The Schedule for the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17 – 19 October 2023

This is the thirteenth provisional schedule for the second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC). We have 37 presentations scheduled by 28 speakers and two group discussions planned. Each slot is an hour long, so planning for a 45-minute presentation and 15 minutes of discussion.

The conference is at 1934 Old Gallows Road, Suite 350, Vienna, VA 22182. This is basically across the street by Tysons Corner Shopping mall and the Marriot Hotel on Route 7. It is right off the Route 7 exit from 495 (the Beltway). It is at the corner of Route 7 (Leesburg Pike) and Old Gallows Road. It is in the building above the restaurant called Rangos. Parking is in the parking garage next door to it.

Conference description is here: The Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17-19 October 2023 in Tysons Corner, VA | Mystics & Statistics (

Costs, Hotels and Call for Presentations: Cost of the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17 -19 October 2023 | Mystics & Statistics ( and Hotels for the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17-19 October 2023 | Mystics & Statistics ( and Call for Presentations for the Second Historical Analysis Annual Conference (HAAC), 17-19 October 2023 | Mystics & Statistics (

The cost of the conference is $150 for entire conference or $60 a day. Please pay through PayPal ( to The conference is priced to cover the costs of the conference facility. We are also set up to take credit card payments by phone. Call The Dupuy Institute during working hours at (703) 289-0007.

We are set up for virtual presentations and virtual attendees. We are exploring the costs of having the presentations professionally recorded.


Schedule: Pike and Gallows Conference Center

Updated: revised 16 October 2023



Day 1: Analysis of Conventional Combat

0900 – 0930    Introductory remarks – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

0930 – 1030    Studying Combat: The “Base of Sand” Problem – Dr. Shawn R. Woodford

1030 – 1130    A Cautionary Tale: Alternative Interpretations of the Same Data – Jim Storr – virtual

1130 – 1230    Land Operations – consistencies and discrepancies between theory, historical analysis and doctrine – LtC. Trygve Smidt (Norway)

1230 – 1400    Lunch

1400 – 1500    Temporal and Geographic Patterns of Fatal Casualty Rates in WWI and WWII – Sasho Todorov, esquire  

1500 – 1600    The French Air Force in the 1940 Campaign – Dr. James F. Slaughter

1600 – 1700    Force Ratios – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1700 – 1800    Grinch in Ukraine – Carl Larson


Evening (1900):    Group Dinner – Rangos



Day 2: Analysis of Unconventional Warfare

0900 – 1000    Iraq, Data, Hypotheses and Afghanistan (old) –  Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1000 – 1100    Evidence of Fabricated Survey Data Collected during the War in Iraq – Dr. Michael Spagat (Royal Holloway University of London)

1100 – 1200   Urban Warfare (old) – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1200 – 1300    Lunch

1300 – 1400    The Right Way to Do Risk Analysis: A Primer and Update, With Examples from Pandemics – Dr. Doug Samuelson (InfoLogix)

1400 – 1500    Close  Combat Overmatch Weapons (SLAMMER) – Joe Follansbee (Col., USA, ret.)

1500 – 1600    Chemical Weapons in Syria – Jennifer Schlacht, M.A. – virtual

1600 – 1700    Group Discussion: The Next Middle East Wars


Evening (1900):    Group Dinner – BJs



Day 3: Other Analysis of Warfare

0900 – 1000    Addressing the Decline in War Question with New Disaggregated Data – Dr. Michael Spagat (Royal Holloway University of London)

1000 – 1100    The Application of the Scientific Method to Military History – Clinton Reilly (Computer Strategies, Australia) – virtual

1100 – 1200   The Future of TDI and work of the conference (new) – Christopher A. Lawrence (TDI)

1200 – 1300    Lunch

1300 – 1400   The Red Army’s Offensive Operations in Ukraine, 1943-44 – Dr. Richard Harrison

1400 – 1500    Russian Information Warfare Against Western Democracies Since 2013: A review and update – Dr. Doug Samuelson (InfoLogix)

1500 – 1600    Wagner Group structure and new infantry tactics – Carl Larson

1600 – 1700    Group Discussion: Russo-Ukrainian War


Evening:    Happy hour – Rangos 



Schedule: Einstein Conference Room


Day 1: Poster and Book Room

Opened at 0800


Afternoon Day 1: Air Warfare Analysis

1400 – 1500    French Aerial Bombing Problem 1914-1940 – Dr. James F. Slaughter

1500 – 1600    Temporal and Geographic Patterns of Fatal Casualty Rates in WWI and WWII (part 2 or overflow presentation) – Sasho Todorov, esquire 

