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Author
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Topic: Casualties in Insurgencies and Guerrila Wars
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Ubiquitous
Member
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posted 01-20-2005 04:15 PM
  
I have read several of Dupuy's books (Numbers, Predictions and War, etc.) and I like his models for predicting casualties in conventional conflicts. I am wondering, however, if there is something similar to predict casualties from insurgencies and guerrila wars (perhaps dependent on a ratio of insurgents to 'occupying forces', the terrain, the aggressiveness of both parties, etc.)? If so, can sombody explain it here or at least tell me where can I find it?
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Chris Lawrence
Moderator
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posted 01-21-2005 10:18 AM
The only thing that was actually a casualty prediction that has been published was our prediction of Bosnia done in late-1995 (post-Trevor N. Dupuy). This is report B-1 and B-2 in our TDI report file. To date, it is the only formal prediction in an OOTW/SSCO that I am aware of.We are currrently working on a casualty estimate for Iraq. This was briefly mentioned in Time magazine (see http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1101040823-682271,00.html)and USA Today (see http://www.usatoday.com/printedition/news/20040823/1a_cover23.art.htm), among others. As this is on-going work, we are not interested in discussing it except in the most general sense. Basically, nothing has been done by anyone on estimating casualties in a guerilla war. The US Army and the OR (Operations Research) community has carefully avoided this subject since the early-1970s and we are basically on new ground here. As such, we are at the cutting edge of this one, although one does not have to go very far to reach that edge.
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