Monthly Archives: January 2020

Blast Injuries in Iraq

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Photograph taken by Official War Photographer at an Australian Advanced Dressing Station near Ypres in 1917. The wounded soldier in the lower left of the photograph has the “thousand yard stare” indicative of shell-shock.

There were at least 50 people who suffered blast injuries from the Iranian missile attacks in Iraq. These are referred to by the acronym TBI for traumatic brain injuries. There were around 200 people in that blast zone who were screened for symptoms.

See: https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/28/politics/50-injuries-iran-strike/index.html

Of those 18 were evacuated to Germany for further evaluation and treatment and I gather at least 8 of these were then evacuated to the U.S. If the injury was serious enough to require evacuation out of the war zone, then this is clearly something a whole lot worse than a “headache.”

Blast injuries have been an ongoing problem in our combat forces for the better part of two decades. Some of this has been brought about by the extensive use of IEDs in Iraq and Afghanistan. Some of these IEDs are tied to artillery shells and other large amounts of explosives, resulting in a significant blast. People can be “lightly wounded” in the traditional sense, and still have significant injuries from the blast.

Added to that, we now have a better understanding of the significance of these brain injuries, including concussions. This is not only from combat, but also from such contact sports as American Football and hockey. Hockey has instituted significant concussion protocols and this is now something that is monitored at both the junior levels and more advance levels of hockey. It is no more a matter of just getting rattled, shaking it off and keep on playing. American Football is still struggling to address these issues, especially with the large number of professional players reporting long term brain injuries. Needless to say, brain injures from blast can be significant and have long-term debilitating affects.

This of course is not entirely new, but we are just now beginning to understand the full extent and nature of TBIs. In World War I they used to talk about “shell shock.”

See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shell_shock

Interesting Article on the Chinese Government

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Interesting article on the Chinese government and the Chinese public perceptions of it. From the New York Times: Virus Crisis Exposes Cracks in China’s Facade of Unity

The main point of the article is that the government has already come under criticism for the crisis that has developed in Wunan. One post on a social media site stated:

The current system looks so vibrant yet it’s shattered completely by a governance crisis. We game up our rights in exchange for protection. But what kind of protection is it? Where will our long-lasting political apathy lead us?

“The post was shared over 7,000 times and liked 27,000 times before censors deleted it,” according to the article.

This reinforces the argument I was making in the fourth point, Internal Stability in China, in yesterday’s post.

Map of Coronavirus

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This link leads to a map of the Coronavirus. It is from Johns Hopkins University: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

As of 11:00 PM 28 January they were reporting 6,057 confirmed cases and 132 deaths.

 

P.S. As of 9:00 PM 29 January they were reporting 7,783 confirmed cases and 170 deaths. To date, no deaths have been outside of China. Below is a graph of “total confirmed cases” from that site:

P.P.S. As of 9:30 PM 30 January they were reporting 9,776 confirmed cases and 213 deaths. To date, no deaths have been outside of China. Below is a graph of “total confirmed cases” from that site:

The Snowballing Effects of a Virus?

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Again, this is not my area of expertise, since I’m mostly into Pfizer stock speculation and such, but as the Coronavirus does not seem to be going away any time soon, probably worthwhile to look at the effects of such a disease if it continues to expand, beyond the issues of health and mortality.

Economic Effects in China: Right now, around 60 million people are in partial or full lock down. The current population of China is over 1.4 billion, so this is 4% of the population. So lets say that their economic activity is reduced by at least 20% (it may be more). Let us say this is a ripple effect that impacts three times that amount of people (as they certainly trade with others). The most immediate economic impact of the virus is on consumption and travel. So 0.12 x 0.8 = 0.96 or basically a 1% decline in the Chinese economy/growth rate. The Chinese economy is growing at around 6% a year. Now, if this virus lasts for three months, it is simply a blip on the charts. If it lasts the better part of a year, we will see a reduction in the growth rate of the economy. On the other hand, if the virus continues to spread and more people and cities are on lock down, then the economic impact could be more significant.

Note: These are all the companies who have shut down operations….

International Economics: The Chinese economy now makes up 16% of the world economy. They are certainly the manufacturing hub in many industries (for example, my first Kursk book was printed there). So, any disruption in the Chinese economy will result in a decline worldwide. These fears were amplified this last Monday morning when the DOW declined by over 500 points, which is almost a 2% drop. Now it was recorded somewhat and as of 1:00 PM on Monday was at 337 (1.16%). Still this shows the economic impact on the markets. Of course, the market going down 1 or 2% does not mean the economy is in decline, but it does indicate that this is a global concern.

