to these reports. CAA and the U.S. Army is still using these new rates.

We also added engagements to it from our urban warfare studies (CAA), reports U-1 to U-3. We used the database to analyze the urban versus non-urban combat. It was during that study we added engagements from the Channel Ports, Aachen and the three battles of Kharkov (1943). This study is discussed in two chapters in my book War by Numbers. We also took the time and put in 192 engagements from the Battle of Kursk (1943) based upon our work on the Kursk Data Base. All these Kursk engagements are listed (abbreviated) in my big Kusk: The Battle of Prokhorovka book. We also did a study on situational awareness for OSD Net Assessment (Andy Marshall’s old office). This is report SA-1 and also two chapters in my book War by Numbers. We ended up coding 295 division-level engagements based upon their knowledge of the enemy (by reviewing their intel reports of the divisions involved). We then reviewed what was the measurable combat advantage of improved situation awareness based upon real-world combat data. So, as in the EPW study, we took our original database and added additional filled-in fields so as to be able to do properly analyze the issue. This last expansion of the database was completed in 2004.

At that point, the division-level database had 752 cases in it. We had done some additional work on the old Italian Campaign engagements to clean them up and revise them. In particular Richard Anderson collected UK records from PRO and we cross-checked and revised all the UK engagements in the database and expanded the number of Italian Campaign engagements from about 70 to around 140. We then stopped work on the database in 2004.

During that time, we also expanded the battalion-level database to around 200 actions. We also had created a Campaign Data Base as part of our work, to examine operations above division-level and that last more than a few days. This was recently used for my presentation on Force Ratios that I gave at the second HAAC and in Norway in early November. See: The Schedule for the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17 – 19 October 2023 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org). In 2010 we created a small draft company-level database under contract with Boeing of 100 cases. A listing of most of these databases is here: TDI – The Dupuy Institute Publications. It does not include the company-level database, the Battle of Britain database nor the Dupuy Insurgency Spread Sheets (DISS) as we have not updated that page.

Obviously, people are going to ask: how can they get access to these databases. The answer is that you cannot until someone is willing to purchase them at a price that I willing to release them for. With the internet any single sale of the database will result in the release of the entire database to the world. So, any price would have to address the fact that these powerful and unique databases, which are proprietary to The Dupuy Institute, would be shared with the world. This includes potential business competitors. We still rely on contracts for our funding and these databases are part of our “product.” So, cost of giving away an exclusive competitive advantage? We would be willing to sell them to an organization if the price is right and they could then be publicly released. So far no one has made a significant concrete offer to us.

 

So other links:

Some Background on TDI Data Bases | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Dupuy Institute Data Bases | Mystics & Statistics

Cost of Creating a Data Base | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The Division Level Engagement Data Base (DLEDB) | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Battalion and Company Level Data Bases | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Other TDI Data Bases | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Using the DLEDB:

Average Losses per Day in Division-level Engagements on the Eastern Front in 1943 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Density of Deployment in Ukraine | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The U.S. Army Three-to-One Rule versus the 752 Case Division-level Data Base 1904-1991 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Comparing Force Ratios to Casualty Exchange Ratios | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Comparing the RAND Version of the 3:1 Rule to Real-World Data | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Summation of Force Ratio Posts | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Amphitheater, 9 – 11 September 1943 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Amphibious and River Crossing Engagements in the Italian Campaign 1943-44 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The World War I Cases from the Division-level Database | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The World War II Cases from the Division-level Database | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Post-World War II Cases from the Division-level Database | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Force Ratios in the Arab-Israeli Wars (1956-1973) | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Other discussion:

Battles versus Campaigns (for Validation) | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Validation Data Bases Available (Ardennes) | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Validation Data Bases Available (Kursk) | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Other Validation Data Bases | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The Use of the Two Campaign Data Bases | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Measuring the Effects of Combat in Cities, Phase II – part 1 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Presentations from HAAC – Urban Warfare | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The Battle of Britain Data Base | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Presentations from HAAC – Data for Wargames | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The U.S. Army Three-to-One Rule versus 243 Battles 1600-1900 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The U.S. Army Three-to-One Rule versus 49 U.S. Civil War battles | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Using the CBD:

The Key to Victory: Machine Learning the Lessons of History | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Presentations from HAAC – Machine Learning the Lessons of History | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

There is more….

