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Author
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Topic: effects of river crossing
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Mad Dog Senior Member
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posted 06-11-2011 02:01 PM
In the version I have of Numbers, Predictions, War, it states that the effect of a contested river crossing on casualties is not precisely unknown, but casualties for both sides are reduced.Did later versions of QJM or other books have a better understanding of river crossings and their effects on casualties ? Mad Dog
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Chris Lawrence Moderator
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posted 06-20-2011 11:49 AM
Well, the number of cases used for river crossings in NPW was very limited. We have collected more data, but to date, we have not revisited that part of the model. In the TNDM, the river crossing is fundamentally handled the same way.The shoreline vulnerability factors are the exactly the same between the original QJM (as puslished in NPW) and the current TNDM. The TNDM table has be expanded to add "Sha" (casualties for attackers) and "Shd" (casualties for defenders). So for example, crossing a major unfordable river under small arms fire, the attacker casualties are multiplied by 1.5 while the defenders are multiplied by 0.67. Across a major fordable or minor unfordable river the factors are 1.3 and 0.76 respectively. Across Beach the factors are 2.0 and 0.50 respectively. They only appply when "under small arms fire" and do not apply for under light or medium artillery, only the vulnerability factor applies. Note these factors degrade over time...with the note for across beach being that "Applies first day only: second day 1.67; third and subsequent days 1.33 (as long as FEBA is within indicated proximity of shoreline)." The factors for the rivers only apply on the day of the crossing attempt. There are lots of little adjustments like that from the original version of the QJM (as there were multiple changes made to the model after the publication of NPW) and in the TNDM.
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Mad Dog Senior Member
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posted 06-22-2011 09:22 PM
Thanks Chris. I have been trying to get a grasp on this for some time.Mad Dog
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Chris Lawrence Moderator
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posted 06-23-2011 08:08 AM
Well, the main impact is on the Vulnerability Equation. There are two equations in the model, the Vulnerability Equation and the Mobility Equation, that sometimes can have a big impact on the outcomes. Many people forget about them, and think of the model as only a set of factors that are multiplied together. I have an article in the newsletters on the Mobility Equation, but never did one on the Vulnerability Equation. Maybe in the future.[This message has been edited by Chris Lawrence (edited 06-23-2011).]
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