Oil Prices: U.S. oil prices were down on Monday morning by nearly 2% also to $53.13 a barrel. Now oil prices directly affect consumers as we can see the fluctuations from day to day at the gas pump, but…..if also significantly impacts the economy of Russia, which relies heavily upon taxes on oil and natural gas for its budget. As of 1 PM on Monday, the exchange rate for rubles to dollars went from 62 rubles to 63 rubles.

Internal Stability in China: Keep in mind that China had a major internal unrest incident in 1989 with Tiananmen Square. They have been hesitant since then to run over people with tanks. More to the point, the continued growth of the Chinese economy has dampened much of the political and internal unrest, and will probably continue to do so as long as the economy continues to grow. Many people (and I am one of them) does consider that the development of a capitalist economy under control of a communist regime is a fundamental contradiction that at some point will lead to political unrest. This was the case 30 years ago, and if the economy stagnates or decline, I have no doubt will be the case again. Added to that, right now there has been an extended pro-democracy protest in the Chinese city of Hong Kong that has not been resolved. Is this an isolated case, being a former British colony; or is it the first of many others? I do get the sense that the stability of China is not guaranteed and could be quickly become an issue if the economy declines.

Internal Stability of Russia: The Russian economy is tied to oil prices, maybe not as much as Iran and Saudi Arabia, but enough that this is a big issue. In 2012 oil, gas and petroleum products account for over 70% of their total exports. Russia already had one extended economic decline from 2014-2015 where is actually saw its GDP decline by 3.7% in 2015. This is significant. We do note today that the when the stock markets declined by over 1%, the price of oil declined by 2% and the ruble declined by 2% also. So……what happens if the decline continues? The Russian GDP grew by only 1.2% in 2019. The next Russian election is in 2024, so they have some time to ride out any problems, but as they are busy changing the constitution into who knows what; then if we actually do see a significant decline in the Russian economy over an extended time, then the elections, or even internal stability, could become an issue.

Ukraine and sanctions and such: Not unrelated to the Russian economic problems are the sanctions imposed by the U.S. and European as a result of its actions in Ukraine, including the seizure of Crimea. This have been an issue since then, both in Russia and in U.S. politics. Needless to say, if the Russian economy declines, these issues will remain at the forefront.

Iran and Iraq: Cannot help but notice that Iran has a lot of internal turmoil and unrest, in addition to occasional head-to-head confrontations with the U.S. The Iranian economy is also heavily tied to the price of oil. Nothing fuels a protest movement like a declining economy. One could also say the same of Iraq. Of course, we have troops in Iraq.

Plague?

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This is far from my area of expertise, but I am following the spread of the Coronavirus with concern. It has already killed over 50 80 106 people in China, forced them to shut down a city of 11 million people (Wuhan); and now there are three five cases in the U.S., three in France, almost 2,000 more than 2,700 confirmed cases in China (more than 4,500 on Tuesday, 28 Jan.), more than 40 confirmed cases outside of China in 13 places (more than 70 confirmed cases in 17 places on Tuesday, 28 Jan.). They say nearly 60 million people in China are on partial or full lock down in multiple cities. What we know

This is tragic but the worse may yet to come. The human toll is going to tragically get worse. The virus apparently can spread before symptoms show. One wonders how bad it is going to be before it is contained.

There could also be a significant economic cost. Considering that nearly 60 million people are on partial or full lock down….what does this do to production and work? As the virus spread, what is the economic cost? One can envision a scenario where Chinese economy stalls or declines and there is criticism of the government response (which is almost inevitable if this continues to expand). Does this created additional unrest or internal problems in China? Does this further impact the Chinese economy? Would a decline of the Chinese economy (which is 16% of the world economy) result in a stalling or decline of many other economies in the world? One could spin out a downward scenario here.

Don’t want to be alarmist, but this does concern me. We have not had a major world-wide “plague”  since the Spanish flu epidemic of 1918-1920. According to some accounts it affected up to 500 million people and killed 50 million or more. More recently was SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) from 2002-2004. This came out of China, transferred to humans from bats in Yunnan province. It produced 8,098 documented cases resulting in 774 deaths in 17 countries. It was completely contained and no new cases have been reported since 2004. There has also been MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) or the “Camel flu” from 2012 to the present which has affected almost 2,000 people with a mortality rate of 36% among those diagnosed! It was not just confined to the Middle East with an outbreak in South Korea in 2015 that killed 36. There may be a large number of milder undiagnosed cases. This disease is still not contained.