Phalanx Article: What We Have Learned from Doing Historical Analysis | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Are we the world leader in military historical analysis?

I was assembling some marketing material and came up with the cheesy phrase “The world leader in military historical analysis since 1962.”

Now, is that actually true? I kind of think so. If it is not us, then who is the world leader in military historical analysis? What about non-military historical analysis? Is there a leader there? 

Second question: Is it too cheesy or overly presumptive?

Of course, by saying since 1962 we are laying claim to the entire Dupuy legacy, going back to these early reports: TDI – The Dupuy Institute Publications. We did set up 8 of his first 11 reports as free downloads in this link.

The report that has gotten a lot of attention recently is No. 4 “Historical Trends Related to Weapons Lethality (1964)”. This was the report that created the Theoretical Lethality Index (TLI). We have posted about this before: Scoring Weapons And Aggregation In Trevor Dupuy’s Combat Models | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) and What Is The Relationship Between Rate of Fire and Military Effectiveness? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) among other posts.

A definition of historical analysis is provided here: The Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17-19 October 2023 in Tysons Corner, VA | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org). We are probably going to host the third HAAC 8-10 October 2024 at Tysons Corner. 

The False Lessons of Modern War

Hard to ignore an article that name checks Trevor Dupuy and I. Attached is an article by William F. Owen in the British Army Review, Autumn 2023 Issue. I hope I am not breaking some copyright by posting it up: Owen, The False Lessons of Modern War-Why Ignorance is Not Insight (2023). It is available on-line here: The false lessons of modern war: Why ignorance is not insight – Issuu. The full title of the article is “The False Lessons of Modern War: Why Ignorance is not Insight.”

Trevor Dupuy is namechecked in the article: “Much was less than certain, yet paradoxically, a book written in 1978, Trevor N Dupuy’s Elusive Victory, had got far more right than later writers were to get wrong.” That is a pretty strong endorsement. 

He then footnotes the book in his third footnote, referencing losses in 1967.

In the following paragraph he states: “Simply put, no conflict today comes even close to these types of losses, yet the myth persists that war and warfare are becoming ‘more lethal.’ They are not, and a large body of literature proves it.” His footnote to this paragraph then states “See the collected work of Trevor N Dupuy and Christopher Lawrence, Understanding War, War by Numbers and Attrition.”

I like this guy, but I have never met him. He is certainly welcome to present at the third HAAC: The Third HAAC – October 2024? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

A few other quotes from the article worth mentioning:

  1. “Lessons should be a product of analysis, not observation.” (I put this sentence in bold for a reason).
  2. “Observations have often been wrong” (this is his following sentence)
  3. “Warfare in the Russo-Ukrainian War is two or three generations behind the standard competent, well-trained armies should aspire to operate.”
  4. “…fires lead manoeuvre in contrast to the opinions of the ‘manouverist approach.” (spell check is complaining about the British spellings).
  5. “Fast forward to today and the war in Ukraine; there is far less to be learned than in 1973.”
  6. “Why should the lessons from Ukraine be removed from the specific context of the participant’s differing training and equipment level and be relevant to the British Army?”
  7. “Is something that is a lesson for the Ukrainians a lesson for everyone else?”
  8. “In sharp contrast, the current war in Ukraine sees much-outdated equipment in ad-hoc combat formations, not seemingly underpinned by NATO equivalent training, doctrine and organisation levels.”

I will let you read the rest, but this is a definitely an article worth reading, even if you find yourself not in agreement with all parts of it. 

I do want to thank Dr. Shawn Woodford for bringing this to my attention.

 

P.S.

