Monthly Archives: March 2021

Coronavirus in the DC area – weekly update 52

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Colorized picture from California, 1918. Source: reddit

Well, I have been providing updates for the DC area for a year now. I originally started tracking and discussing the virus back in January 2020. And then, as everyone else finally picked up that this was going to be a problem and started reporting on it, I decided in April to focus on local tracking. Because of the geographic nature of the DC area (parts of Virginia, parts of Maryland and DC), I could not find a nice summary for the area. It also personally affects me (and which is why I am reporting on university towns in Virginia and beach areas in North Carolina). 

Anyhow, here is my original post on the virus: Plague? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

And here is my original DC area post from a year ago: Coronavirus in the DC area | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Back then (1 April 2020) we were looking at 1,941 reported cases and 23 reported deaths. Now we are up to 371,256 reported cases and 6,250 reported deaths. It has not been well handled.

Back to the present, the number of cases from coronavirus is higher than it was last week. This is weekly update number 52 on the coronavirus in the DC area.

This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 6,914 new cases. There were 4,811 new cases last week. Ten weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases. Twenty-one weeks ago there were only 4,256 new cases.

Almost all of Europe is still struggling with controlling the spread of the disease. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, is still struggling with 16K new cases reported for yesterday. The UK is actually bringing it under control with 4K yesterday, the same as last week. Its high was 68K new cases on 8 January. France now has reported more cases of Coronavirus than the UK. Their death count of 95,495 (population 67.4 million) is the seventh highest reported deaths in the world (behind U.S., Brazil, India, UK, Italy and Russia). Still, it is less than the UK with 126,955 dead in a population of 66.8 million or Italy with 108,879 deaths in a population of 60.3 million. Yesterday they reported for France (31K), Spain (5K), Germany (24K) and Russia (8K). The U.S. (population 331.4 million), which has never gotten the virus under control, had 61K new cases yesterday. This is higher than the last the last four weeks (53K, 54K, 55K and 57K) but an improvement from the high of 300K new cases on 2 January. This is in contrast to places like China (18 cases), Japan (2,141), South Korea (506), Taiwan (1), Vietnam (3 on 3/29), Singapore (26), Australia (8) and New Zealand (2).

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 cases thirty-nine weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 11:25 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….43,488…..44,513…….1,064
Arlington, VA……………..237,521..….13,915……14,227……….246
Alexandria VA……………160,530……10,784……10,940.,…….128
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.…..70,096……71,411…….1,040
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.………378………386……..……9
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574..………509…..…..522……..…18
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850……24,659……25,251…..….269

Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011……41,153……41,934………468
Manassas…………………..41,641..…….4,120……..4,159……,…45
Manassas Park………….…17,307….…..1,153……..1,169…….…12

Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……..9,970……10,150………..69
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144…….1,844……..1,879…….…22
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……65,686……66,704…..1,472
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……76,587……78,011…..1,388
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…..364,342….371,256.…6,250

 

This is a 2% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 1.68%. This last week there were 53 new fatalities reported out of 6,914 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 0.77%. The population known to have been infected is 6.92% or one confirmed case for every 14 people. The actual rate of infection may be higher, perhaps as much as four times higher. I don’t have a good report of how many people have been vaccinated in this DC area, but I gather at least 20% have had their first shot. So we are looking at 40-50% of the DC area having either been infected or vaccinated.

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville. Liberty University (LU) at Lynchburg and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Most of them were emptied out due to Thanksgiving and the Christmas holidays. Most of these universities went back in session in mid-January, except for UVA, which started its sessions at the beginning of February. I do not report on places like William and Mary (W&M) and VCU as they are located in or near major population centers.

Harrisonburg, VA (pop. 54K) is reporting 6,166 cases (5,961 last week) and 95 deaths (up 24 in the last five weeks), while Rockingham County (pop. 81K), where the town resides, is reporting 6,347 cases (6,187 last week) and 103 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located.

Charlottesville, VA (pop. 47K) has reported 3,834 cases (3,771 last week) and 53 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA (pop. 109K), where the town resides, has reported 5,275 cases (5,176 last week) and 77 deaths (up 29 in the last five weeks). This is where UVA is located.