The Coronavirus will hopefully be contained soon like SARS was, but the scenarios are frightening if it is not.

 

 

P.S. In the news Monday morning: Dow falls more than 400 points as the coronavirus outbreak worsens

 

Is this my last Kursk book?

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The Aces at Kursk book may be my last Kursk book I will do for a while, depending on demand. From my original mega-book I have prepared two books, The Battle of Prokhorovka and Aces at Kursk. From the original book I can prepare two more books: The Battle of Tolstoye Woods and The Belgorod Offensive. These four books would effectively complete the serialization of my original book. I could also create one additional book, which would be a 300-page book for a more general audience addressing the entire battle in the south.

Also in my files are the German and Soviet research materials and draft texts to produce two or three others books covering the Soviet offensive to take Kharkov in February 1943, the German counteroffensive to retake Kharkov in March 1943 and the Soviet offensive to take Kharkov in August 1943. As part of our urban warfare work, we pulled up the unit records for both sides for the three battles in and around Kharkov in 1943. The fighting in February and March of 1943 was the fighting that immediately preceded the Battle of Kursk. They are probably best covered in a single book. The fighting in August 1943 is a continuation of the Battle of Kursk and is considered part of the Battle of Kursk by Soviet historians.

This would potentially allow for a series of six to eight books covering most of the fighting on the Russian Front in the south from February to August 1943. But I am not sure whether I should do that or move onto other projects. Right now, leaning towards moving onto other projects.

Size of Fleets around the South China Sea, Part 2

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So, China has 2 carriers, 36 destroyers, 52 frigates and 67 subs (SSN and SSK) to enforce it’s claims to the South China sea. All the nations that have competing claims (Taiwan, Philippines, Indonesia, Brunei, Malaysia and Vietnam) have a total of 4 destroyers, 43 frigates and 17 subs (SSK). This is not an even match. But, there are a few other players in the immediate region and there are a few other players in the Pacific that may have some influence. Lets look at them:

Also in the area are the following countries:

…………………….Singapore…..Thailand…..Cambodia

Small carrier………………………….1

Destroyers……….0
Frigates……………6………………..7

Corvettes…………6…………………7

Littoral……………..8

Submarines……..4………………….1

Patrol vessels…..2………………….8

Patrol ships…………………………22……………..21

Patrol boats…………………………23

LPD………………..4………………..1

LST……………………………………2

LCU…………………………………..9………………1

Mine Sweeper…..4………………….5

Others……………3………………….5

Auxilleries…………………………..17

Riverine Patrol Boats…………….189

 

Not connected to the South China Sea, but close enough to get our attention are the following:

………………………….S. Korea……N. Korea…..Japan…..Australia….New Zealand

Helicopter carriers……1……………………………….4……………2

Cruisers…………………………………………………..8

Destroyers…………….12………………………………22…………..2
Frigates………………..11…………….3………………10…………..8…………….2

Corvettes……………..12…………….14………………6
Submarines…………..18…………….70……………..20…………..6

Patrol vessels………….0……………………………………………………………..2

Patrol ships…………..71……………………………….13………………………….2

Missiles boats…………………………30

Torpedo boats……………………….247

Patrol boats…………………………..191……………….6…………..2

LSD……………………………………………………………………….1

LST……………………..8…………………………………3

Other Amphib………….5………………………………..2………………………….1

Mine warfare………….11……………30………………26…………..6

Other……………………2………………………………..8…………..7…………….1

Auxiliary……………….20……………………………….21………….2

 

Needless to say, in an extreme emergency (which would probably involve the U.S.) we would probably expect Japan, Australia, South Korea and Taiwan to cooperate. This is a total of 7 carriers, 8 cruisers, 40 destroyers, 51 frigates and 48 submarines compared to China’s 2 carriers, 36 destroyers, 52 frigates and 67 subs (SSN and SSK)

 

Finally there is the Russian Navy, which has 1 carrier, 2 battle cruisers, 11 destroyers, 10 frigates and around 45 submarines (SSGN, SSN and SSK), although not all will be in the Pacific. Then there is the United States which has 11 carriers, 9 amphibious carriers, 22 cruisers, 69 destroyers, 20 Littoral Combat Ships and 52 submarines (SSGN and SSN). Not all of these will be it the Pacific either. Details are here:

U.S. Navy Compared to Russian Navy

 

The Size of Fleets in the South China Sea, Part 1

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These has been a little rumbling lately in the news about Malaysia and Vietnam asserting their territorial rights in the South China Sea. Of course, part of the area they asserting is part of their 200 mile economic exclusion zone happens to be territory that Red China also claims. These are not the only countries that have such conflicts. Bordering the South China Sea is China, Taiwan, Philippines, Indonesia, Brunei, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam. There countries with competing claims are China, Taiwan, Philippines, Indonesia, Brunei, Malaysia and Vietnam. Let us look at their naval assets for a moment.