Elusive Victory is available here: TDI Books For Sale (dupuyinstitute.org)

Understanding War is here: TDI Books For Sale (dupuyinstitute.org)

War by Numbers is here: War by Numbers : Nebraska Press (unl.edu) or here: War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat: Lawrence, Christopher A.: 9781612348865: Amazon.com: Books

Attrition is here: TDI Books For Sale (dupuyinstitute.org). Inventory is getting low for this one.

The Third HAAC – October 2024?

We are definitely hosting a third HAAC. The tentative date is Tuesday-Thursday, 8-10 October 2024. The tentative location is the same conference area in Tysons Corner, VA (near DC). 

Anyhow, already putting together a list of presentations and presenters. The first HAAC had 32 presentations by 23 speakers and 2 group discussions. The second HAAC had 37 presentations by 29 speakers and 2 group discussions. More is better. Looking for new presenters and for all of our old presenters to return.

Email me at LawrenceTDI@aol.com.

 

The Schedule for the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17 – 19 October 2023

This is the thirteenth provisional schedule for the second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We have 37 presentations scheduled by 28 speakers and two group discussions planned. Each slot is an hour long, so planning for a 45-minute presentation and 15 minutes of discussion.

The conference is at 1934 Old Gallows Road, Suite 350, Vienna, VA 22182. This is basically across the street by Tysons Corner Shopping mall and the Marriot Hotel on Route 7. It is right off the Route 7 exit from 495 (the Beltway). It is at the corner of Route 7 (Leesburg Pike) and Old Gallows Road. It is in the building above the restaurant called Rangos. Parking is in the parking garage next door to it.

Conference description is here: The Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17-19 October 2023 in Tysons Corner, VA | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Costs, Hotels and Call for Presentations: Cost of the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17 -19 October 2023 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) and Hotels for the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17-19 October 2023 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org) and Call for Presentations for the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17-19 October 2023 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org).

The cost of the conference is $150 for entire conference or $60 a day. Please pay through PayPal (www.paypal.com) to SRichTDI@aol.com. The conference is priced to cover the costs of the conference facility. We are also set up to take credit card payments by phone. Call The Dupuy Institute during working hours at (703) 289-0007.

We are set up for virtual presentations and virtual attendees. We are exploring the costs of having the presentations professionally recorded.

 

Schedule: Pike and Gallows Conference Center

Updated: revised 16 October 2023

 

 

Day 1: Analysis of Conventional Combat

0900 – 0930    Introductory remarks – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

0930 – 1030    Studying Combat: The “Base of Sand” Problem – Dr. Shawn R. Woodford

1030 – 1130    A Cautionary Tale: Alternative Interpretations of the Same Data – Jim Storr – virtual

1130 – 1230    Land Operations – consistencies and discrepancies between theory, historical analysis and doctrine – LtC. Trygve Smidt (Norway)

1230 – 1400    Lunch

1400 – 1500    Temporal and Geographic Patterns of Fatal Casualty Rates in WWI and WWII – Sasho Todorov, esquire  

1500 – 1600    The French Air Force in the 1940 Campaign – Dr. James F. Slaughter

1600 – 1700    Force Ratios – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1700 – 1800    Grinch in Ukraine – Carl Larson

 

Evening (1900):    Group Dinner – Rangos

 

 

Day 2: Analysis of Unconventional Warfare

0900 – 1000    Iraq, Data, Hypotheses and Afghanistan (old) –  Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1000 – 1100    Evidence of Fabricated Survey Data Collected during the War in Iraq – Dr. Michael Spagat (Royal Holloway University of London)

1100 – 1200   Urban Warfare (old) – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1200 – 1300    Lunch

1300 – 1400    The Right Way to Do Risk Analysis: A Primer and Update, With Examples from Pandemics – Dr. Doug Samuelson (InfoLogix)

1400 – 1500    Close  Combat Overmatch Weapons (SLAMMER) – Joe Follansbee (Col., USA, ret.)

