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Author Topic:   Accuracy and Reliability
Korman
Member
posted 06-05-2001 11:04 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Korman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
In NP&W, the following is given:

Guns/Howitzers: Acc 0.9 Rel 0.9
MRLs: Acc 0.6 Rel 0.8
Mortars: Acc 0.6 Rel 0.95
ATGMs: Acc 0.6 Rel 0.7 GE 2.0

Can you tell me what the Acc/Rel mods. are
for RPG/LAW, and for Automatic Cannon?

Thank you,
Terry

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Korman
Member
posted 06-20-2001 11:30 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Korman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Back to the top!

Terry

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Chris Lawrence
Moderator
posted 06-21-2001 09:12 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Chris Lawrence     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Sorry for the wait, but I haven't forgotten you.

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Korman
Member
posted 06-21-2001 10:57 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Korman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Thanks, Chris.

Terry

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Chris Lawrence
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posted 07-06-2001 10:54 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Chris Lawrence     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Okay Terry, the "Rules of Thumb for Estimating Accuracy" are as follows:

Weapon Type Estimated Accuracy
Small Arms 0.85
Automatic Weapons 0.70
Mortars 0.75
Rockets (unguided) 0.50
Bombs (unguided) 0.40
Standard Rifeld Artillery Weapons 0.85
Standard Smootbore Weapons 0.60
High Velocity Guns 0.90

* See special rules for accuracy of antitank guided missiles

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Chris Lawrence
Moderator
posted 07-06-2001 11:06 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Chris Lawrence     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Special Rules of Antintank Guided Missiles (ATGM) OLIs

Special rules are applied to the calculation of ATGM OLIs with respect to: accuracy, and additional factors

(1) The following factors relating accuracy to guidance are used for ATGMs

Wire guidance (daylight only) 0.80
Wire guidance (day or night) 0.85
Standard radio command 0.85
Radar Beam 0.90
Laser Beam 0.95

(2) Additional factors applied to calculation of ATGM OLIs are:

(a) Minimum range factor (MRN). Standard minimum distance before arming is is assumed to be 100 meters

MRN = 1 - [.19MinRnge - 100)/100]

Exmaples: TOW min range is 65m; MRN = 1 - .1(65 - 100)/100 = 1.035

MILAN min range is 300m; MRN = 1 - .1(300 - 100)/100 = .98

(b) Penetration factor (PEN). Standard penetration is assumed to be 500mm

PEN = 1 + [.01 x SQR(penetration - 500)]

Examples: TOW-2 penetration is 800mm; PEN = 1 + (.01 x SQR 300) = 1.17

HOT-2 penetration is 1300mm; PEN = 1 + (.01 x SQR 800) = 1.28

AT-7 penetration is 400mm; PEN = 1 + (.01 x SQR - 100) = 0.90.

(c) Velocity factor (VEL). Standard velocity is assumed to be 400 m/s. VEL = 1 + [.001(velocity - 400)]

Examples: HVM velocity is 1500 m/s; VEL = 1 + (.001 x 1100) = 2.1

DRAGON velocuty = 100 m/s; VEL = 1 + (.001 x 300) = 0.7

HELLFIRE velocity = 500 m/s; VEL = 1 + (.001 x 100) = 1.1

(d) Enhancement factor (EN). Total value cannot exceed 1.4

There are two kinds of enhancement:

- Accuracy enhancement (ENa): IF CEP is less than standrad ENa is >1.0 and <1.3. If ph is above standard ENa is >1.0 and <1.3
- Other enhancement (ENo). Currently applies only to ability to track through obscurants, or other countermeasures. Value is judgemental, betwen 1.0 and 1.3.

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Chris Lawrence
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posted 07-06-2001 11:13 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Chris Lawrence     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Oddly enough, there is no table in te TNDM on rules of thumb for reliability, and I am ystified why. It states:

(3) Reliability (R) is defend as the average number of strikes which result form a large number of tries. Reliability is an expression of the probablility of a strike given a try Weapons do not always work as intended. Some tries do not result in a strike because the wepaon misfires, jams, or otherwsie malfunctons. If the proving ground reliability is not known, a value may be assigned based on judgement. Samll arms should be assigned a reliability of 1.00 if a specific value is not known.

Recommend you use the table in NPW

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Chris Lawrence
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posted 07-06-2001 11:18 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Chris Lawrence     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
The model has mutated considerably since the original publication in NPW (1977). It actually evolved considerably during the 1980s as the QJM, before Trevor Dupuy went back in the early 1990s and re-built the model (renamed TNDM) using differential calculus for the attrition calculations (Lanchester-like equations) with the help of Jim Taylor (Naval-Post Grad school). He also changed the scoring system for armor.

If you start updating our QJM (1977) with TNDM charts and tables, then you will end up with some form of a QJM/TNDM hybrid.

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Chris Lawrence
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posted 07-06-2001 11:33 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Chris Lawrence     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
The fact that the model had been improved over the 20 years since the publication of NPW is an issue that I am sure causes lots of heartburn with people who are trying to use it. I am not sure what to do about this. The options are:

1) Publish a revised issue of NPW that uses the TNDM.

2) Make our user's guides and manual publically availible.

3) Sell the computerized program for a price the hobbyist could afford.

None of these options make business sense. To do a revised book would take one-half to a whole man-year to do. Based upon book sales....this would not be justified. Issuing out the User's Guides and Manuels would simply be giving away the model for a no profit (we sell our reports effectively at our reproduction costs). It would also undercut our ability to sell the model to government customers. It would effectively be giving away the intellectual rights to the model (which would also happen if presented in a book, which is what happened to the original QJM). Also, the differential equations used in the model cannot be replicated except in a computer program. Furthermore, as the model is owned by the Dupuy family, not the Institute, I would have to get permission from them for such a step. They almost certianly would not. Selling the computer program for cheap would do the same thing. Furthermore, the adiminstrative effort of such a sale would probably result in little profit and I do not think the sales volume would be high.
I cannot think of any financially viable or justifiable way to make the TNDM publically availible. Unfortunately, no income, no Institute. It appears that the TNDM will remain "corporate proprietary" for some time to come.

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Korman
Member
posted 07-08-2001 05:03 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Korman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Thank you. This IS a great help, and I really appreciate it.

Terry

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Alex H
Senior Member
posted 07-09-2001 12:46 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Alex H     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Chris,


Have you thought about selling/licensing the model to a gaming company? That way you would get perhaps some money up front and a licensing fee/revenue stream.

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Chris Lawrence
Moderator
posted 07-10-2001 09:13 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Chris Lawrence     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Actually, that was one of the first projects I was in charge of when I went for work with them in 1987. DMSI had actually worked on two commercial computer wargames using the QJM. After over a year of effort, the whole thing had stalled out. I then was asked to look at them to see if I could revitalize them. It became obvious that they still needed one or two man-years of effort to make them work, and with the wargame market in decline at the time.....any effort spent on this would have been a way to waste tens of thousands of dollars. I recommended that we spend no further time on the effort.

I am still leary of such an effort, as I do not think there is a lot of real money in comerical wargaming. There certianly is in "Doom" and other such games, but not in real wargames. I do note that people like Mark Hermann and Larry Bond have not given up their day jobs.

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Patrik
Member
posted 04-18-2002 08:10 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Patrik     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
I'm currently working on a wargame and i am investigating if we could use QJM in our game. I recently bought N,P&W and Attrition and find them very intresting but i wonder if anybody know were to find OLI:s for WWII weapons?

Pat

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