China has the largest navy in the region. Their fleet (the People’s Liberation Army Navy) consists of:

2 new carriers – 54,500 to 58.600 tons (one commissioned in 2019)

36 Destroyers – 3,670 to 12,000 tons

52 Frigates – 2,000 to 4,200 tons

42 Corvettes – 1,400 tons

109 Missile boats – 170 to 520 tons

94 Submarine chasers

17 gunboats

20 mine countermeasures vessels – 400 to 1,200 tons

6 Amphibious transport docks (LPD) – 25,000 tons

1 Mobile Landing Platform

32 Landing Ship Tanks (LST) – 4,170 to 4,800 tons

31 Landing Ship medium (LSM) – 800 to 2,000 tons

7 Ballistic Missile Submarines (SSBN) – 8,000 to 11,500 tons

12 Nuclear attack Submarines (SSN) – 5,500 to 7,000 tons

55 Attack submarines (SSK) – 2,110 to 4,000 tons

The fleet also includes a 12 replenishment oilers and 232 various auxiliaries. The fleet is definitely growing and will have a third carrier around 2022.

The other countries have:

…………………….Taiwan……Philippines…..Indonesia….Brunei….Malaysia….Vietnam
Destroyers………..4
Frigates…………..22…………..(2)……………..8…………………………..6……………..9

Corvettes………….1…………….1…………….10…………………………..6……………14
Subs (SSK)………4……………..0……………..5……………………………2……………..6

ASW Corvettes…………………………………14

Patrol Vessel……………………11………………………………4…………..8

Patrol ships……….12…………..7……………37……………..9…………..8

Missile boats……..31………………………….15……………………………8

Mine sweepers….10………………………….12…………………………….4……………..8

Patrol boats……………………58…………..104……………23………….17……………54?

LSD…………………..1………….2……………..5

LST…………………..2………….5…………….12

LSM………………………………………………12…………………………………………..6?

Auxiliaries…………..5……….13………………42…………………………..14…………..12

 

The Taiwanese corvette is 567 tons, their patrol ships are 580 tons, their missile boats are 171 tonnes. The small Philippine fleet will get two frigates (2,600 tons) in 2020. Their corvette is 1,200 tons. Their offshore patrol vessels range from 712 to 3,250 tons. The patrol ships range from 140 to 357 tons, their patrol and missile boats are all less than 60 tons. The Indonesian ASW Corvettes 950 tons, East German built (we have a piano from East Germany).

There are some other countries on the periphery of this conflict, like Singapore, Thailand and Cambodia. We will address them in a subsequent post.

Looking for a publisher for Aces at Kursk

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I do have a completed book of around 400 pages called Aces at Kursk: The Belgorod Offensive Air War.  It is a book about the actual air battles, as opposed to yet another picture book. The air battles at Kursk were larger than the Battle of Britain, yet there is not a single comprehensive book addressing it.

I have contacted a number of publishers and am still waiting for a response from some of them. A couple of them made a counter offer than I do picture book. But, it is probably time to go out and look for other publishers. If someone knows a publisher that this book is a particularly good fit for please let me know. If a publisher has a strong interest in this book, please contact me directly.

Thanks

Aces at Kursk – Chapters

Aces at Kursk – Summation

Accidently Downing Airliners

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Iran has admitted that an Iranian air defense system downed the Ukrainian airliner yesterday. Sadly, this is becoming an all too common occurrence. The major incidents like this include:

Ukrainian Airlines, 8 January 2020 – It was shot down by an Iranian missile (picture shown above). 176 people killed.

Malaysian Flight MH-17, 17 July 2014 – Shot down by a Russian air defense missile. Russian claims the Ukrainians shot it down, but not too many people outside of Russia believe this. 296 people killed.

Siberia Airlines Flight 1812, 4 October 2001 — A Russian airliner shot down over the Black Sea by Ukrainian air defense missile while conducting training exercise. 78 people killed.

Iran Air Flight 655, 3 July 1988 — An Iranian airliner going from Iran to Saudi Arabia was shot down by a missile from the USS Vincennes. Even though it was an accident, many in Iran still claim it was deliberate. The Iranian newspaper Tehran Times recently published a letter asking Captain Rogers, the former CO of the Vincennes, to “confess.” 290 people killed.