1500 – 1600    Chemical Weapons in Syria – Jennifer Schlacht, M.A. – virtual

1600 – 1700    Group Discussion: The Next Middle East Wars

 

Evening (1900):    Group Dinner – BJs

 

 

Day 3: Other Analysis of Warfare

0900 – 1000    Addressing the Decline in War Question with New Disaggregated Data – Dr. Michael Spagat (Royal Holloway University of London)

1000 – 1100    The Application of the Scientific Method to Military History – Clinton Reilly (Computer Strategies, Australia) – virtual

1100 – 1200   The Future of TDI and work of the conference (new) – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1200 – 1300    Lunch

1300 – 1400   The Red Army’s Offensive Operations in Ukraine, 1943-44 – Dr. Richard Harrison

1400 – 1500    Russian Information Warfare Against Western Democracies Since 2013: A review and update – Dr. Doug Samuelson (InfoLogix)

1500 – 1600    Wagner Group structure and new infantry tactics – Carl Larson

1600 – 1700    Group Discussion: Russo-Ukrainian War

 

Evening:    Happy hour – Rangos 

 

 

Schedule: Einstein Conference Room

 

Day 1: Poster and Book Room

Opened at 0800

 

Afternoon Day 1: Air Warfare Analysis

1400 – 1500    French Aerial Bombing Problem 1914-1940 – Dr. James F. Slaughter

1500 – 1600    Temporal and Geographic Patterns of Fatal Casualty Rates in WWI and WWII (part 2 or overflow presentation) – Sasho Todorov, esquire 

1600 – 1700    Air Combat Analysis on the Eastern Front in 1944-45 – Daniel Horvath – virtual

 

 

Day 2: Analysis of Conventional Combat – all virtual

0900 – 1000    Unburdened by History: Understanding Russia’s Growing Influence in Haiti – Dr. Christopher Davis (UNCG) – virtual

1000 – 1100   World War 2 Operational Research Revisited – John Magill (UK) – virtual 

1100 – 1200   The Stochastic Salvo Model for Naval Combat: Applications to Aircraft Carrier Combat in 1942 – Geoffrey Clark – virtual

1200 – 1300    Lunch

1300 – 1400    Machine Learning the Lessons of History      Dr. Robert Helmbold – virtual (repeat)

1400 – 1500    The Promised Land: Four Thousand Years of Mid-East Conflict? – Dr. Robert Helmbold – virtual

1500 – 1600    Operation “Sea Lion”: Simulating the German 1940 invasion of England – Dr. Niall MacKay (University of York) & Dr. Ian Horwood (York St. John University) – part 1 – virtual

1600 – 1700    Operation “Sea Lion”: Simulating the German 1940 invasion of England – Dr. Jamie Wood (University of York) & Dr. Chris Price (York St. John University) – part 2 – virtual

 

 

Day 3: Researching Operations

0900 – 1000    The AEF and Consolidation of Gains Operations During the Meuse-Argonne Offensive – Dr. Christopher Davis (UNCG) – virtual

1000 – 1100    Wargaming 101 – William Sayers – virtual

1100 – 1200    The Red Army’s Plans for a Preemptive Attack in 1941 – Dr. Richard Harrison

1200 – 1300    Lunch    

1300 – 1400    Penetrate, Dis-Integrate and Exploit: The Israeli Counter-Offensive at the Suez Canal, 1973 – LtC. Nathan A Jennings, PhD – virtual

1400 – 1500    Competing Proxy Strategies in the Russo-Ukrainian War and a War of Attrition – LtC. Amos Fox – virtual

1500 – 1600    1) Patterns of Explosive Weapons Use in Ukraine – and – 2) IED Attacks Targeting State and International Armed Actors: Trend and Patterns 2013-2022 – Chiara Torelli (AOAV) – virtual

1600 – 1700    A Naval Power Index: The U.S. Navy vs three challengers – Imperial Japan, USSR and PRC China – Geoffrey Clark – virtual

 

 

The presentations from all three days of the first HAAC are here: Presentations from the first HAAC – all three days | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org).

Second HAAC is next week, 17-19 October

Just a reminder that the second HAAC is next week. So far we have received payments from 10 people, including one (discounted) student. Please make your payments to PayPal to SRichTDI@aol.com. You can also make a credit card payment by calling (703-289-0007) or emailing me at LawrenceTDI@aol.com I will be on travel from Wed through Sunday (11-15). 
 