For UVA (https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker), after peaking at 229 new cases on 2/16, they had imposed new restrictions. The number of cases dropped precipitously and they partially eased up the restrictions. This Monday (3/29) there were 9 new cases. It does show what can be done with quick reaction and actual lock-down procedures.

Lynchburg (pop. 82K), the home of Liberty University, has reported 7,196 cases (7,056 last week) cases and 140 deaths (80 deaths these in the last ten weeks).

Further south, Montgomery County, VA (pop. 99K) has reported 8,780 cases (8,642 last week) and 86 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

I do report the population, number of cases and number of deaths for each of these areas. This is because this is somewhat of a “laboratory-like” situation where you have four universities of 23K to 36K students located in rural areas of around 100K population. They do have different rates per capita in cases and in deaths.  

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 1,432 new cases yesterday. Last week it as 1,267 cases. Nine weeks ago it was 4,707. For a long time, it pretty much ran 1,000 cases a day, neither going up or going down.

Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has 1,987 cases (1,948 last week) and 8 deaths.

Oktyabrskii Map for the game Prokhorovka!

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As I have mentioned before, I am preparing a little write-up for the Italian wargame company Advancing Fire for their game Prokhorovka! (PROKHOROVKA! (advancingfire.com). They are designing a set of scenarios for use in the game Advanced Squad Leader (ASL). They have been providing me with some of their advance material, although I am not involved in the design of the game.

They are drawing their ASL maps from German aerial photographs of the battlefield. The game map covers the area around Oktyabrskii State Farm and height 252.2, part of the tank fields of Prokhorovka. The road to Prokhorovka runs down the right edge of the map. One the previous map, Storozhevoye, is some 3 1/2 kilometers south of height 252.2. This is an aerial photograph of Oktyabrskii State Farm.

The link to their game board is below. Just click on it and the game board should appear.

PROKHOROVKA! – Tank Fields BOARD

The road running down the right edge of the board it the road to Prokhorovka, heading northeast. Also worth looking at is the 1:50000 scale map M 37-26C in my Kursk and Prokhorovka books. The area is mostly in between the grid lines 35 and 37 and 55 to 58 (six square kilometers).

Now, I have looked their work, but I am hardly the right person to conduct photo analysis. Still, it looked pretty good to me. If anyone has any comments, criticisms, recommendations, corrections, edits, and so forth for this map, please let me know. I will forward the comments to them.

Now, I never walked the ground right around Oktyabrskii Sovkhoz. It was still a working farm when I first toured the battlefield in 1995. But you could see it from height 252.2.

Thanks.

Other Photos:

OSF building (1)

And a photo from my books:

Other references:

Advancing Fire

PROKHOROVKA! (advancingfire.com)

Did the LSSAH have 3 panzer panzer companies, 4 panzer companies or two panzer battalions in July 1943? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Coronavirus in the DC area – weekly update 51

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Colorized picture from California, 1918. Source: reddit

In general the number of cases from coronavirus remains the same as it was last week. It is still high and needs to come down further. This is weekly update number 51 on the coronavirus in the DC area.

This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 4,811 new cases. There were 5,549 new cases last week. Nine weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases. Twenty weeks ago there were only 4,256 new cases.

Almost all of Europe is still struggling with controlling the spread of the disease. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, is still struggling with 29K new cases reported for yesterday, an increase from last week. The UK is actually bringing it under control for a change with 5K yesterday, the same as last week. Its high was 68K new cases on 8 January. France now has reported more cases of Coronavirus than the UK, although their death count of 93,065 (population 67.4 million) is less than the UK with 126,523 dead in a population of 66.8 million. Yesterday they reported for France (15K), Spain (6K), Germany (21K) and Russia (8K). The U.S. (population 331.4 million), which has never gotten the virus under control, had 53K new cases yesterday. This is about the same as the last three weeks (54K, 55K and 57K) but an improvement from the high of 300K new cases on 2 January. This is in contrast to places like China (22 cases), Japan (1,517), South Korea (425), Taiwan (5 on 3/15), Vietnam (3 on 3/22), Singapore (13), Australia (10) and New Zealand (8).