Korea Air Lines Flight 007, 1 September 1983 — Shot down by the Soviet Union. In this case, the plane made a navigation error and wandered into Soviet air space. The intercepting Soviet pilots had sight of the plane and were still ordered to shot it down. 269 people killed, including a U.S. congressman.

There are a lot more incidents than those. Just to list some of them (I do not know if this list is exhaustive):

 

Date……………Incident…………Plane…..Locale……………Killed….Perpetrator

24 Aug 1938…..Kweilin Incident…DC-2……near Hong Kong…..14….Japan aircraft

14 June 1940….Kaleva…………..Ju-52……Baltic Sea……………9….USSR DB-3T

29 Oct 1940……Chungking………DC-2……China………………..9…..Japan aircraft

3 March 1942….KNILM PK-AFV…DC-3……Australia…………….4….Japan A6M Zero

1 June 1943……BOAC Flt 777…..DC-3……Bay of Biscay……..17….German Ju-88C-6

22 Oct 1943……AB Aero…………DC-3……Sweden…………….13…German Ju-88

 

23 July 1954……Cathy Pacific…….DC-4……Hainan Island……10……Chinese La-11

27 July 1955……El Al Flight 402….L-149…..Bulgaria……………58…..Bulgaria MIG-15

 

30 June 1962….Aeroflot Flt 902….Tu-104A..Russia…………….84…..USSR missile

21 Feb 1973……Libyan Flt 114……727………Sinai……………108…..Israeli F-4s

 

20 April 1978….Korean Flt 902…..707……..Russia……………….2…….USSR Su-15

3 Sep 1978……Rhodesia 825…Viscount….Rhodesia…………..48…….ZIPRA Strela-2

12 Feb 1978….Rhodesia 827….Viscount…Rhodesia…………..59…….ZIPRA Strela-2

27 June 1980…Itavia Flt 870…….DC-9…….Italy………………..81…….Missile?

8 Feb 1980…….Angola D2-TYC…Yak-40…Angola……………..19……..Zambian J-6

1 Sep 1983……Korean Flt 007…..747………USSR……………269…….USSR Su-15

 

24 Feb 1985….Polar 3……………Do-228…..West Sahara……..3………Polisario

4 Sep 1985……Bakhtar YA-BAM..An-26……Afghanistan……..52………SAM

11 June 1987…Bakhtar YA-BAL…An-26…..Afghanistan………53………SAM

14 Oct 1987……Zimex…………….L-100…..Angola……………..8………unknown

6 Nov 1987…….Air Malawi……….Skyvan….Mozambique…….10………?

3 July 1988…….Iran Air 655………A300……Persian Gulf……290……..U.S. RIM-66

 

8 Dec 1988……US AID………….DC-7………W. Sahara………5……Polisario

27 March 1992…………………….Yak-40…….Armenia………..0……Azerbaijan Su-25

21 Sep 1993….Transair…………Tu-134……..Georgia………..27…..Abkhazia Strela 2

22 Sep 1993….Transair…………Tu-154……..Georgia………108…..Abkhazia SAM

23 Sep 1993….Transair…………Tu-134A……Georgia………..1..Abkhazia BM-21 Grad

6 April 1994………………………..Falcon 50….Rwanda……….12……SAM

29 Sep 1998….Lionair 602…….An-24RV……Sri Lanka…….55..Tamil Tiger MANPADS

20 April 2001………………..Cessna A185E…Peru…………….2…Peru Cessna A-37B

4 Oct 2001……Siberian 1812…Tu-154………Black Sea…….78…….Ukrainian S-200

22 Nov 2003…DHL OO-DLL….A300………..Iraq……………….0…….SAM

9 Jan 2007………………………….An-26……….Iraq………….34…Islamic Army missile?

23 Mar 2007…TransAVIA……..Il-76…………Somalia………….11…..Hizbul Islam 9K38?

17 July 2014…Malaysia MH-17…777……….Ukraine………..298..Russian 9M38 SA-11

8 Jan 2020…..Ukraine Flt 752….737………..Iran…………….176….Iran SA-15

 

Now….between 1938-1983 (45 years) there were 16 incidents resulting on the loss of 804 lives. Of these, 12 were caused by hostile aircraft (some firing air-to-air missiles), three by surface-to-air missiles and one possibly by an errant air-to-air missile. Two of the airliners shot down by missiles were clearly accidental. From 1985 to 2020 (45 years) there were 20 incidents resulting in the loss of 1,223 lives. Of these, two were caused by aircraft and 14 caused by surface-to-air missiles.