 
 

 

Virtual Attendance of HAAC

The Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC) is set up for virtual attendees. This will be done via Zoom. The conference will be held in Tysons Corner, VA (near DC). 

This conference is self-funding, meaning that the money collected from the participants fund the conference. Last year the conference ran at a loss. Therefore, all virtual attendees have to pay the conference fees the same as physical attendees. Cost of attendance is $150 for three days or $60 a day.

So far, we have 13 virtual presenters who will also be attending. We do not have any virtual attendees who are not presenters. If anyone wants to be a virtual attendee to the conference either email me at LawrenceTDI@aol.com, call me at (703) 289-0007 or simply make a payment with a note and your email address to our Paypal account at SRichTDI@aol.com.

Thank you.

 

P.S. Conference schedule is here: The Schedule for the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17 – 19 October 2023 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The Russo-Ukrainian War – Day 582

More minor advances. Again, mostly clean up, vice any new operations. To date, neither side has really achieved what they were hoping. The real issue now is whether the support for this war will be maintained by Ukraine’s allies or the Russian populace as it appears this war is heading to a third year.

Ukraine did take the village Andriivka south of Bakhmut along with the village Klishchiivka. Ukraine is still advancing towards Verbove. They are supposedly now through the first defensive line in this area. Ukraine still has another 30 to 60 days to do something, but right now not much is going on. So, we could be in for an “October surprise” but I doubt it. 

Ukraine appears to have penetrated the first line in the area south of Orikhiv and is looking to slowly expand that area under control. While this is progress, it is not much for an offensive that has now gone for almost four months. The Russians have a layered defense consisting of three lines. Some people are claiming that 60 percent labor and resources were spent on the first line and only 20 percent on the next two. I have not checked this. 

Still, there is some sense that the Russian defenses are stretched. As U.S. General Milley described it on 16 August (via WP): “The Russians are in pretty rough shape. So they’ve suffered huge amount of casualties. Their morale is not great. Their leadership is questionable and spotty….Logistics is not great.” This assessment does appear to have some validity.

Discussions on Prigozhin and Wagner, the grain deal, prisoner exchanges, reinforcements, etc. are in the Day 552 post: The Russo-Ukrainian War – Day 552 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org).

I will put any changes/updates since my last post in italics. A link to a blow up of the map is here: Wikipedia mapIt is dated 28 September. The last dated update on the map was 11 June 2023, although it has clearly been updated to show Klishchiivka in Ukrainian hands..

Russia currently occupies five cities since that start of the invasion: Lysychansk (pop. 95,031), Severodonetsk (pop. 101,135), Mariupol (pop. 431,859), Berdyansk (pop. 107,928) and Melitopol (pop. 150,768). Kherson (pop. 283,649) was retaken by Ukraine on 11 November 2022.

 

Weather: Kharkiv at 6 PM: It is 72 degrees (22 Celsius) and clear. No rain forecasted for the next seven days.

Kherson is 78 degrees (26 Celsius) and mostly sunny. No rain forecasted for the next seven days.

Ukrainian Army Build-up: At least 10 M-1s are in Ukraine. They were confirmed to arrive by 25 September. Also, the first 10 of a 100 Leopard Is (older, less armored version of the tank) have arrived in Ukraine.

It is claimed that the U.S. and its allies have now trained 63,000 Ukrainian troops. The current Ukrainian armed forces are certainly in excess of 300,000, so over 80% of their troops have been trained by themIt is reported that some of the troops are learning how to use some equipment from YouTube videos.

Since the start of this offensive four months ago, Ukraine has lost at least 5 of its 71 Leopard IIs, with at least 10 out for repairs. They lost their first Challenger II on 5 September. These are not heavy armor losses, which are often lost at a much higher rate than personnel losses during offensive operations (see Dupuy: Attrition).

Russian Army Build-up: Nothing new to report. Russian morale is suspect, with an officer flying a Mi-8 defecting last month. In his interview, he claimed that his family was smuggled out of Russia by Ukrainian operatives before he defected.