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 cases thirty-eight weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 9:26 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….42,730…..43,488……..1,051
Arlington, VA……………..237,521..….13,729…..13,915………..243
Alexandria VA……………160,530……10,643…..10,784……….128
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.…..69,041…..70,096…….1,034
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.………370………378…………10
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574..………507………509…………17
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850……24,197….24,659……….263

Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011…….40,625….41,153…….…467
Manassas…………………..41,641..……..4,089……4,120…………45
Manassas Park………….…17,307….……1,145……1,153……..…12

Stafford Country, VA……..149,960………9,858……9,970……..…68
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144……..1,825…..1,844……..…22
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……65,053….65,686……1,461
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……75,719….76,587……1,376
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…..359,531…364,342……6,197

 

This is a 1% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 1.70%. This last week there were 28 new fatalities reported out of 4,811 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 0.58%. A couple of municipalities dropped their count of deaths this week. The population known to have been infected is 6.79% or one confirmed case for every 15 people. The actual rate of infection may be higher, perhaps as much as four times higher. I don’t have a good report of how many people have been vaccinated in this DC area, but I gather at least 20% have had their first shot. So we are looking at 40-50% of the DC area having either been infected or vaccinated.

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville. Liberty University (LU) at Lynchburg and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Most of them were emptied out due to Thanksgiving and the Christmas holidays. Most of these universities went back in session in mid-January, except for UVA, which started its sessions at the beginning of February. I do not report on places like William and Mary (W&M) and VCU as they are located in or near major population centers.

Harrisonburg, VA (pop. 54K) is reporting 6,077 cases (5,961 last week) and 95 deaths (up 24 in the last four weeks), while Rockingham County (pop. 81K), where the town resides, is reporting 6,280 cases (6,187 last week) and 102 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located.

Charlottesville, VA (pop. 47K) has reported 3,771 cases (3,738 last week) and 53 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA (pop. 109K), where the town resides, has reported 5,176 cases (5,081 last week) and 76 deaths (up 28 in the last four weeks). This is where UVA is located.

For UVA (https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker), after peaking at 229 new cases on 2/16, they had imposed new restrictions. The number of cases dropped precipitously and they partially eased up the restrictions. This Monday (3/22) there were 11 new cases. It does show what can be done with quick reaction and actual lock-down procedures.

Lynchburg (pop. 82K), the home of Liberty University, has reported 7,056 cases (6,986 last week) cases and 141 deaths (81 deaths these in the last nine weeks).

Further south, Montgomery County, VA (pop. 99K) has reported 8,642 cases (8,460 last week) and 86 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Note I to report the population, number of cases and number of deaths for each of these areas. This is because this is somewhat of a “laboratory-like” situation where you have four universities of 23K to 36K students located in rural areas of around 100K population. They do have different rates per capita in cases and in deaths.  

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 1,267 new cases yesterday. Last week it as 1,276 cases. Eight weeks ago it was 4,707. For a long time, it pretty much ran 1,000 cases a day, neither going up or going down.

Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has 1,948 cases (1,906 last week) and 8 deaths.

St. Mary’s Fort found

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News article this morning that caught my attention. They have finally found the location of St. Mary’s Fort, near St. Mary’s City in Maryland. 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/tripideas/after-nearly-century-long-search-archaeologists-find-maryland-s-1st-european-settlement/ar-BB1eSA9E?ocid=msedgntp

This was the fourth English colony consisting of around 150 people and established in 1634, in what became the United States of America. It was a Catholic colony (which is not mentioned in the article). I have referenced the Battle of Severn (1655) before in recent posts: Baltimore was the seat of the first Catholic bishop in the U.S. in 1789. Georgetown University was the first Catholic University in the United States, founded in 1789 in what was then Maryland (now Washington, D.C.). Today (2014 survey) Maryland is 15% Catholic.

Religion in the U.S. over Time | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

A List of Killed and Wounded SS Panzer Officers, July 1943

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There are some daily medical reports in the files that I have (T354, R605, the II SS Pz Corps). Sometimes they provide a list of names and the units they are with. Sometimes this list is readable. Let me list the ones that are clearly reported with an SS panzer regiment up through 28 July 1943. An examination of the originals (which are in Freiburg) might add some more names.

