The Second Test of the TNDM Battalion-Level Validations: Predicting Casualties
by Christopher A. Lawrence
SO WHERE WERE WE REALLY OFF? (WWII)
In the ease of the WWII results, we were getting results in the ball park in less than 60% of the cases for the attacker and in less than 50% of the eases in the case of the defenders. We were often significantly too low. Knowing that we were dealing with a number of Japanese engagements (seven), and they clearly fought in a manner that was different from most western European nations, we expected that they would be under-predicting, and some casualty adjustment would be necessary to reflect this.
Looking at what multiplier was needed, one notes that .39 times 2.5 = .975 while .34 times 2.5 = .85. This argues for a “fanatic” multiplier of 2.5. The non-fanatic opponent attrition multiplier is also 2.5. There was no indication that both sides should not be affected by the same multiplier.
We had now tentatively identified two “ﬁxes” to the data. l am sure someone will call them “fudges,“ but I am comfortable enough with the logic behind them (especially the fanaticism) that I would dismiss such criticism. It was now time to look at the modern data, and see what would happen if these ﬁxes were applied to it.
SO WHERE WERE WE REALLY OFF? (Post-WWII)
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