|
Author
|
Topic: Effects of Dispersion
|
Mad Dog
Senior Member
|
posted 12-05-2010 11:43 AM
  
A Dispersion value is supposed to be fixed for a conflict in a time period - for WW2, it is 2750 (Attrition, page 28).When determining the outcome of a battle, or casualties, does the dispersion value stay constant even if you know that the density of forces (men/sq.km.) would calculate a Dispersion factor that is not the default ? For example, if during a WW2 battle you know that the force density was 800 men/sq.km., this would give an effective calculated Dispersion of ~1375. Since OLI values are affected by the dispersion values (OLI = TLI/Dispersion), once could argue that having a high density of forces will increase the OPFOR OLI, which in turn could change the outcome and casualties of the battle. Mad Dog
IP: Logged |
Mad Dog
Senior Member
|
posted 12-05-2010 06:04 PM
Oops, one small correction - in my example, I meant to say "72 men/sq.km" instead of "800 men/sq.km". I accidently read form the WW1 column.Mad Dog
IP: Logged |
Joseph Scott
Senior Member
|
posted 03-04-2012 10:27 PM
As I understand it, QJM/TNDM was designed to that density actually had no effect on the outcome. Somewhere around here, Chris Lawrence responded to a vaguely similar question some year back. I believe that as the model stands, all density is supposed to do is reduce the overall casualty rate for both sides identically to adjust for very broad differences in tactics over large periods of history. I'm sure someone will correct me if I have this wrong, but I don't believe it was really intended to be used as you suggest, which implies a dependence of precise data that would have hampered it in many application. Also, since it wasn't really designed that way, it isn't certain that using it in the way you suggest would provide more accurate estimates. I would personally be very curious to hear of your findings should you study that any. I toyed with it when trying to apply the QJM to late 18th century/early 19th century battles to take the effect of skirmishers and light forces into account, but found that trying to find such detailed data for battles was often not possible. I imagine Dupuy had already encountered that data issue, and so not even contemplated trying to use it as you suggest.
IP: Logged |
Mad Dog
Senior Member
|
posted 04-20-2012 12:31 AM
Worded another way, even if troop density would be calculated to be higher than the period norm, would the commander still disperse the troops to the norm, but instead have a higher pace of combat ?I keep running into this thought problem - If in a fixed area there are more troops that can be dispersed down to the period norm, this would conceptually increase your casualty rates. On the other hand, higher density implies more troops, which implies less casualties due to increased friction. Is the whole thing a wash ? thanks, Tom
IP: Logged | |
The Dupuy Institute Forum
UBBFriend: Email This Page to Someone! 