Date         Status        Rank         Name          Unit

4.7-5.7      Wounded  SS-Ustuf.   Wittman     Zugf. Pz. Rgt./LSSAH

7.7-8.7      Killed         SS-Ostuf.  Pense         9. Pz. Kp. S-DR

12.7-13.7  Wounded  SS-Ustuf.  v. Kleist       3./Pz.Rgt SS-T

12.7-13.7  Wounded  SS-Ustuf.  Schwieger  6./Pz.Rgt. SS-T 

12.7-13.7  Wounded  SS-Ustuf.  Koerner       NZ I/Pz.Rgt. SS-T

15.7-16.7  Killed        SS-Ustuf.  Weisenhelter  II./Pz.Rgt. SS-DR

15.7-16.7  Killed        SS-Ustuf.  Envelka       5./Pz.Rgt. SS-DR

19.7-20.7  Killed        SS-Ustuf.  Koehler       Pz.Regt. 3  SS-T

19.7-20.7  Killed        SS-Ustuf.  Schroeder   Pz. Rgt. 3 SS-T

 

Because of the poor quality of my copies, please do not take the list as definitive or correct. It is illustrative of the data that is available. An examination of the personnel files in Berlin, as Nikals Zetterling has suggested, may be far more productive.

 

Translations:

SS-Ustuf: is Untersturmfuehrer or a “junior assault leader” or the equivalent to a second lieutenant.

SS-Ostuf is Obersturmfuehrer or a “senior assault leader” or the equivalent to a first lieutenant.

 

This post is done is response to Niklas Zetterling’s comments on this blog post: Summation of Argument on LSSAH PzRgt Organization in July 1943 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Some Statistics on Afghanistan (March 2021)

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I have not blogged much recently about Afghanistan, although we seem to be reaching a decision point as to what to do with the peace deal negotiated with the Taliban by the previous president that called for the removal of all U.S. troops from there by 1 May.

The country has been in open warfare much of the time since 1979. The latest quarterly report on Afghanistan from the United Nations Secretary General is now available. These are always worth looking at as they appear to have less “spin” then many other reports:

https://unama.unmissions.org/secretary-general-reports

The report was posted 18 March. It is dated 12 March.

  1. “The United States reduced it forces in Afghanistan to 2,500 as of the mid-January 2021.” That said, there are also these reports that say we actually have 3,500 there:
    1. U.S. Has 1,000 More Troops in Afghanistan Than it Disclosed
    2. Our troop strength there was around 13,000 a year ago.
    3. There are also around 7,000 NATO and other allied troops in Afghanistan.
  2. “The security situation worsened in 2020, during with the United Nations recorded 25,180 security-related incidents, a 10 percent increase from the 22,832 incidents recorded in 2019.” 
    1. See chart below.
    2. “…the number of armed clashes increased…from 13,155 in 2019 to 15,581 in 2020.”
    3. “…the number of detonations caused by improved explosive devices [IEDs] rose…from 1,949 in 2019 to 2,572 in 2020.”
    4. “…assassinations…from 782 in 2019 to 993 in 2020″. 
    5. “The United Nations recorded 7,138 security-related incidents between 13 November and 11 February, a 46.7 per cent increase compared wit the same period in 2020 and contrasting with traditionally lower numbers during the winter season.
      1. “…armed classes accounted for 63.6 per cent of all incidents.
      2. “Anti-government elements initiated 85.7 per cent of all security-related incidents, including 92.1 per cent of armed clashes.”
  3. “…the number of airstrikes declined…in 2020…from 1,663 in 2019 to 938 in 2020. 
  4. “UNAMA documented 8,820 civilian casualties (3,035 killed, including 390 women and 760 children; and 5,785 injured, including 756 women and 1,859 children) in 2020.” 
    1. This represents a 15 percent decrease compared with 2019, mainly because of fewer civilian casualties from suicide [bombings], from complex attacks carried out by anti-government elements and from air strikes by international military forces.”
    2. “However, UNAMA documented increases in civilian casualties from targeted killings by anti-government elements, Taliban pressure-plate improvised explosive devices, and Afghan Air Force air strikes.”
    3. “In the last quarter of 2020, UNAMA documented a 45 perc ent increase in civilian casualties compared with the same period in 2019.”
    4. “In 2020, the majority of civilian casualties were caused by anti-government elements (62 percent), mainly by the Taliban (45 per cent), ISIL-K (8 per cent) and undetermined anti-government elements (9 percent).”
    5. “A quarter of all civilian casualties were attributed to pro-government forces, mostly caused by Afghan national security forces (22 per cent), followed by international military forces, pro-government armed groups, and undetermined or multiple pro-government forces.”
    6. “Ground engagements were the leading incident type causing the most civilian casualties (36 percent), followed by suicide and non-suicide improvised explosive devices (34 per cent), targeted killings (14 per cent) and air strikes (8 per cent).