The U.S. is now saying there are 200,000 Russian troops in Ukraine. The Ukrainian defense intel guys last week said it is over 420,000. That is kind of the lower and upper limits of my guesses. So, both figures look good, but obviously at least one is wrong.

Seen some convoluted math on twitter that calculated Russian dead, Russian recruitment and Russian strength. The only way they could get that to work was to use a wounded-to-killed ratio of 2.4-to-1. That is lower ratio than what the Soviet Union had in World War II (Battle of Kursk figures, 1943), before they had penicillin. It looks like they had to assume the lower wounded-to-kill figure to make the math work. They probably need rework their estimates. I seriously doubt they have any hard evidence to justify such a low wounded-to-killed ratio.

Opposing forces: Complete write-up is available in this post: The Russo-Ukrainian War – Day 471 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org).

Economics and the Home Fronts: The complete write-up is available in this post: The Russo-Ukrainian War – Day 380 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)Price of oil (Brent Crude) is high at 93.12 as of 11:36 AM EST. Ruble is still low at 96.13 to the dollar.

Casualties: The last extended casualty discussion was in the Day 560 post here: The Russo-Ukrainian War – Day 560 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org). This is a reduced posting.

We do have reported U.S. intel reports that claim that Russian casualties are up to 120,000 killed and Ukraine casualties are close to 70,000 killed. For various reasons, I really don’t buy into these higher figures. This is discussed here: The New York Times casualty reports | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The UN is reporting as of 10 September at least 9,614 civilians confirmed dead in the war. Updated chart from the UN provided the following chart showing civilian losses by month through August.

More than 60,000 people have died in this conflict: 32,656 or more (Russian Army – Mediazona count as of 22 September) + 16,000 or more (Ukrainian Army – old U.S. DOD estimate) + 9,614 (Civilians) + 4,176 (DPR in 2022) + 600 (LPR April 2022) = 62,145. It may be in excess of 120,000 total deaths depending on Ukrainian and Russian military deaths and the real count of civilian losses. Suspect Russian killed is at least 60,000 and Ukrainian military deaths are at least 45,000.

The head of Chechen, Ramzan Kadyrov, age 46, is ill and reported to be in a comma. A recent video shows him in a hospital but conscious and talking: Ramzan Kadyrov Appears in Hospital Video Amid Health Speculation | Watch (msn.com).There were reports six months ago over his health: Top Putin ally Ramzan Kadyrov ‘seriously ill from suspected poisoning’ (msn.com). I gather there are no longer any Chechen troops on the front line.

Ammo: Complete write-up is available in this post: The Russo-Ukrainian War – Day 471 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org).

The U.S. is reporting that it is now producing 24,000 155mm shells a month. This is up from 14,000 before the war.

Air Power: Previous discussion of air power is in the Day 443 post: The Russo-Ukrainian War – Day 443 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org). Also see Day 560 post for additional material: The Russo-Ukrainian War – Day 560 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org).  

Ukrainians will began training on F-16 this month according to Zelenskyy. I gather this will not be a quick process, as there are a limited number of Ukrainian pilots available with a good command of English. The U.S. did confirm this week (on 18 August) that we will allow third parties to provide Ukraine with F-16s. This includes 42 from Netherlands, their entire inventory. Russian indiscriminate use of SAMs continues to haunt them. It also includes 19 from Denmark. Norway will also be providing some F-16s.

The U.S. will start training Ukrainians on F-16 in Arizona come October. It will probably be a while before Ukraine has the planes. The Dutch are now saying 6 to 8 months. Still, these 61+ F-16s will give Ukraine some capability to contest the air space.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian drone campaign against Russia has continued. On 29 August, drones attack Pskov airport near Estonia. According to Russians 4 IL-76 transport aircraft were damaged. According to photographic evidence, at least two were destroyed.

