I'd like to throw something out for discussion here, if I may. The following is a comparison of German recorded figures for captured Red Army personnell with Krivosheev's quarterly figures for Red Army Missing:

Period....Ger cpt.........USSR MIA

Jun41.....112,784 (x)
Jul41.....701,244
Aug41.....678,480 (xx)
Sep41.....989,203
3Q41......2,481,211......1,699,099

Oct41.....1,037,778
Nov41.......291,934
Dec41........75,440
4Q41.....1,405,162..........636,383

Jan42.........44,082
Feb42.........18,428 (*)
Mar42.........37,700
1Q42.........100,210........181,655

Apr42.........29,786
May42.......295,519
Jun42........227,408
2q42.........552,713.........528,455

Jul42.........not known
Aug42........297,825
Sep42........113,727
3Q42..........411552(**)..684,767

Oct42.........52048
Nov42........31907
Dec42........31282
4Q42.......115,237..........120,344

Jan43..........19,091
Feb43.........17,208
Mar43.........33,822
1Q43...........70,121........144,128

Apr43.........7,080
May43........6,820
Jun43..........5,692
2Q43...........19,592..........22,452

Jul43..........53,571
Aug43..........23,454
Sep43..........10,857
3Q43...........87,882........115,714

Oct43.........unreadable
Nov43.........17,627
Dec43.........unavailable
4Q43.......17,627 (***)......85,512

Jan44......16,001
Feb44.....19,319
Mar44......9,255
1Q44.......44,575............52,663

Apr44.......11,311
May44.......18,642
Jun44........2,793
2Q44........32,746...........38,277

x - Figures incomplete - („Einige Meldungen stehen noch aus“
xx - "Teilweise geschätzt"
* - 1 - 20 February only
** - without July
*** - November only

The German figures can be found in the monthly summaries produced for the OKW and the Quartermaster general. The BA-MA files drawn on are RW19/1387-1394, and RW6/542 and 544-547.

1. The first thing to note here is that for most of the periods, the German and Soviet figures are in fair accordance. Typically, the Soviet figures are slightly higher than the German. This may be accounted for by the fact that MIA is a slightly broader category than POWs, and also that not all Soviet POWs were taken by the Germans. Hence, that the Soviet figures are at least somewhat larger is the sort of picture one would expect to see if both sides achieved accurate accounting.

2. It is often noted (f.e. by Krivosheev) that there was a German practice of capturing and counting as POWs far wider groups of personnell than just Red Army servicemen. These figures do not seem to substantiate this assessment AFAICS, at least not as a general practice. It can be argued that this would a phenomenon limited to periods where the Germans were advancing and capturing major population centers, as this was the only citcumstances under which they encountered other types of Soviet citizens than Red army soldiers. But at least the figures from 4q 1942 speak against such an ssumption too.

3. The major outstanding issue these figures leave are the Soviet captured in 1941, where the discrepancy is very, very major: The difference between the German figure and the Soviet one is no less than 1,550,891. Some of the major elements in accounting for them may already be present however.

Firstly, Krivosheev notes that there were roughly 500,000 men who were called up, but were captured by the Germans before they could be taken on strength. If this is correct, there would be half a million POWs not included in Krivosheev's MIA figure.

Secondly, the German documentation itself indicates that the German figures are too high. In the report pertaining to the first Dekade of January 1942, the cumulative total of Soviet POWs has been adjusted downwards by ~500,000 due to "Fehlmeldungen". This adjustment is sometimes quoted in connection with discussion of the calluous treatment of Soviet POWs, and is interpreted as meaning that the Germans simply struck half a million men off their POW counts to cover up the horrenduous mortality rate some. If that is correct, then Krivosheev's MIA figure becomes harder to explain, and the discrepancy between German and Soviet figures larger. Also, the general lack of correspondence between the German and soviet figures at this point (and the general presence of such a correspondence later) does seem to add some credibility to the explanation indicated by the report itself: That the Germans simply were not succeeding in keeping adequate track of the number of POWS they were taking during this period.

In any case, if both of the above is accurate (which must remain tentative) there is still a discrepancy of more than half a million men. It seems hard to avoid the strong suspicion that neither the Soviet MIA figures for 1941 (which is already based to a large extent on estimation) nor the German record-keeping of same are very accurate for this period.

4. Interestingly, there are also rather clear discrepancies during the first quarters of 1942 and 1943 - in both cases in the form of soviet figures that are much higher than the German. For 1942, it may be that the discrepancy can be explained as belated counting of men lost already during the previous quarter, when the German figures are so very much higher than the Soviet. I am however at a loss to explain the 43 figure.

5. It seems possible that these figures may offer some background for a familiar issue in the historiography, namely the frequently alluded to large contrast between POW catches in the summer of 1942 compared to the year before. If one looks at the soviet figures, and takes into consideration that offensive action in 1942 was limited to the southern third of the front, there is not really any such contrast, and certainly the implication that the summer battles in 1942 failed to achieve previously familiar levels of desructiveness does not seem warranted. If however the German commentators from which this assesment has orginated were comparing the POW figures against their own figures from 1941, that conclusion would seem much more reasonable.

5. Finally, does anybody happen to have good (German) data points for the missing months? Especially July 1942.

regards, K.A.

The following statistics come from the book ZHERTVY DVUKH DIKTATUR (Victims of Two Dictatorships), by Pavel Polyan, Moscow, 2002

p. 137-8
Number of Soviet prisoners of war captured by year:
1941 3,355,000
1942 1,653,000
1943 565,000
1944 147,000
1945 34,000
Total 5,754,000

Yes, I also assume the Soviet MIA figures should contain a portion of dead, which is what I refer to in general terms in Pt 1 above - sorry if that was a bit oblique. Of course, that leaves even more to be explained by these '41 figures.

Dallin's figures, considering that they are from 1958, will be German capture figures I take it? His '41 figure matches the originally reported (with 500,000 subtracted. His '43 figure however shows a basic lack of correspondence with the data quoted above - I wonder why, if he has used German capture figures. True, the 43 data above is not complete, but the difference is several hundred thousand men.

regards, K.A.

great stuff and amazing work.

As to Dallin's figures, I have his "German rule in Russia" in my local library.

The figures that Gary Dickson has quoted are from one or several compilations made by Fremde Heere Ost, and individual data points from this source have been referenced in several other works. I will have to look another time into these.

I also remember the figures from Fremde Heere Ost differ from those compiled by other staff branches, notably the general quarter master, e.g. for 1942:
FHO - 1,653,000
GQM - 1,518,000

The estimates of Red Army material losses from these two branches had notable differences, too (based on the figures quoted in the article by H.H. Wilhelm, "Die Prognosen der Abteilung Fremde Heere Ost 1942-45").

As to the question:
----------------------
Finally, does anybody happen to have good (German) data points for the missing months? Especially July 1942.
----------------------
The following figures might help a little:

According to the OKH situation report of 13 August 1942 (War diary OKW, Vol. 2.1, p. 583, also mentioned in the "Germany and the second World War", volume 6, German paperback edition, p. 1069) the number of PoWs captured in the area of army group A during the period 1 July - 10 August is 309,000.

According to a report from Foreign Armies East the figure for all PoWs captured at eastern front in July and August 1942 is 625,000 (Germany and the second World War", volume 6, German paperback edition, p. 1090).

If we trust the FHO figure, we may then assume a total German POW capture figure of ~740,000 for 3q 42, which would be a much closer fit than in the preceding year, but still higher than the Soviet figure.