 

              Security           Incidences      Civilian

Year      Incidences       Per Month       Deaths

2008        8,893                  741

2009      11,524                  960

2010      19,403               1,617

2011      22,903               1,909

2012      18,441?             1,537?                             *

2013      20,093               1,674               2,959

2014      22,051               1,838               3,699

2015      22,634               1,886               3,545

2016      23,712               1,976               3,498

2017      23,744               1,979               3,438

2018      22,478               1,873               3,804

2019      22,832               1,903               3,403

2020      25,180               2,098               3,035

 

Now, on 29 February 2020 in Doha the United States and the Taliban signed an agreement to reduce the number of U.S. forces from 13,000 to 8,600 troops in 135 days with a proportional reduction in the number of coalition forces. It is to be followed by the drawdown of all international forces within another nine and half months. The U.S. is now down to 2,500-3,500 troops. This is subject to the Taliban fulfilling their commitments under the agreement. There is still no agreement between the current government of Afghanistan and the Taliban.

Storozhevoye Map for the game Prokhorovka!

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As I have mentioned before, I am preparing a little write-up for the Italian wargame company Advancing Fire for their game Prokhorovka! (PROKHOROVKA! (advancingfire.com). They are designing a set of scenarios for use in the game Advanced Squad Leader (ASL). They have been providing me with some of their advance material, although I am not involved in the design of the game.

They are drawing their ASL maps from German aerial photographs of the battlefield. This is is one of the aerial photographs they are using. It is of the area Storozhevoye, some 3 1/2 kilometers south of height 252.2.

The link to their game board is below. Just click on it and the game board should appear.

PROKHOROVKA! – Storozhevoje BOARD – VERSION 23-1-21

It helps to spin the image 90 degrees to the right to match it up with the aerial photograph. Also worth looking at is the 1:50000 scale map M 37-38A in my Kursk and Prokhorovka books. The area is mostly in between the grid lines 35 and 36 and 51 to 53 (two square kilometers).

Now, I have looked their work, but I am hardly the right person to conduct photo analysis. Still, it looked pretty good to me. If anyone has any comments, criticisms, recommendations, corrections, edits, and so forth for this map, please let me know. I will forward the comments to them.

Thanks.

 

Other references:

Advancing Fire

PROKHOROVKA! (advancingfire.com)

Did the LSSAH have 3 panzer panzer companies, 4 panzer companies or two panzer battalions in July 1943? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Coronavirus in the DC area – weekly update 50

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Colorized picture from California, 1918. Source: reddit

In general the number of cases from coronavirus remains the same as it was last week. It is still high and needs to come down further. This is weekly update number 50 on the coronavirus in the DC area.

This week the D.C area (pop. 5.4 million) increased by 5,549 new cases. There were 5,774 new cases last week. Eight weeks ago it was 18,934 new cases. Nineteen weeks ago there were only 4,256 new cases.

Almost all of Europe is still struggling with controlling the spread of the disease. Italy (pop. 60.3 million), the original epicenter of the European outbreak, is still struggling with 20K new cases reported for yesterday, the same as last week. The UK is actually bringing it under control for a change (5K yesterday). Its high was 68K new cases on 8 January. Yesterday they reported for France (36K), Spain (5K), Germany (18K) and Russia (9K). The U.S., which has never gotten the virus under control, had 54K new cases yesterday. This is about the same as last two weeks (55K and 57K) but an improvement from the high of 300K new cases on 2 January. This is in contrast to places like China (22 cases), Japan (1,142), South Korea (469), Taiwan (5 on 3/15), Vietnam (3), Singapore (11), Australia (17) and New Zealand (2).