Naval War: Ukraine launched UK Storm Shadow cruise missiles and sea drones at Sevastopol yesterday (13 September). Some were intercepted but it appears that the Russian 4,012-long-ton (full load) landing ship Minsk and a kilo-class attack submarine B-237 (3,040 tons) were damaged. It appears that Ukraine is trying to make Crimea untenable. This does not regain the peninsula but may have a negotiating advantage.

The Ukrainians also attacked two Project 22160 patrol ship (1300-1700 tons) in the southwestern part of Black Sea on 14 September.

Ukraine also attacked and may have hit the Bora-class guided missile corvette (1,050 tonnes) Samum using one of their “sea baby” drones. This is one of the largest air cushion or surface effect ships (SES) (i.e. a sidewall hovercraft) ships in existence. It is also a catamaran.

The Ukrainians also hit the Russian naval headquarters in Sevastopol on 22 September using at least two British supplied Storm Shadow cruise missiles. The Ukrainians claimed 34 Russian officers killed, including the commander of the Black Sea Fleet and 105 soldiers were wounded. The Russians claimed that only 6 were injured and no one killed. Russia did show a video show the commander looking very alive. On 25 September, Russia announced it was demolishing the HQ building.

By its use of missiles and drones, Ukraine has wrestled partial control of the western half of the Black Sea. There have now been over a half-dozen ships that have sailed from Odesa to Bosporus even though no grain deal is in place. 

Missile Defense: Discussion of previous missiles attack is in the Day 443 post: The Russo-Ukrainian War – Day 443 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org). It was updated in this post: The Russo-Ukrainian War – Day 471 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org).

End of the War: Looks like this war will be continuing onto until at least fall of 2023. Complete write-up of this section is available in this post: The Russo-Ukrainian War – Day 380 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org).

Atrocities: Complete write-up is available in this post: The Russo-Ukrainian War – Day 355 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org). Updates are provided in this post: The Russo-Ukrainian War – Day 471 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org).

Ukrainian reforms: Complete write-up is available in this post: The Russo-Ukrainian War – Day 355 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org).

The attempts to clean up corruption and reform the government has gotten serious. The Ukranian defense minister, Reznikov, has finally been replaced as of 3/5 September. This looked like something that had to happen. Two weeks before Zelenskyy removed all the officers in charge of recruiting over corruption issues. He has also conducted a review of the military medical commissions. Zelensky is also pushing a bill in the Rada (their parliament) to define corruption during wartime as treason. They have also detained a prominent Ukrainian oligarch (Forbes estimates that he is worth $1 billion) who owns the TV station that aired Zelenskyy’s old show “Servant of the People.” He is being investigated for fraud and money laundering.

The new defense minister is Rustem Umierov, who is Muslim. He is from a Crimean Tatar family. He was sworn in by the Rada on 6 September.

The Ukrainians are in discussion whether to hold elections next March. I think they absolutely must do so, especially in light of the lack of support for Ukraine by significant elements of the U.S. Republican Party. See: Presidential Elections – 2024 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org).

Other Issues:

U.S. Support for Ukraine: Write-up on U.S. support for Ukraine is in the Day 443 post here: The Russo-Ukrainian War – Day 443 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org). It is going to be a long campaign season until November 2024, so certainly we will revisit this issue at some point. The total amount of support committed by the U.S. to Ukraine is $133 Billion.

The U.S. resolved its “debt crisis” with the debt limit being suspended until 2025. Defense spending is capped at $886 billion, or 3.5% increase over the previous year. This matches the current administrations budget request. Spending on defense is limited to a 1% growth in 2025, or up to $895 billion. We will see if things get balled up with a government shut down on 1 October.

The second Republican primary debate occurred on 27 September. Four candidates clearly and strongly indicated that they support Ukraine (Christie, Haley, Pence and Scott). The Republican Party seems to split on this issue.