1600 – 1700    Air Combat Analysis on the Eastern Front in 1944-45 – Daniel Horvath – virtual



Day 2: Analysis of Conventional Combat – all virtual

0900 – 1000    Unburdened by History: Understanding Russia’s Growing Influence in Haiti – Dr. Christopher Davis (UNCG) – virtual

1000 – 1100   World War 2 Operational Research Revisited – John Magill (UK) – virtual 

1100 – 1200   The Stochastic Salvo Model for Naval Combat: Applications to Aircraft Carrier Combat in 1942 – Geoffrey Clark – virtual

1200 – 1300    Lunch

1300 – 1400    Machine Learning the Lessons of History      Dr. Robert Helmbold – virtual (repeat)

1400 – 1500    The Promised Land: Four Thousand Years of Mid-East Conflict? – Dr. Robert Helmbold – virtual

1500 – 1600    Operation “Sea Lion”: Simulating the German 1940 invasion of England – Dr. Niall MacKay (University of York) & Dr. Ian Horwood (York St. John University) – part 1 – virtual

1600 – 1700    Operation “Sea Lion”: Simulating the German 1940 invasion of England – Dr. Jamie Wood (University of York) & Dr. Chris Price (York St. John University) – part 2 – virtual



Day 3: Researching Operations

0900 – 1000    The AEF and Consolidation of Gains Operations During the Meuse-Argonne Offensive – Dr. Christopher Davis (UNCG) – virtual

1000 – 1100    Wargaming 101 – William Sayers – virtual

1100 – 1200    The Red Army’s Plans for a Preemptive Attack in 1941 – Dr. Richard Harrison

1200 – 1300    Lunch    

1300 – 1400    Penetrate, Dis-Integrate and Exploit: The Israeli Counter-Offensive at the Suez Canal, 1973 – LtC. Nathan A Jennings, PhD – virtual

1400 – 1500    Competing Proxy Strategies in the Russo-Ukrainian War and a War of Attrition – LtC. Amos Fox – virtual

1500 – 1600    1) Patterns of Explosive Weapons Use in Ukraine – and – 2) IED Attacks Targeting State and International Armed Actors: Trend and Patterns 2013-2022 – Chiara Torelli (AOAV) – virtual

1600 – 1700    A Naval Power Index: The U.S. Navy vs three challengers – Imperial Japan, USSR and PRC China – Geoffrey Clark – virtual



The presentations from all three days of the first HAAC are here: Presentations from the first HAAC – all three days | Mystics & Statistics (

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About Christopher A. Lawrence

Christopher A. Lawrence is a professional historian and military analyst. He is the Executive Director and President of The Dupuy Institute, an organization dedicated to scholarly research and objective analysis of historical data related to armed conflict and the resolution of armed conflict. The Dupuy Institute provides independent, historically-based analyses of lessons learned from modern military experience. ... Mr. Lawrence was the program manager for the Ardennes Campaign Simulation Data Base, the Kursk Data Base, the Modern Insurgency Spread Sheets and for a number of other smaller combat data bases. He has participated in casualty estimation studies (including estimates for Bosnia and Iraq) and studies of air campaign modeling, enemy prisoner of war capture rates, medium weight armor, urban warfare, situational awareness, counterinsurgency and other subjects for the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, the Joint Staff and the U.S. Air Force. He has also directed a number of studies related to the military impact of banning antipersonnel mines for the Joint Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratories and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation. ... His published works include papers and monographs for the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment and the Vietnam Veterans of American Foundation, in addition to over 40 articles written for limited-distribution newsletters and over 60 analytical reports prepared for the Defense Department. He is the author of Kursk: The Battle of Prokhorovka (Aberdeen Books, Sheridan, CO., 2015), America’s Modern Wars: Understanding Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam (Casemate Publishers, Philadelphia & Oxford, 2015), War by Numbers: Understanding Conventional Combat (Potomac Books, Lincoln, NE., 2017) , The Battle of Prokhorovka (Stackpole Books, Guilford, CT., 2019), The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2023), Aces at Kursk (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024), Hunting Falcon: The Story of WWI German Ace Hans-Joachim Buddecke (Air World, Yorkshire, UK, 2024) and The Siege of Mariupol (Frontline Books, Yorkshire, UK, 2024). ... Mr. Lawrence lives in northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., with his wife and son.

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