The number of reported cases in the DC area was hovering around 8,000 to 9,500 a week for several months, then declined to a low of 2,406 cases thirty-seven weeks ago. It has since increased. All the data is from the Johns Hopkin’s website as of 12:25 AM: Johns Hopkins CSSE

……………………..….Population…last week…this week…Deaths
Washington D.C…….…..702,445…….41,910.….42,730…….1,044
Arlington, VA……………..237,521..….13,481……13,729……….243
Alexandria VA……………160,530……10,468……10,643…..….129
Fairfax County, VA…….1,150,795.…..67,945……69,041…….1,040
Falls Church, VA…………..14,772.………360….…….370…………10
Fairfax City, VA……..…..…24,574..………501………..507…………16
Loudoun County, VA….…406,850……23,589……24,197…..….267

Prince Williams C., VA…..468,011…….40,055……40,625………471
Manassas…………………..41,641..……..4,054……..4,089.………44
Manassas Park………….…17,307….…..1,129…..…1,145…….…12

Stafford Country, VA……..149,960……..9,715…..…9,858…….…69
Fredericksburg, VA…………29,144…….1,798……..1,825…….…22
Montgomery C., MD…….1,052,567……64,273……65,053……1,446
Prince Georges C., MD.…..909,308……74,704……75,719…….1,356
Total……….…….….……..5,365,425…..353,982….359,531…….6,169

 

This is a 2% increase since last week. The Mortality Rate for the area is 1.72%. This last week there were 69 new fatalities reported out of 5,549 new cases. This is a mortality rate of 1.24%. The population known to have been infected is 6.70% or one confirmed case for every 15 people. The actual rate of infection may be higher, perhaps as much as four times higher.

Virginia has a number of large universities (23,000 – 36,000 students) located in more rural areas, often tied to a small town. This includes James Madison (JMU) at Harrisonburg, University of Virginia (UVA) at Charlottesville. Liberty University (LU) at Lynchburg and Virginia Tech (VT) at Blacksburg. Most of them were emptied out due to Thanksgiving and the Christmas holidays. Most of these universities went back in session in mid-January, except for UVA, which started its sessions at the beginning of February. I do not report on places like William and Mary (W&M) and VCU as they are located in or near major population centers.

Harrisonburg, VA (pop. 54K) is reporting 5,961 cases (5,822 last week) and 95 deaths (up 24 in the last three weeks), while Rockingham County (pop. 81K), where the town resides, is reporting 6,187 cases (6,135 last week) and 104 deaths. This is where James Madison University is located.

Charlottesville, VA (pop. 47K) has reported 3,738 cases (3,679 last week) and 49 deaths, while Albemarle County, VA (pop. 109K), where the town resides, has reported 5,081 cases (4,979 last week) and 77 deaths (up 29 in the last three weeks). This is where UVA is located.

For UVA (https://returntogrounds.virginia.edu/covid-tracker), after peaking at 229 new cases on 2/16, they had imposed new restrictions. The number of cases dropped precipitously and they partially eased up the restrictions. This Monday (3/15) there were only 3 new cases. It does show what can be done with quick reaction and actual lock-down procedures.

Lynchburg (pop. 82K), the home of Liberty University, has reported 6,986 cases (6,948 last week) cases and 141 deaths (81 deaths these in the last eight weeks).

Further south, Montgomery County, VA (pop. 99K) has reported 8,460 cases (8,133 last week) and 91 deaths. This is where Virginia Tech is located.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) had 1,276 new cases yesterday. Last week it as 1,537 cases. Seven weeks ago it was 4,707. For a long time, it pretty much ran 1,000 cases a day, neither going up or going down.

Dare County, North Carolina (pop. 37K), a beach area in the outer banks, has 1,906 cases (1,878 last week) and 8 deaths.