A few dates to keep in mind for the American political campaigns: 1) the third Republican debate is scheduled sometime in early November, 2) the tentative start date for the criminal trial in Fulton County Georgia is October 23 at the request of two of the defendants. The other 17 defendants, including Donald Trump, will be tried later, date not yet not declared, 3) the Iowa caucuses will be on 15 January 2024, 4) the Nevada primary will be on 6 February 2024, 5) the New Hampshire primary is scheduled for 13 February 2024, 6) 24 February is SC primary, then MI, 7) The date for the DOJ Special Council criminal trial for charges related to the 6 January incidents in now scheduled for 4 March, 8) on 5 March 14 states will hold their primaries and between 9 – 23 March another 15 states/territories will hold their primaries. The Republican nominee could be decided by then, 9) 25 March is the trial date for Donald Trump’s New York Stormy Daniel’s related case, 10) 20 May is the trial date for Donald Trump’s classified documents case, 11) last Republican primary is 4 June 2024. I actually do think this is war related news as the currently the three of the four leading Republican presidential candidates do not support Ukraine.

Former VP and Republican presidential candidate Mike Pence was in Ukraine in July. He fully supports the war effort. On 13 July, the House took a vote on cutting off aid to Ukraine. The vote was 358-70 rejecting the amendment. All 70 opposed votes were Republican. See: Here are the 70 House Republicans who voted to cut off all US military aid to Ukraine (msn.com). There are 222 Republicans in the house, so this is a minority opinion in the party supported maybe a third of Republicans in the house. It is also the opinion that appears to be held by their two presidential nomination front runners.

Also, see the Day 443 posts for previous reports on the EU, NATO, Georgia and Nagorno-Karabakh. On 20 May, Lavrov’s daughter (Lavrov is the foreign minister of Russia) attended a wedding in Georgia. There were protests by the Georgians, with her car egged. She was forced to leave because of the public reaction.

European Support for Ukraine: A pro-Russian candidate and the Smer party is leading in the parliamentary elections for Slovakia that are scheduled for 30 September. Their leader has promised to not send a single bullet to Ukraine. See: Opinion polling for the 2023 Slovak parliamentary election – Wikipedia.

Ukraine is gotten into an argument with some of its eastern European allies over exportation of cheaper grain. Poland was threatening to cut off military aide to Ukraine. They are also threatening to send all the Ukrainian migrants home. It appears that they are now working it out.

Belarus: It has been reported by Ukraine that Russia has completely withdrawn their ground forces from Belarus. Nuclear weapons are discussed in the Day 560 post: The Russo-Ukrainian War – Day 560 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

NATO: As of 4 April, Finland is a member of NATO. Sweden is still awaiting approval from Hungary and Turkey.  As of 10 July, it looks like Erdogan of Turkey has finally agreed to let Sweden into NATO. Hungary is not expected to block this. Erdogan, age 69, won the election on 28 May with 52% of the vote. Voter turn-out was 84%. Next election is in five years. See Day 443 for more info. Meanwhile, the head of NATO is supporting renewal of talks about Turkey joining the EU.

Nagorno-Karabakh: Well, it looks like Azerbaijan has taken the capital of Karabakh, the town of Khankendi (pop. 75,000 in 2021) and closed down the Lachin Corridor. This was a two-day offensive covering 19 and 20 September that took the rest of the country. This ends the conflict for the moment, with Azerbaijan having completely taken the Nagorno-Karabakh area between its war in 2020 and the events of the last week. The President of Artkakh (Karabakh) issued a decree of 28 September to dissolve all state institutions from 1 January 2024. The state effectively does not exist now, having first come into existence in late 1991, as the Soviet Union was breaking up.

There were Russian peacekeepers, around 2,000 in the area. They were unable to stop Azerbaijan and took casualties. The deputy commander of the Russian peacekeeping force has been killed, as were at least four other officers. It kind of shows that Russia is currently not able to control the Caucasus. One wonders what is next.

Protests continue against the Armenian government in Yerevan. They started on 19 September with thousands protesting and are continuing. On 25 September 140 protesters were arrested. It appears both the protestors and the government are western leaning, but there is general dissatisfaction with the government over having lost the war in Karabakh.

Sections on Kazakhstan, European Support, Iran and Miscellaneous were last reported in the blog post for day 408 here: The Russo-Ukrainian War – Day 408 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org). They have been removed from this post.