Wargaming in the U.S. Army

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I was asked recently about wargaming in the U.S. Army, and I kind of punted on the question. I then got a friend of mine to answer it. The wargaming efforts we have been involved in have been primarily for analysis and casualty estimation efforts. We have not been involved in wargaming for training, officer development, or development of planning. Other people have been doing that, I gather with mixed results. Here is two recent articles on the subject that were forwarded to me:

1. Educational and Tactical Use of Wargames with the U.S. Army: https://warroom.armywarcollege.edu/wargaming-room/tactical-edge/

2. Wargaming the Gray Zone:

https://warontherocks.com/2021/03/whispers-from-wargames-about-the-gray-zone/

 

Meanwhile back at the Tank Ditch

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One other statement in the Lehmann account is that “These three [surviving tanks of the 6th panzer company] could fire at the Russians from a distance of ten to thirty meters and make every shell a direct hit because the Russians could not see through the dust and smoke that there were German tanks rolling along with them in the same direction. There were already nineteen Russian tanks standing burning on the battlefield when the Abteilung opened fire for the first time (footnote: “report from von Ribbentrop”).”

So, that account states that 19 Russian tanks were destroyed before the 5th and 7th company opened fire on them. Ribbentrop himself was credited with 14 tanks this day. Now, this could well be an exaggerated tally (and there are many examples of this), but let us take it seriously for a moment.

The attacking force was most of the 32nd Tank Brigade and the 25th Tank Brigade. The 25th Tank Brigade on 1600 11 July reported having 31 T-34s and 36 T-70s ready for action (they report 4 tanks in repair). The 32nd Tank Brigade on 1600 11 July reported having 60 T-34s and 4 T-70s. It is reported that at least 15 T-34s penetrated to the Komsomolets Sovkhoz in the original attack, where they were all destroyed. The 31st Tank Brigade (29 T-34s and 38 T-70s) was in the second echelon of the attack. So the total number of tanks in this initial attack force would have been 131 minus 15 detached = 116. 

The 25th Tank Brigade on 2400 12 July reported that 13 T-34s and 10 T-70s were irretrievably lost, 11 T-34s and 10 T-70s were knocked out or hit mines and 7 T-34s and 4 T-70s were out of action due to technical breakdowns. So out of 67 tanks, 44 combat losses, 11 breakdowns and 12 or so remaining ready-for-action. The brigade was operating on the “other side” of the railroad track, and also probably also encountered the German self-propelled AT guns (Marders).

The 32nd Tank Brigade on 2400 12 July reported that 54 T-34s were either burned, knocked out, or are in need of repair. So at best 6 T-34s and 4 T-70s ready for action. Of those 54 combat losses, we gather at least 15 were lost at Komsomolets Sovkhoz, which is out of the area under discussion here.

If 11 of the 55 losses (20%) of the 25th Tank Brigade were mechanical, then it appears that there were also mechanical breakdowns among the remaining 54 – 15 lost T-34s. A straight line estimate would say 8. So total combat losses in these two tank brigades in an around the tank fields appear to be around 44 + 54 -15 – 8 = 75. Now, if Ribbentrop and company got 19 of them then we are looking at 56 other tanks put out action in combat by either 5th and 7th panzer company, artillery, antitank guns, aircraft, mines (they do specifically mention mines in the Soviet reports), German infantry on height 252.2 (which was also attacked by tanks), German Marders, Soviet aircraft (the 32nd Tank Brigade reports that it was attacked at 1300 by Soviet assault aircraft), or by operations later in the day, etc. So how many of these 56 other lost tanks actually drove into the tank ditch? I am guessing not a lot. 

Added to that, the battle continued throughout the day, and clearly while many of these tanks were lost in the morning attack, some were lost later in the day.

Now, there are some accounts that seem to want to want to have lots of tanks rolling into tank ditches. But between the 6th Panzer Company, the rest of the II Panzer Battalion, the German artillery, German antitank guns, German air, Soviet air, mines, Marders and German infantry… then, who was left to roll into the tank ditch? Certainly not a lot.

Again, the tank ditch story is sometimes overstated. There is probably a reason why Captain Rudolf von Ribbentrop never mentions any Soviet tanks driving into the tank ditch in his account of the action.

 

Other related posts:

Basis of the Tank Ditch Story of 12 July 1943 | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Was the Tank Ditch encountered in the morning, the afternoon, or both? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

The Importance of the Tank Ditch | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Did the LSSAH have 3 panzer panzer companies, 4 panzer companies or two panzer battalions in July 1943? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)

Did II Panzer Battalion LSSAH have 33 tanks on 11 July 1943? | Mystics & Statistics (dupuyinstitute.org)